We have collected transit times for the TRAPPIST-1 system with the Spitzer Space Telescope over four years. We add to these ground-based, HST, and K2 transit-time measurements, and revisit an N-body dynamical analysis of the seven-planet system using our complete set of times from which we refine the mass ratios of the planets to the star. We next carry out a photodynamical analysis of the Spitzer light curves to derive the density of the host star and the planet densities. We find that all seven planets’ densities may be described with a single rocky mass–radius relation which is depleted in iron relative to Earth, with Fe 21 wt% versus 32 wt% for Earth, and otherwise Earth-like in composition. Alternatively, the planets may have an Earth-like composition but enhanced in light elements, such as a surface water layer or a core-free structure with oxidized iron in the mantle. We measure planet masses to a precision of 3%–5%, equivalent to a radial-velocity (RV) precision of 2.5 cm s⁻¹, or two orders of magnitude more precise than current RV capabilities. We find the eccentricities of the planets are very small, the orbits are extremely coplanar, and the system is stable on 10 Myr timescales. We find evidence of infrequent timing outliers, which we cannot explain with an eighth planet; we instead account for the outliers using a robust likelihood function. We forecast JWST timing observations and speculate on possible implications of the planet densities for the formation, migration, and evolution of the planet system.

Seven rocky planets orbit the nearby dwarf star TRAPPIST-1, providing a unique opportunity to search for atmospheres on small planets outside the Solar System¹. Thanks to the recent launch of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), possible atmospheric constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) are now detectable^2,3. Recent JWST observations of the innermost planet TRAPPIST-1 b showed that it is most probably a bare rock without any CO₂ in its atmosphere⁴. Here we report the detection of thermal emission from the dayside of TRAPPIST-1 c with the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on JWST at 15 µm. We measure a planet-to-star flux ratio of f_p/f_⁎ = 421 ± 94 parts per million (ppm), which corresponds to an inferred dayside brightness temperature of 380 ± 31 K. This high dayside temperature disfavours a thick, CO₂-rich atmosphere on the planet. The data rule out cloud-free O₂/CO₂ mixtures with surface pressures ranging from 10 bar (with 10 ppm CO₂) to 0.1 bar (pure CO₂). A Venus-analogue atmosphere with sulfuric acid clouds is also disfavoured at 2.6σ confidence. Thinner atmospheres or bare-rock surfaces are consistent with our measured planet-to-star flux ratio. The absence of a thick, CO₂-rich atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1 c suggests a relatively volatile-poor formation history, with less than $${9.5}_{-2.3}^{+7.5}$$9.5 − 2.3 + 7.5 Earth oceans of water. If all planets in the system formed in the same way, this would indicate a limited reservoir of volatiles for the potentially habitable planets in the system.

Context. One of the most promising avenues for the detailed study of temperate Earth-sized exoplanets is the detection of such planets in transit in front of stars that are small and near enough to make it possible to carry out a thorough atmospheric characterisation with next-generation telescopes, such as the James Webb Space telescope (JWST) or Extremely Large Telescope (ELT). In this context, the TRAPPIST-1 planets form a unique benchmark system that has garnered the interest of a large scientific community. Aims. The SPECULOOS survey is an exoplanet transit survey targeting a volume-limited (40 pc) sample of ultracool dwarf stars (of spectral type M7 and later) that is based on a network of robotic 1 m telescopes especially designed for this survey. The strategy for brighter and earlier targets leverages on the synergy with the ongoing TESS space-based exoplanet transit survey. Methods. We define the SPECULOOS target list as the sum of three non-overlapping sub-programmes incorporating the latest type objects (T_eff ≲ 3000 K). Programme 1 features 365 dwarfs that are small and near enough to make it possible to detail atmospheric characterisation of an ‘Earth-like’ planet with the upcoming JWST. Programme 2 features 171 dwarfs of M5-type and later for which a significant detection of a planet similar to TRAPPIST-1b should be within reach of TESS. Programme 3 features 1121 dwarfs that are later than M6-type. These programmes form the basis of our statistical census of short-period planets around ultracool dwarf stars. Results. Our compound target list includes 1657 photometrically classified late-type dwarfs, with 260 of these targets classified, for the first time, as possible nearby ultracool dwarf stars. Our general observational strategy was to monitor each target between 100 and 200 h with our telescope network, making efficient use of the synergy with TESS for our Programme 2 targets and a proportion of targets in our Programme 1. Conclusions. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, we expect to detect up to a few dozen temperate, rocky planets. We also expect a number of them to prove amenable for atmospheric characterisation with JWST and other future giant telescopes, which will substantially improve our understanding of the planetary population of the latest-type stars.