To prevent the occurrence of excavation face instability incidents during shield tunneling, this study takes the Bailuyuan tunnel of the ‘Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Water Diversion Project’ as the engineering background. A three-dimensional discrete element method simulation was employed to analyze the tunneling process, revealing the displacement response of the excavation face to various tunneling parameters. This led to the development of a risk assessment method that considers both tunneling parameters and geological conditions for deep-buried shield tunnels. The above method effectively overcomes the limitations of finite element method (FEM) studies on shield tunneling parameters and, combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), enables rapid tunnel analysis and assessment. The results demonstrate that the displacement of the excavation face in shield tunnel engineering is significantly influenced by factors such as the chamber earth pressure ratio, cutterhead opening rate, cutterhead rotation speed, and tunneling speed. Specifically, variations in the chamber earth pressure ratio have the greatest impact on horizontal displacement, occurring predominantly near the upper center of the tunnel. As the chamber earth pressure ratio decreases, horizontal displacement increases sharply from 12.9 mm to 267.3 mm. Conversely, an increase in the cutterhead opening rate leads to displacement that first rises gradually and then rapidly, from 32.1 mm to 121.1 mm. A weighted index assessment model based on AHP yields a risk level of Grade II, whereas methods from other scholars result in Grade III. By implementing measures such as adjusting the grouting range, cutterhead rotation speed, and tunneling speed, field applications confirm that the risk level remains within acceptable limits, thereby verifying the feasibility of the constructed assessment method. Construction site strategies are proposed, including maintaining a chamber earth pressure ratio greater than 1, tunneling speed not exceeding 30 mm/min, cutterhead rotation speed not exceeding 1.5 rpm, and a synchronous grouting range of 0.15 m. Following implementation, the tunnel construction successfully passed the high-risk section without any incidents. This research offers a decision-making framework for shield TBM operation safety in complex geological environments.

When mechanically excavating deep-buried large-section metro stations, stringent deformation control requirements for the surrounding rock must be adhered to. Calculations indicate that horizontal convergence in certain areas of the station exceeds acceptable limits, necessitating adjustments to construction parameters to comply with these requirements. This study, based on a project for the Chongqing Metro Line 18, establishes a three-dimensional numerical analysis model for an underground excavation station by utilizing the characteristics of the stratum-structure model. A comprehensive 3D numerical simulation was conducted to evaluate the deformation characteristics of the stratum and surrounding rock resulting from excavation, and to determine optimal excavation parameters based on deformation control. The key findings are as follows: (1) Under the original excavation design parameters, the horizontal convergence displacement at the arch foot met specification requirements and was smaller than that at the sidewall. However, the horizontal convergence displacement at the sidewall exceeded the 20 mm limit specified by the relevant codes, failing to satisfy deformation control standards. (2) The deformation of the surrounding rock increased with factors such as the distance between the excavation face and the initial support, as well as the length of the excavation step. While the spacing between adjacent pilot tunnels had a relatively minor impact on overall station deformation, the number of pilot tunnels, in conjunction with other parameters, proved beneficial for controlling surrounding rock deformation. (3) Among the parameters examined, the distance between the excavation face and the initial support, along with the excavation step length, exerted the greatest influence on deformation. Based on deformation control criteria, the optimal excavation parameters were determined as follows: the distance between the excavation face and the initial support should not exceed 6 m; the excavation step length is set to 1.5 m; the number of pilot tunnels is established at 11; and the spacing between adjacent pilot tunnels is set at 10.5 m. (4) Field monitoring data closely corresponded with the effects observed from implementing the optimized parameters, thus validating the reliability of the optimization scheme. The results of this study provide a valuable reference for the excavation of metro stations under similar conditions in the future.