Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are among the most dangerous natural hazards because they can cause severe economic losses and high mortality. Climate risk is defined as a metric that depends on social vulnerability and the occurrence of natural hazards. A social vulnerability index was constructed for this study using two metrics: the degree of local marginalization and the local social gap. The accumulated rainfall and duration of extreme precipitation associated with TC passages are examined as a natural hazard during the period 1981–2017. TC days are depicted as days when TC‐related rainfall exceeded the 95th percentile of daily precipitation from May to November, defined as summer precipitation. In this way, changes in climate risk under El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are explored to determine regions where both social vulnerability and TC days are high. These changes are useful to find out when disasters have more chances to occur. In the present study, climate risk was found to increase more than 80% from average in southwestern Mexico during strong El Niño years. Under neutral conditions, climate risk values rise to more than 40% than average over northwestern Mexico. Under strong La Niña conditions, climate risk increases by more than 80% from average over the eastern coast of Mexico. Our approach is validated through a comparison between anomalies in climate risk and disaster costs (socioeconomic impacts). Both local vulnerability and ENSO conditions exacerbate socioeconomic impacts associated with TCs, and an analysis of linear trends in TC rainfall and TC days reveals that most of the coastal regions in Mexico have a significant rising trend in both variables. Thus, Mexico should be prepared to face more TC extreme rainfall events. Suggestions for how Mexico can meet the objectives of international risk agendas are discussed.

On a global scale, African dust is known to be one of the major sources of mineral dust particles, as these particles can be efficiently transported to different parts of the planet. Several studies have suggested that the Yucatán Peninsula could be influenced by such particles, especially in July, associated with the strengthening of the Caribbean low-level jet. Although these particles have the potential to significantly impact the local air quality, as shown elsewhere (especially with respect to particulate matter, PM), the arrival and impact of African dust in Mexican territory has not been quantitatively reported to date. Two short-term field campaigns were conducted to confirm the arrival of African dust on the Yucatán Peninsula in July 2017 and July 2018 at the Mérida atmospheric observatory (20.98^∘ N, 89.64^∘ W). Aerosol particles were monitored at ground level using different online and off-line sensors. Several PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ peaks were observed during both sampling periods, with a relative increase in the PM levels ranging between 200 % and 500 % with respect to the normal background conditions. Given that these peaks were found to be highly correlated with supermicron particles and chemical elements typically found in mineral dust particles, such as Al, Fe, Si, and K, they are linked with African dust. This conclusion is supported by combining back trajectories with vertical profiles from radiosondes, reanalysis, and satellite images to show that the origin of the air masses arriving at Mérida was the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The good agreement found between the measured PM₁₀ concentrations and the estimated dust mixing ratio content from MERRA-2 (Version 2 of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) corroborates the conclusion that the degradation of the local (and likely regional) air quality in Mérida is a result of the arrival of African dust.

The Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) largely modulate the zonal wind in the tropics. Previous studies showed that QBO phases produce changes in deep convection through an increase/decrease in the tropopause height over the tropics and subtropics. This study investigates the combined effects of QBO and ENSO on tropical cyclone activity by modulating tropopause height. We found that tropopause height increases over the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean region, and the Western North Atlantic Ocean during La Niña + QBOW, allowing deeper tropical convection to develop over those regions. As a consequence, TC activity over those regions is not only increased in number but also enhanced in intensity. Conversely, during El Niño + QBOE, most deep tropical convection is inhibited over those same regions due to the decrease in tropopause height over the subtropics. We conclude that QBO effects on TCs and deep convection should be studied in combination with ENSO. Additional comparative studies using long record data at high vertical resolution are needed to fully understand to what extent QBO interacts with ENSO in the lower tropical stratosphere and upper tropical troposphere.

Eight years of upper-tropospheric (UT) ice crystal measurements with the backscatter cloud probe (BCP), installed on commercial aircraft operated as part of the In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS), have been analyzed to assess the frequency and characteristics of extreme ice crystal events (EIEs), defined in this study as encounters with clouds that have number concentrations exceeding 5000 L⁻¹. A total of 3196 events, in clouds of horizontal extent ≥ 2.5 km, were identified during the period from December 2011 to March 2020 in the latitude band between 30^∘ S and 30^∘ N. Regions of anthropogenic sources of carbon monoxide, with particles that can alter cloud microphysics, were attributed to these EIEs in UT clouds using the SOFT-IO model. The evaluation of low- and upper-level kinematic variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) reanalysis, combined with spatial distributions of aerosol optical depth and regions of biomass burning, highlights the physical mechanisms by which the particles are lofted to flight levels in regions of deep convection. The maps of lightning frequency, derived from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), provide additional evidence of the role of deep convection in transporting aerosol particles, cloud hydrometeors and carbon monoxide to aircraft cruising altitudes. The evaluation of aerosol particle mass concentrations and composition from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) contributes additional evidence for a link between regions of EIEs and surface emissions of dust, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulfate particles. Given the composition of the source aerosols and the role of deep convection in their transport to the UT, the sampled ice clouds likely originate from the homogeneous or heterogeneous freezing of droplets formed on these particles, as has been reported in previous studies. The results from this study, which have been obtained from a large sample of measurements, have ramifications related to satellite measurement validation, weather forecasting and climate change. In addition, over 2000 of the randomly sampled clouds had derived ice water contents larger than 1 g m⁻³, a concentration that is considered potentially hazardous to commercial aircraft operations.

Extensions of the standard model with gauge symmetry SU(3)c$\bigotimes${}SU(4)L$\bigotimes${}U(1)X (3-4-1 extensions) where anomaly cancellation takes place between the fermion families (three-family models) predict the existence of two new heavy neutral gauge bosons which transmit flavor changing neutral currents at tree level. In this work, in the context of a three-family 3-4-1 extension which does not contain particles with exotic electric charges, we study the constraints coming from neutral meson mixing on the parameters of the extension associated to tree-level flavor changing neutral current effects. Taking into account experimental measurements of observables related to K and B meson mixing and including new CP-violating phases, we study the resulting bounds for angles and phases in the mixing matrix for the down-quark sector, as well as the implications of these bounds for the modifications in the amplitudes of the clean rare decays K+$\rightarrow${}$\pi${}+$\nu${}\ifmmode\bar\else\textasciimacron\fi{}$\nu${}, KL$\rightarrow${}$\pi${}0$\nu${}$\nu${}\ifmmode\bar\else\textasciimacron\fi{}, KL$\rightarrow${}$\pi${}0l+l- (l=e, $\mu${}) and Bd/s$\rightarrow${}$\mu${}+$\mu${}-.