Summary: Recently, interest in species distribution modelling has increased following the development of new methods for the analysis of presence‐only data and the deployment of these methods in user‐friendly and powerful computer programs. However, reliable inference from these powerful tools requires that several assumptions be met, including the assumptions that observed presences are the consequence of random or representative sampling and that detectability during sampling does not vary with the covariates that determine occurrence probability. Based on our interactions with researchers using these tools, we hypothesized that many presence‐only studies were ignoring important assumptions of presence‐only modelling. We tested this hypothesis by reviewing 108 articles published between 2008 and 2012 that used the MAXENT algorithm to analyse empirical (i.e. not simulated) data. We chose to focus on these articles because MAXENT has been the most popular algorithm in recent years for analysing presence‐only data. Many articles (87%) were based on data that were likely to suffer from sample selection bias; however, methods to control for sample selection bias were rarely used. In addition, many analyses (36%) discarded absence information by analysing presence–absence data in a presence‐only framework, and few articles (14%) mentioned detection probability. We conclude that there are many misconceptions concerning the use of presence‐only models, including the misunderstanding that MAXENT, and other presence‐only methods, relieve users from the constraints of survey design. In the process of our literature review, we became aware of other factors that raised concerns about the validity of study conclusions. In particular, we observed that 83% of articles studies focused exclusively on model output (i.e. maps) without providing readers with any means to critically examine modelled relationships and that MAXENT's logistic output was frequently (54% of articles) and incorrectly interpreted as occurrence probability. We conclude with a series of recommendations foremost that researchers analyse data in a presence–absence framework whenever possible, because fewer assumptions are required and inferences can be made about clearly defined parameters such as occurrence probability.
Cascading impacts of prey loss: The global pandemic caused by the amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has decimated frog populations around the world. This decline has been called out as a potential catastrophe for amphibian species. What has been less explored are the impacts of amphibian declines on other members of their ecological communities. Using survey data collected over 13 years, Zipkin et al. looked at diversity and body condition of a tropical snake community after amphibians were decimated by chytridiomycosis. They found that the snake community was less diverse and most species were in decline, except for a few “winning” species. Science , this issue p. 814
Occupancy modelling is a common approach to assess species distribution patterns, while explicitly accounting for false absences in detection–nondetection data. Numerous extensions of the basic single‐species occupancy model exist to model multiple species, spatial autocorrelation and to integrate multiple data types. However, development of specialized and computationally efficient software to incorporate such extensions, especially for large datasets, is scarce or absent. We introduce the spOccupancy R package designed to fit single‐species and multi‐species spatially explicit occupancy models. We fit all models within a Bayesian framework using Pólya‐Gamma data augmentation, which results in fast and efficient inference. spOccupancy provides functionality for data integration of multiple single‐species detection–nondetection datasets via a joint likelihood framework. The package leverages Nearest Neighbour Gaussian Processes to account for spatial autocorrelation, which enables spatially explicit occupancy modelling for potentially massive datasets (e.g. 1,000s–100,000s of sites). spOccupancy provides user‐friendly functions for data simulation, model fitting, model validation (by posterior predictive checks), model comparison (using information criteria and k‐fold cross‐validation) and out‐of‐sample prediction. We illustrate the package's functionality via a vignette, simulated data analysis and two bird case studies. The spOccupancy package provides a user‐friendly platform to fit a variety of single and multi‐species occupancy models, making it straightforward to address detection biases and spatial autocorrelation in species distribution models even for large datasets.