Land use and land cover (LULC) form a baseline thematic map for monitoring, resource management, and planning activities and facilitate the development of strategies to balance conservation, conflicting uses, and development pressures. In this study, changes in LULC in North Sumatra, Indonesia, are simulated and predicted using an artificial-neural-network-based cellular automaton (ANN-CA) model. Five criteria (altitude, slope, aspect, distance from the road, and soil type) are used as exploratory data in the learning process of the ANN-CA model to determine their impacts on LULC changes between 1990 and 2000; among the criteria, altitude and distance from the road have strong impacts. Comparison between the predicted and the real LULC maps for 2010 illustrates high agreement, with a Kappa index of 0.83 and a percentage of correctness of 87.28%. Then, the ANN-CA model is applied to predict LULC changes in 2050 and 2070. The LULC predictions for 2050 and 2070 demonstrate high increases in plantation area of more than 4%. Meanwhile, forest and crop area are projected to decrease by approximately 1.2% and 1.6%, respectively, by 2050. By 2070, forest and crop areas will decrease by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively, indicating human influences on LULC changes from forest and cropland to plantations. This study illustrates that the simulation of LULC changes using the ANN-CA model can produce reliable predictions for future LULC.

Indonesia is the largest archipelagic country in the world, with 17,000 islands of varying sizes and elevations, from lowlands to very high mountains, stretching more than 5000 km eastward from Sabang in Aceh to Merauke in Papua. Although occupying only 1.3% of the world’s land area, Indonesia possesses the third-largest rainforest and the second-highest level of biodiversity, with very high species diversity and endemism. However, during the last two decades, Indonesia has been known as a country with a high level of deforestation, a producer of smoke from burning forests and land, and a producer of carbon emissions. The aim of this paper is to review the environmental history and the long process of Indonesian forest management towards achieving environmental sustainability and community welfare. To do this, we analyze the milestones of Indonesian forest management history, present and future challenges, and provide strategic recommendations toward a viable Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) system. Our review showed that the history of forestry management in Indonesia has evolved through a long process, especially related to contestation over the control of natural resources and supporting policies and regulations. During the process, many efforts have been applied to reduce the deforestation rate, such as a moratorium on permitting primary natural forest and peat land, land rehabilitation and soil conservation, environmental protection, and other significant regulations. Therefore, these efforts should be maintained and improved continuously in the future due to their significant positive impacts on a variety of forest areas toward the achievement of viable SFM. Finally, we conclude that the Indonesian government has struggled to formulate sustainable forest management policies that balance economic, ecological, and social needs, among others, through developing and implementing social forestry instruments, developing and implementing human resource capacity, increasing community literacy, strengthening forest governance by eliminating ambiguity and overlapping regulations, simplification of bureaucracy, revitalization of traditional wisdom, and fair law enforcement.

This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra by applying the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with biophysical factors (elevation, slope, aspect, and soil), climatic factors (19 bioclimate data sets for 2050 and 2070), and anthropogenic factors (land use land cover (LULC) changes in 2050 and 2070). The future climate data retrieved and used are the output of four climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), namely, the CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The MaxEnt modelling results showed the importance of the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the LULC variables. Styrax sumatrana rely on environmental conditions with air temperatures ranging from 13 to 19 °C. The potentially suitable land types for Styrax sumatrana are shrubs, gardens, and forests. The future predictions show that the suitable habitat for Styrax sumatrana is predicted to decrease to 3.87% in 2050 and to 3.54% in 2070 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the suitable area is predicted to decrease to 3.04% in 2050 and to 1.36% in 2070, respectively. The degradation of the suitable area is mainly due to increasing temperature and deforestation in future predictions. The modelling results illustrate that the suitable habitats of Styrax sumatrana are likely to be reduced under future climate change scenarios or lost in 2070 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The potential future extinction of this species should alert authorities to formulate conservation strategies. Results also demonstrated key variables that should be used for formulating ex situ conservation strategies.

This paper aimed to provide a narrative review of the current conditions of orangutan ecotourism on Sumatra Island, problems in the current management systems, and some recommendations for further development. Orangutan conservation centers have been developed on Sumatra Island since 1973. The Bukit Lawang Conservation Station is one of the orangutan conservation centers that have practiced ecotourism to overcome ecological and socio-economic issues. Even though the Bukit Lawang Conservation Station has operated for decades, this station has faced several issues, in particular a monetary crisis in 1997, a flash flood in 2003, and the COVID-19 pandemic. We identified that orangutan conservation centers on Sumatra Island have the potential to support orangutan ecotourism. These conservation centers have ecological support, available facilities, and rich local wisdom that can provide added value for orangutan ecotourism. Therefore, we propose that the development of orangutan ecotourism on Sumatra Island should accommodate surrounding communities through community-based wildlife ecotourism. We also recommend the following strategies to develop orangutan ecotourism on Sumatra Island: (1) mapping the location and distribution of wild orangutans in their natural habitats; (2) managing captive and semi-captive orangutans in conservation centers; (3) provision of tour packages; (4) community empowerment; (5) institutional strengthening of community-based ecotourism management (CBEM); (6) developing ecotourism through a benefit-sharing model; (7) anticipating and minimizing the negative impacts of ecotourism on orangutans; and (8) integrating orangutan tourism with local wisdom.

Styrax sumatrana is the prestigious tree from North Sumatra. The resin which is a product from this tree has high demand and take a role as the primary income for farmer around the forest. However, the climate change along with the land conversion, threatens the species distribution . This paper aims to analyse the variable that contributes to Styrax sumatrana distribution and predict the potential distribution area of the species in North Sumatra Province . Several variables, such as elevation, slope, aspect, climate condition and land use land cover (LULC), were used to analyse the contribution for Styrax sumatrana distribution. The analysis uses the Maximum entropy model to examine the variable contribution for species distribution. The result shows that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter has a higher contribution for species distribution followed by elevation and LULC. The climate condition has a great impact by 28.5% than the other variable. The potential area that is suitable for Styrax sumatrana distribution was 8.91% or around 663,221.94 ha from a total of region.

The Sumatran Tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae Pocock, 1929) is a critically endangered tiger subspecies facing serious challenges such as land cover change and prey population declines. This study generated a species distribution model (SDM) of Sumatran Tigers in Gunung Leuser National Park (GLNP) on the island of Sumatra, Indonesia, by integrating predictive prey distribution data and environmental variables. The algorithms used are maximum entropy and random forest. Modeling results showed a positive correlation between the presence of prey animals and forest cover on Sumatran Tiger habitat suitability. Climatic factors and land cover directly affected prey animal distribution, while land cover and prey animal presence affected Sumatran Tiger habitat suitability. Despite a large suitable habitat for Sumatran Tiger (80.4%), the prey distribution range in GLNP is relatively narrow (48.6%), with only 40.3% of the area showing overlap. This highlights the vulnerability of prey availability and the need to boost prey populations to ensure the long-term survival of Sumatran Tigers in GLNP.