Genomic selection is a promising breeding strategy for rapid improvement of complex traits. The objective of our study was to investigate the prediction accuracy of genomic breeding values through cross validation. The study was based on experimental data of six segregating populations from a half-diallel mating design with 788 testcross progenies from an elite maize breeding program. The plants were intensively phenotyped in multi-location field trials and fingerprinted with 960 SNP markers. We used random regression best linear unbiased prediction in combination with fivefold cross validation. The prediction accuracy across populations was higher for grain moisture (0.90) than for grain yield (0.58). The accuracy of genomic selection realized for grain yield corresponds to the precision of phenotyping at unreplicated field trials in 3–4 locations. As for maize up to three generations are feasible per year, selection gain per unit time is high and, consequently, genomic selection holds great promise for maize breeding programs.

Key message: Intensive public sector breeding efforts and public-private partnerships have led to the increase in genetic gains, and deployment of elite climate-resilient maize cultivars for the stress-prone environments in the tropics. Maize (Zea mays L.) plays a critical role in ensuring food and nutritional security, and livelihoods of millions of resource-constrained smallholders. However, maize yields in the tropical rainfed environments are now increasingly vulnerable to various climate-induced stresses, especially drought, heat, waterlogging, salinity, cold, diseases, and insect pests, which often come in combinations to severely impact maize crops. The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), in partnership with several public and private sector institutions, has been intensively engaged over the last four decades in breeding elite tropical maize germplasm with tolerance to key abiotic and biotic stresses, using an extensive managed stress screening network and on-farm testing system. This has led to the successful development and deployment of an array of elite stress-tolerant maize cultivars across sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Further increasing genetic gains in the tropical maize breeding programs demands judicious integration of doubled haploidy, high-throughput and precise phenotyping, genomics-assisted breeding, breeding data management, and more effective decision support tools. Multi-institutional efforts, especially public–private alliances, are key to ensure that the improved maize varieties effectively reach the climate-vulnerable farming communities in the tropics, including accelerated replacement of old/obsolete varieties.

Significance: Selfing species wheat are bred as pure-line varieties with stagnating yield growths. In contrast, selection gain in maize is high, owing to massive investment sustained by hybrid seed sales, coupled with an efficient exploitation of hybrid vigor. We have developed a three-step strategy for establishing a heterotic pattern, which was one of the central unsolved challenges for initiating hybrid breeding programs. The benefits of our approach are demonstrated using data for wheat, but the strategy is relevant for several autogamous crops. Our three-step approach facilitates identification of a heterotic pattern, and thus may contribute to meeting the global challenge of increasing demand for food, feed, and fuel.

Key message Genome-wide association analysis in tropical and subtropical maize germplasm revealed that MLND resistance is influenced by multiple genomic regions with small to medium effects. Abstract The maize lethal necrosis disease (MLND) caused by synergistic interaction of Maize chlorotic mottle virus and Sugarcane mosaic virus, and has emerged as a serious threat to maize production in eastern Africa since 2011. Our objective was to gain insights into the genetic architecture underlying the resistance to MLND by genome-wide association study (GWAS) and genomic selection. We used two association mapping (AM) panels comprising a total of 615 diverse tropical/subtropical maize inbred lines. All the lines were evaluated against MLND under artificial inoculation. Both the panels were genotyped using genotyping-by-sequencing. Phenotypic variation for MLND resistance was significant and heritability was moderately high in both the panels. Few promising lines with high resistance to MLND were identified to be used as potential donors. GWAS revealed 24 SNPs that were significantly associated (P < 3 × 10⁻⁵) with MLND resistance. These SNPs are located within or adjacent to 20 putative candidate genes that are associated with plant disease resistance. Ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction with five-fold cross-validation revealed higher prediction accuracy for IMAS-AM panel (0.56) over DTMA-AM (0.36) panel. The prediction accuracy for both within and across panels is promising; inclusion of MLND resistance associated SNPs into the prediction model further improved the accuracy. Overall, the study revealed that resistance to MLND is controlled by multiple loci with small to medium effects and the SNPs identified by GWAS can be used as potential candidates in MLND resistance breeding program.