Under the influence of climate change, the hydrological processes of glaciers have undergone significant changes, a fact which is seriously affecting agricultural production in the downstream region of the Tianshan Mountains, China. In order to explore the intrinsic relationship between climate change and hydrological elements, we proposed an “evaluation-driving-prediction” system to study it. First, we constructed a glacier-enhanced soil and water assessment tool model (GE-SWAT) and used a two-stage calibration method to optimize the model parameters. Next, a scenario analysis was used to evaluate the driving factors of historical runoff changes. Finally, we projected future runoff changes using bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) outputs. The results of the case study on the Jinghe River Basin in the Tianshan Mountains show that from 1963 to 2016, total runoff increased by 13.3%, 17.7% of which was due to increasing precipitation and 1.8% of which was negated by rising temperatures. The glacier runoff increased by 14.5%, mainly due to the rising temperatures. A 3.4% reduction in snowmelt was caused by a lower snowfall/precipitation ratio, which significantly reduced the snowfall from June to August. The RCM projection indicated that the warming and humidification phenomenon in the study area will continue at least through to the mid-21st century. A consistent increase in glacier runoff and total runoff is projected, but the contribution rate of the glacier runoff will have little to no change under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Our research demonstrates the simulation performance of the GE-SWAT model in a basin with moderate glacier cover. This method is shown to be efficient in quantifying the impact of climate change on glacier hydrological processes and predicting future streamflow changes, providing a good research reference for similar regions.

Water scarcity is a major issue in arid regions, and it is crucial to have an accurate understanding of water resource utilization for informed decision-making regarding water-related issues. However, due to various reasons such as inadequate measuring facilities, the actual agricultural water usage is often underestimated. The concept and methodology of the water footprint, based on a life-cycle perspective, provide a powerful tool for studying the actual water usage in agriculture. By utilizing the theories and models of water footprints, a method for reviewing the actual agricultural water usage in arid regions is proposed. Taking the Aksu region as an example, the evolution patterns and water consumption of 15 major crops over a 31-year period from 1990 to 2020 were calculated and analyzed. The research shows that the total water footprint of crops in the Aksu region has increased by nearly 3.13 times over the 31-year period, with significant accelerations in 2003 and 2016. The green water footprint accounts for an average of about 8% of the major crops, while the average water footprint of cotton accounts for over 57.2% of the total water footprint of major crops in the study area. Based on the calculation of the blue water footprint, the actual water usage in the Aksu region in 2020 was estimated to be 11.128 billion cubic meters, which is 1.30 times higher than the reported water usage, with groundwater extraction being 2.46 times higher than reported. This method of water footprint analysis for reviewing actual water usage and its application examples provide a methodological foundation and technical support for regional water resource management and policymaking.

The Ebinur Lake Basin is an ecologically sensitive area in the arid region of northwest China. In recent years, the ecological environment in the basin has continued to deteriorate, and the ecosystem function has been seriously degraded. However, among the functions of the ecosystem in the Ebinur Lake Basin, the water production function is considered to be the core upholding the ecological equilibrium and security of the basin. Water production can reflect the environmental service function, which is essential for the economic vitality and ecological well-being of the basin. The factors that impact water yield are diverse; moreover, of these, climate change and land use conversion are particularly significant. Therefore, understanding how these changes affect water yield will help to formulate proper water management strategies in the basin. Using the InVEST model, this study examined how the water yield evolved and was distributed across the Ebinur Lake Basin between 2000 and 2020 while considering both the temporal and spatial dimensions. Using this foundation, the scenario analysis approach was utilized to explore the impact of climate change and land use conversion on water yield by controlling the variables, and the response of the water yield to climate and land use change was discussed. It was concluded that water yield was on an upward trend from 2000 to 2010, was on a downward trend from 2010 to 2020, and declined from 2000 to 2020 as a whole. Regarding the water yield distribution, higher-water-producing areas were found predominantly in the northwest and southeast and along the higher-altitude rim of the basin. Among the various land categories, the primary types were grassland and unused land, both of which equally and substantially contributed to the water yield, contributing over 85% to the overall water yield. The response of the water yield varied significantly among various land use types when their areas changed, and the land conversion over this period contributed to a slight decline in water yield across the basin. The influence of climate change on water yield in the Ebinur Lake Basin during the study period surpassed that of land use by a wide margin, constituting more than 86% of the total impact. This study can provide relevant information for relevant policies and decisions on the optimal allocation of land use in the Ebinur Lake Basin and can provide scientific development for the comprehensive evaluation of water resources and sustainable development of the basin.

The authors would like to make the following corrections to the published paper

Terminal lakes in arid regions face severe degradation due to the dual pressures of climate change and anthropogenic water consumption. Traditional single-threshold methods for defining ecological water requirements often fail to balance ecosystem stability with water scarcity. To address this, this study constructs a comprehensive framework coupling “Morphometric Stability–Ecological Security Reliability–Resource Use Efficiency” to delineate the suitable ecological interval for Ebinur Lake, the largest saltwater lake in Xinjiang. Using multi-source remote sensing data (Landsat, Sentinel, ICESat, CryoSat), we reconstruct the long-term hydrological dynamics from 2001 to 2023. Results indicate a significant shrinking trend in the lake area, driven primarily by reduced inflow. We jointly consider the lake morphometric breakpoint, the ecological security baseline, and the lower bound of ecosystem service water use efficiency (ESWUE) to determine a minimum suitable ecological area of 500 km²; the regulation upper limit is set at 740 km² based on the marginal peak of ESWUE. However, monitoring data reveal that the lake falls below the minimum 500 km² baseline in approximately 40% of months, highlighting a severe ecological deficit risk. Furthermore, ESWUE analysis shows a peak in April (10 CNY/m³), suggesting that, under current climate conditions, a “Spring Surplus and Autumn Deficit” regulation strategy—advancing the replenishment window to the spring windy season—can maximize dust suppression benefits at a lower evaporative cost. This study provides a theoretical basis and methodological paradigm that will contribute to the sustainable management of shrinking terminal lakes globally.