Relocation of earthquakes recorded by the agency for meteorology, climatology and geophysics (BMKG) in Indonesia and inversions of global positioning system (GPS) data reveal clear seismic gaps to the south of the island of Java. These gaps may be related to potential sources of future megathrust earthquakes in the region. To assess the expected inundation hazard, tsunami modeling was conducted based on several scenarios involving large tsunamigenic earthquakes generated by ruptures along segments of the megathrust south of Java. The worst-case scenario, in which the two megathrust segments spanning Java rupture simultaneously, shows that tsunami heights can reach ~ 20 m and ~ 12 m on the south coast of West and East Java, respectively, with an average maximum height of 4.5 m along the entire south coast of Java. These results support recent calls for a strengthening of the existing Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS), especially in Java, the most densely populated island in Indonesia.

SUMMARY: High seismicity rates in eastern Indonesia occur due to the complex interaction of several tectonic plates which resulted in two deadly, destructive earthquake sequences that occurred in Lombok Island and the city of Palu, Sulawesi in 2018. The first sequence began in July with an Mw 6.4 event near Lombok, culminating in an Mw 7.0 event 8 d later. This was then followed by a nearby Mw 6.9 event 12 d later. Approximately 1000 km to the northeast, a separate sequence began several weeks later near Palu where an Mw 7.5 event occurred that triggered a tsunami. In this study, we present hypocentre relocations for both earthquake sequences as well as all other regional earthquakes in eastern Indonesia. The relocations were performed using a teleseismic double-difference relocation method and arrival times for P and S waves from stations at local, regional, and teleseismic distances. The catalogue and phase data were taken from the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) of Indonesia and the International Seismological Centre (ISC) for the period of April 2009 through November 2018. The relocated catalogue provides an improved view of seismicity in eastern Indonesia over the study period, sharpening locations and interpretations of seismogenic features throughout the region. In the Lombok area, the relocated earthquakes clearly show a backarc thrust to the north of the Sunda-Banda Arc transition zone. The relocated aftershocks show that the destructive Mw 7.0 and Mw 6.9 earthquakes of the Lombok sequence ruptured two different regions: The Mw 7.0 earthquake propagated westward, whereas the Mw 6.9 earthquake propagated eastward. The entire sequence of Lombok earthquakes was most likely started by the Mw 6.4 event as the initial event or foreshock, which then triggered backarc thrusts on both sides. Several weeks later and far to the northeast, the Mw 7.5 Palu earthquake occurred along the Palu-Koro Fault, filling a seismic gap that had not ruptured in an Mw 6.0 event or larger since at least 1900. The distribution of aftershocks indicates that the northern part of the Palu-Koro Fault has lower relative seismicity rates than the southern part at shallow depths, and that off fault aftershocks are mostly located to the east of the Palu-Koro Fault.

We determined earthquake locations through re-picking of P- and S-wave arrival times recorded by BMKG network. Earthquake locations were determined using Hypoellipse code that employs a single event determination method. We then relocated the events using hypocenter double-difference method. We also conducted focal mechanism analysis to estimate the type of fault slip. The results indicate improved hypocenter locations, where patterns of seismicity in West Java were delineated clearly. There are several clusters of earthquakes at depths ≤ 30 km, which are probably related to the Cimandiri, Lembang, and Baribis faults. In addition, there is another cluster in Garut trending southwest-northeast, which is possibly related to a local fault. Histograms of travel-time residuals depict good results, in which travel-time residuals are mostly close to zero. Source mechanism throughout the Lembang fault indicates a left-lateral strike slip in agreement with previous studies. The Cimandiri fault also shows a left-lateral slip, but in the south it shows a thrust fault mechanism. While the source mechanisms of the western part of the Baribis fault indicate a thrust fault and the cluster of events in Garut shows a right-lateral slip if they are related to a local fault.

High seismicity rates in and around West Java and Sumatra occur as a result of the Indo-Australian plate converging with and subducting beneath the Sunda plate. Large megathrust events associated with this process likely pose a major earthquake and tsunami hazard to the surrounding community, but further effort is required to help understand both the likelihood and frequency of such events. With this in mind, we exploit catalog seismic data sourced from the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) of Indonesia and the International Seismological Centre (ISC) for the period April 2009 through to July 2020, in order to conduct earthquake hypocenter relocation using a teleseismic double-difference method. Our results reveal a large seismic gap to the south of West Java and southeast Sumatra, which is in agreement with a previous GPS study that finds the region to be a potential future source of megathrust earthquakes. To investigate this further, tsunami modeling was conducted in the region for two scenarios based on the estimated seismicity gaps and the existence of a backthrust fault. We show that the maximum tsunami height could be up to 34 m along the west coast of southernmost Sumatra and along the south coast of Java near the Ujung Kulon Peninsula. This estimate is comparable with the maximum tsunami height predicted by a previous study of southern Java in which earthquake sources were derived from the inversion of GPS data. However, the present study extends the analysis to southeast Sumatra and demonstrates that estimating rupture from seismic gaps can lead to reliable tsunami hazard assessment in the absence of GPS data.

Summary: On 28 September 2018, 18:02:44 local time, the Magnitude 7.5 earthquake accompanied by a tsunami and massive liquefaction devastated Palu region in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Comprehensive post-disaster surveys have been conducted, including field survey of surface ruptures, LiDAR, multibeam-bathymetry mapping, and seismic-reflection survey. We used these data to map fault ruptures and measure offsets accurately. In contrast to previous remote-sensing studies, suggesting that the earthquake broke an immature, hidden-unknown fault inland, our research shows that it occurred on the mappable, mature geological fault line offshore. The quake ruptured 177-km long multi-fault segments, bypassing two large releasing bends (first offshore and second inland). The rupture onset occurred at a large fault discontinuity underwater in a transition zone from regional extensional to compressional tectonic regimes. Then it propagated southward along the ∼110-km submarine fault line before reaching the west side of Palu City. Hence, its long submarine ruptures might trigger massive underwater landslides and significantly contribute to tsunami generation in Palu Bay. The rupture continued inland for another 67 km, showing predominantly left-lateral strike-slip up to 6-m, accompanied by a 5–10% dip-slip on average. The 7km sizeable releasing bend results in a pull-apart Palu basin. Numerous normal faults occur along the eastern margin. They cut the Quaternary sediments, and some of them ruptured during the 2018 event. Our fault-rupture map on mature straight geological fault lines allows the possible occurrence of early and persistent ‘supershear’, but significant asperities and barriers on segment boundaries may prohibit it.