This paper examines the available information on the potential for climate‐change impacts on mycotoxigenic fungi and mycotoxin contamination of food crops pre‐ and postharvest. It considers the effect of changes in temperature/water availability on mycotoxin contamination, especially incidences where aflatoxin B ₁ and ochratoxin A production has been influenced. The potential of using preharvest models to predict risk from deoxynivalenol (DON) in wheat, fumonisin B ₁ in maize and aflatoxins in maize and peanuts in different continents are considered in the context of potential for adaptation to include climate‐change scenarios. Available information suggests that slightly elevated CO ₂ concentrations and interactions with temperature and water availability may stimulate growth of some mycotoxigenic species, especially under water stress. The accumulated knowledge on interacting conditions of water/temperature effects on optimum and boundary conditions for growth and mycotoxin production has been used to predict the effects that +3 and +5°C increases under water stress would have on growth/mycotoxin production by mycotoxigenic species. Various spatial scales, from toxin gene expression to regional approaches using geostatistics, are examined for their use in understanding the impact that climate change may have on food contamination in developing and developed countries. The potential for using an integrated systems approach to link gene expression data, phenotypic toxin production under different interacting abiotic conditions is discussed using Fusarium species and DON as examples. Such approaches may be beneficial for more accurate predictions of risk from mycotoxins on a regional basis and also the potential for new emerging toxin threats.

This review considers the available information on the potential impact of key environmental factors and their interactions on the molecular ecology, growth and aflatoxin production by Aspergillus flavus in vitro and in maize grain. The recent studies which have been carried out to examine the impact of water activity × temperature on aflatoxin biosynthesis and phenotypic aflatoxin production are examined. These have shown that there is a direct relationship between the relative expression of key regulatory and structural genes under different environmental conditions which correlate directly with aflatoxin B1 production. A model has been developed to integrate the relative expression of 10 biosynthetic genes in the pathway, growth and aflatoxin B₁ (AFB₁) production which was validated under elevated temperature and water stress conditions. The effect of interacting conditions of a_w × temperature × elevated CO₂ (2 × and 3 × existing levels) are detailed for the first time. This suggests that while such interacting environmental conditions have little effect on growth they do have a significant impact on aflatoxin biosynthetic gene expression (structural aflD and regulatory aflR genes) and can significantly stimulate the production of AFB₁. While the individual factors alone have an impact, it is the combined effect of these three abiotic factors which have an impact on mycotoxin production. This approach provides data which is necessary to help predict the real impacts of climate change on mycotoxigenic fungi.

Climate change (CC) scenarios are predicted to have significant effects on the security of staple commodities. A key component of this impact is the infection of such crops by mycotoxigenic moulds and contamination with mycotoxins. The impacts of CC on mycotoxigenic fungi requires examination of the impacts of the three-way interactions between elevated CO2 (350–400 vs 650–1200 ppm), temperature increases (+2–5 °C) and drought stress on growth/mycotoxin production by key spoilage fungi in cereals and nuts. This review examines the available evidence on the impacts of interacting CC factors on growth and mycotoxin production by key mycotoxigenic fungi including Alternaria, Aspergillus, Fusarium and Penicillium species. Aspergillus flavus responsible for producing aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) is a class 1A carcinogen and its growth appears to be unaffected by CC factors. However, there is a significant stimulation of AFB1 production both in vitro and in vivo in maize. In contrast, studies on Aspergillus section Circumdati and Nigri species responsible for ochratoxin A contamination of a range of commodities and F. verticillioides and fumonisins suggest that some species are more resilient than others, especially in terms of mycotoxin production. Acclimatisation of mycotoxigenic fungal pathogens to CC factors may result in increased disease and perhaps mycotoxin contamination of staple cereals. Predictive modelling approaches to help identify regions where maximum impact may occur in terms of infection by mycotoxigenic fungi and toxin contamination of staple crops is hindered by the lack of reliable inputs on effects of the interacting CC factors. The present available knowledge is discussed in the context of the resilience of staple food chains and the impact that interacting CC factors may have on the availability of food in the future