The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (https://www.nhm.ac.uk/our-science/our-work/biodiversity/predicts.html)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

1 Evaluating the distribution of species richness where biodiversity is high but has been insufficiently sampled is not an easy task. Species distribution modelling has become a useful approach for predicting their ranges, based on the relationships between species records and environmental variables. Overlapping predictions of individual distributions could be a useful strategy for obtaining estimates of species richness and composition in a region, but these estimates should be evaluated using a proper validation process, which compares the predicted richness values and composition with accurate data from independent sources. 2 In this study, we propose a simple approach to estimate model performance for several distributional predictions generated simultaneously. This approach is particularly suitable when species distribution modelling techniques that require only presence data are used. 3 The individual distributions for the 370 known amphibian species of Mexico were predicted using maxent to model data on their known presence (66 113 presence-only records). Distributions were subsequently overlapped to obtain a prediction of species richness. Accuracy was assessed by comparing the overall species richness values predicted for the region with observed and predicted values from 118 well-surveyed sites, each with an area of c. 100 km², which were identified using species accumulation curves and nonparametric estimators. 4 The derived models revealed a remarkable heterogeneity of species richness across the country, provided information about species composition per site and allowed us to obtain a measure of the spatial distribution of prediction errors. Examining the magnitude and location of model inaccuracies, as well as separately assessing errors of both commission and omission, highlights the inaccuracy of the predictions of species distribution models and the need to provide measures of uncertainty along with the model results. 5 The combination of a species distribution modelling method like maxent and species richness estimators offers a useful tool for identifying when the overall pattern provided by all model predictions might be representing the geographical patterns of species richness and composition, regardless of the particular quality or accuracy of the predictions for each individual species.

Cities can host significant biological diversity. Yet, urbanisation leads to the loss of habitats, species, and functional groups. Understanding how multiple taxa respond to urbanisation globally is essential to promote and conserve biodiversity in cities. Using a dataset encompassing six terrestrial faunal taxa (amphibians, bats, bees, birds, carabid beetles and reptiles) across 379 cities on 6 continents, we show that urbanisation produces taxon-specific changes in trait composition, with traits related to reproductive strategy showing the strongest response. Our findings suggest that urbanisation results in four trait syndromes (mobile generalists, site specialists, central place foragers, and mobile specialists), with resources associated with reproduction and diet likely driving patterns in traits associated with mobility and body size. Functional diversity measures showed varied responses, leading to shifts in trait space likely driven by critical resource distribution and abundance, and taxon-specific trait syndromes. Maximising opportunities to support taxa with different urban trait syndromes should be pivotal in conservation and management programmes within and among cities. This will reduce the likelihood of biotic homogenisation and helps ensure that urban environments have the capacity to respond to future challenges. These actions are critical to reframe the role of cities in global biodiversity loss.