The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP5) is frequently used to force regional climate models for dynamic downscaling and projections, which decision makers in turn use for future plans in different sectors. It is, therefore, highly important to assess their performance in order to use them as reliable tools. A weather-type approach for the evaluation of the performance of CMIP5 models is employed in this study, with the objective of providing insight into model errors under a set of distinct synoptic conditions and circulation types associated with the rainy season over Mexico and Central America. The Self-Organizing Maps algorithm is used to identify the main weather regimes (constructed from sea level pressure, specific humidity, and low-level winds at a daily time-scale), which are then evaluated against reanalysis. The results show that model performance depends on the weather type in all of the variables except for sea level pressure, which confirms the usefulness of this approach. The models simulate better the humidity patterns that show weak deviations from the climatological norm. In addition, the wind pattern representing the Caribbean Low Level Jet is well reproduced by all the models. The results show the capacity of this methodology for determining the extent to which climate models represent the main circulation patterns that characterize the climate and local weather in Mexico.

Eight years of upper-tropospheric (UT) ice crystal measurements with the backscatter cloud probe (BCP), installed on commercial aircraft operated as part of the In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS), have been analyzed to assess the frequency and characteristics of extreme ice crystal events (EIEs), defined in this study as encounters with clouds that have number concentrations exceeding 5000 L⁻¹. A total of 3196 events, in clouds of horizontal extent ≥ 2.5 km, were identified during the period from December 2011 to March 2020 in the latitude band between 30^∘ S and 30^∘ N. Regions of anthropogenic sources of carbon monoxide, with particles that can alter cloud microphysics, were attributed to these EIEs in UT clouds using the SOFT-IO model. The evaluation of low- and upper-level kinematic variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) reanalysis, combined with spatial distributions of aerosol optical depth and regions of biomass burning, highlights the physical mechanisms by which the particles are lofted to flight levels in regions of deep convection. The maps of lightning frequency, derived from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), provide additional evidence of the role of deep convection in transporting aerosol particles, cloud hydrometeors and carbon monoxide to aircraft cruising altitudes. The evaluation of aerosol particle mass concentrations and composition from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) contributes additional evidence for a link between regions of EIEs and surface emissions of dust, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulfate particles. Given the composition of the source aerosols and the role of deep convection in their transport to the UT, the sampled ice clouds likely originate from the homogeneous or heterogeneous freezing of droplets formed on these particles, as has been reported in previous studies. The results from this study, which have been obtained from a large sample of measurements, have ramifications related to satellite measurement validation, weather forecasting and climate change. In addition, over 2000 of the randomly sampled clouds had derived ice water contents larger than 1 g m⁻³, a concentration that is considered potentially hazardous to commercial aircraft operations.

The present study aims to determine the factors influencing the transition from shallow to deep convection in the trade winds region using an observational approach, with emphasis in the Yucatan Peninsula in eastern Mexico. The methodology is based on a discrimination of two regimes of convection: a shallow cumulus regime, usually with little or no precipitation associated, and an afternoon deep convection regime, with large amounts of precipitation, preceded by a short period of shallow convection. Then, composites of meteorological fields at surface and several vertical levels, for each of the two convection regimes, are compared to infer which meteorological factors are involved in the development of deep convection in this region. Also, the relationship between meteorological variables and selected regime-transition parameters is evaluated only for deep convection regime days. Results indicate the importance of dynamic factors, such as the meridional wind component, in the transition from shallow to deep convection. As expected, thermodynamic variables, such as the low-level specific humidity in the shallow cumulus layer, also contribute to the regime transition. The presence of a southerly component of wind at low- to mid-levels during the early morning in deep convection days provides the shallow cumulus with a more favorable environment so that transition can occur, since abundant moisture from the Caribbean is supplied through this prevailing southern wind. The results can be relevant for reducing uncertainties regarding some important parameters in global and regional models, which could lead to improved simulations of the transition from shallow to deep convection and precipitation.

In this study, twenty large-scale circulation patterns are identified to generate a synoptic classification of Weather Types (WT) over a region that comprises Mexico, the Intra-Americas Seas, Central America, and northern South America. This classification is performed using Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) with mean sea-level pressure standardized anomalies from reanalysis. The influence of quasi-permanent pressure centers over the region, such as North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) and North Pacific High (NPH) are well captured. Seasonal variability of high-pressure centers for dry (November–April) and wet (May–October) periods over the entire region are also well represented in amplitude and pattern among the WTs. The NASH influence and intensification of the Caribbean low-level jet and the North American monsoon system is well captured. During the dry period, a strong trough wind advects cold air masses from mid-latitudes to the subtropics over the western Atlantic Ocean. High-frequency transitions among WTs tend to cluster around the nearest neighbors in SOM space, while low-frequency transitions occur along columns instead of rows in the SOM matrix. Low-frequency transitions are related to intraseasonal and seasonal scales. The constructed catalog can identify near-surface atmospheric circulation patterns from a unified perspective of synoptic climate variability, and it is in high agreement with previous studies for the region.