The growth of the Indonesian population has led to an increase in the demand for rice, which the country has yet to satisfy. Indonesia needs a comprehensive strategy that integrates meaningful efforts to increase its agricultural production. This study aims to review the examined trends in rice yield in Indonesia for 70 years after Indonesia’s independence (1945–2016) followed by the identification of the application technology and factors that contribute to increasing rice yields to forecast sustainable food security scenarios up to 2030. This article reviews the results of research on rice production technology in Indonesia from 1945 to 2016, and the outlook for 2030. This paper examines the main points of the Indonesian transformation of rice technology: improvement of rice varieties, integrated crop management, innovations in agricultural machinery, and the Integrated Cropping Calendar Information System (ICCIS). We found that transformation has helped Indonesia increased its rice yields from 3 t ha⁻¹ prior to 1961 to 4.6 t ha⁻¹ in 1985, stagnated in 1990, and increased again in 2017 to 5.46 t ha⁻¹. The increase in yield was sustained by an increase in the harvested area owing to cropping index (CI) innovation. Food security and sustainable development remain the primary goals of Indonesia’s agricultural sector. The application of appropriate technologies and institutional innovations can assist Indonesia in achieving its food security. Therefore, the transformation of technological innovations will continue to be an essential driver of future agricultural growth, including greater use of crop varieties, machinery, and land/institutional reforms.

Climate change and its variability are some of the most critical threats to sustainable agriculture, with potentially severe consequences on Indonesia’s agriculture, such as changes in rainfall patterns, especially the onset of the wet season and the temporal distribution of rainfall. Most Indonesian farmers receive support from agricultural extension services, and therefore, design their agricultural calendar based on personal experience without considering global climate phenomena, such as La Niña and El Niño, which difficult to interpret on a local scale. This paper describes the Integrated Cropping Calendar Information System (ICCIS) as a mechanism for adapting to climate variability. The ICCIS contains recommendations on planting time, cropping pattern, planting area, varieties, fertilizers, agricultural machinery, potential livestock feed, and crop damage due to climate extremes for rice, maize, and soybean. To accelerate the dissemination of information, the ICCIS is presented in an integrated web-based information system. The ICCIS is disseminated to extension workers and farmers by Task Force of the Assessment Institute for Agricultural Technology (AIAT) located in each province. Based on the survey results, it is known that the ICCIS adoption rate is moderate to high. The AIAT must actively encourage and support the ICCIS Task Force team in each province. Concerning the technological recommendations, it is necessary to update the recommendations for varieties, fertilizer, and feed to be more compatible with local conditions. More accurate information and more intensive dissemination can enrich farmers’ knowledge, allowing for a better understanding of climate hazards and maintaining agricultural production.

In the future, Indonesia will become increasingly dependent on dryland agriculture. New adaptive technology innovations able to transform drylands into arable land throughout almost the entire year have been developed to anticipate global climate change in tropical areas. This article reviews the results of research on the importance of climate and water management technology to increase the crop index and productivity in Indonesia. We found that irrigation treatment at 80% of the FAO-recommended rate resulted in the highest maize stover yield (around 13.65–14.10 t h⁻¹). Irrigation treatment at 60% of the FAO-recommended rate for soybeans (at 0.24 L s⁻¹ h⁻¹) produced good-quality soybean seeds. The use of existing water resources can increase the planted area from 1.25 to 1.67 and increase the cropping index during the second planting season in the same area. Agricultural systems based on water management can improve their crop index and productivity, and anticipate climate change to increase farmers’ incomes and wellbeing. Support measures in the form of regulations, legislation, acts, programmes, and policies from central and local governments for land use and management are crucial. The development of infrastructure by establishing water management institutions at the village/farmers’ group levels to allocate irrigation water is a leverage point to develop dryland agricultural systems appropriately and judiciously to assist in sustainable development.

Climate change has been affecting agricultural water resources dynamics spatially and temporally. This article presents analysis results of climate change impact on agricultural water availability in Cimanuk Watershed, Indonesia. STREAM was utilized to model agricultural water availability through FAO MOSAICC web application. Climate spatial data time-series were generated using 3 Global Climate Model (GCM), i.e.,: CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, and MPI-ESM-MR following two climate change scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5. Model inputs were split into three periods of 1981–2010 (historical), 2010–2039 (near-future), and 2040–2069 (far-future). Historical data model validation showed the efficiency coefficient of the observed and simulated discharge data ratio was 0.68. The results showed a decreasing volumetric water availability from all generated climate data and scenarios, identified by comparing the discharge normal distribution of the historical and future data periods. Whereas, trend analysis of RCP4.5 scenario showed increasing maximum discharge of Cimanuk river using CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-MR GCM’s data, with a Mann–Kendall coefficient of 3.23 and 3.57. These results indicate a different agricultural water balance status within the watershed area, particularly a “very critical” water balance in Indramayu and Majalengka, “critical” in Garut, and “close to critical” in Sumedang Regency.

Indonesia has various rainfall characteristics that result variations in the initial planting time and cropping patterns. The Integrated Cropping Calendar Information System is a guidance for planting rice, maize, and soybean at the right time with sufficient water availability conditions. This paper aimed to analyse the planting schedule and potential planting area of rice, maize, and soybeans in the dry season 2020 at 7,062 sub-districts in Indonesia. Input data were rainfall prediction, spatial-based ETP, soil water availability, wetland area, and rice cropping index. The stages were the analyses on rainfall, calculating soil water balance, and determining potential planting area. The results illustrated that the mean rainfall intensity and rainfall intensities of <60 and 200-300 mm mo⁻¹ were predicted as the widest rainfall coverages in April-June and July-September. The potential planting areas for rice, maize, and soybean were 5,259,661, 1,263,575, and 559,545 ha, respectively. Rice and maize initial planting periods were mainly in April II-II, while soybean in July III-August. Potential planting area for rice can be expanded to become 6,674,428 ha by applying additional water supply from alternative sources at the potential areas of maize and soybean.

The relative impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events of Rice Cropping Calendar on Equatorial and Monsoon Region of Indonesia were studied. The spatial distribution of partial correlations between rainfalls with the ENSO and IOD over West Sumatera and West Java indicated a significant impact on rainfall anomalies normally along the period of September – November. The ENSO and IOD events, which is known as a monsoon type, had a wider impact in West Java, especially over northern of West Java. On the other hand, there was only a little impact of the ENSO and IOD on rainfall anomalies in the southern-west of West Sumatera. This strength was shown to be associated with the evolution of distinct weather types revealed by Pearson analysis. In these regions, the same impact of the ENSO and IOD on the width of planting area was very weak in the period of December-March whereas that in the period of June-November the impact on West Sumatera reached only 10% moreover, the impact in West Java could reach up to 80%. On the period scales, the ENSO and IOD events had significant impacts to delayed onsets of rice cropping calendar in which they were more intense than previous ones. In general, the magnitude of ENSO-delayed onsets was greater than delays to the IOD. The period-stratified ENSO variability during each of the months from September to November had a significant impact of delayed planting 2 to 4 dekads in West Sumatera and 4 to 6 dekads on West Java. This confirmed that strong ENSO events indeed affected the southern of West Sumatera and northern of West Java. Meanwhile, the period-stratified IOD variability on West Sumatera and West Java had a significant impact of delayed planting 2 to 4 dekads.