Within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF is producing the ERA5 reanalysis which, once completed, will embody a detailed record of the global atmosphere, land surface and ocean waves from 1950 onwards. This new reanalysis replaces the ERA‐Interim reanalysis (spanning 1979 onwards) which was started in 2006. ERA5 is based on the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Cy41r2 which was operational in 2016. ERA5 thus benefits from a decade of developments in model physics, core dynamics and data assimilation. In addition to a significantly enhanced horizontal resolution of 31 km, compared to 80 km for ERA‐Interim, ERA5 has hourly output throughout, and an uncertainty estimate from an ensemble (3‐hourly at half the horizontal resolution). This paper describes the general set‐up of ERA5, as well as a basic evaluation of characteristics and performance, with a focus on the dataset from 1979 onwards which is currently publicly available. Re‐forecasts from ERA5 analyses show a gain of up to one day in skill with respect to ERA‐Interim. Comparison with radiosonde and PILOT data prior to assimilation shows an improved fit for temperature, wind and humidity in the troposphere, but not the stratosphere. A comparison with independent buoy data shows a much improved fit for ocean wave height. The uncertainty estimate reflects the evolution of the observing systems used in ERA5. The enhanced temporal and spatial resolution allows for a detailed evolution of weather systems. For precipitation, global‐mean correlation with monthly‐mean GPCP data is increased from 67% to 77%. In general, low‐frequency variability is found to be well represented and from 10 hPa downwards general patterns of anomalies in temperature match those from the ERA‐Interim, MERRA‐2 and JRA‐55 reanalyses.

The global analysis and forecast impact of observed humidity has been assessed by means of observing system experiments with the ECMWF 4D‐Var data assimilation system. It is found that humidity data have a significant impact extending into the medium range (5–6 day forecasts), with a marked impact also on the wind and temperature fields. This contradicts some previous studies that have shown insignificant impact of humidity observations in general. The current, greater benefit of the humidity analysis may be due to improved model and data assimilation methods, and vastly increased availability of atmospheric moisture observations. The results show that each tested data type provides benefit to the analysis and forecast performance, which indicates that the humidity analysis is effective in extracting information from a wide variety of humidity observations. Data from the microwave sounding instruments (SSMI and AMSU‐B) dominate the humidity analysis over the sea, whereas radiosondes, surface stations (SYNOP) and AMSU‐B dominate over land. The infrared sounders (GOES, HIRS and AIRS) dominate in the upper troposphere, at 200–300 hPa.The lack of absolutely calibrated humidity data makes dealing with biases in observations and model one of the main issues for determining the global moisture distribution and a balanced hydrological cycle. In these experiments, SSMI adds water in the subtropical subsidence areas due to a bias with respect to the model. In several locations over land, radiosondes and SYNOP have opposite bias impacts in the boundary layer, resulting in local influence on precipitation when either dataset is withheld. The SYNOP data are biased wet and the radiosondes are biased dry with respect to the model. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

The excellent forecasts made by ECMWF predicting the devastating landfall of Hurricane Sandy attracted a great deal of publicity and praise in the immediate aftermath of the event. The almost unprecedented and sudden “left hook” of the storm toward the coast of New Jersey was attributed to interactions with the large-scale atmospheric flow. This led to speculation that satellite observations may play an important role in the successful forecasting of this event. To investigate the role of satellite data a number of experiments have been performed at ECMWF where different satellite observations are deliberately withheld and forecasts of the hurricane rerun. Without observations from geostationary satellites the correct landfall of the storm is still reasonably well predicted albeit with a slight timing shift compared to the control forecast. On the other hand, without polar-orbiting satellites (which represent 90% of the volume of currently ingested observations) the ECMWF system would have given no useful guidance 4–5 days ahead that the storm would make landfall on the New Jersey coast. Instead the hurricane is predicted to stay well offshore in the Atlantic and hit the Maine coast 24 h later. If background errors estimated from the ECMWF Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) are allowed to evolve and adapt to the depleted observing system, then some of the performance loss suffered by withholding polar satellite data can be recovered. The use of the appropriate EDA errors results in a more enhanced use of geostationary satellite observations, which partly compensates for the loss of polar satellite data.

This paper presents the results from the Observing System Experiments (OSEs) with the current ECMWF data assimilation and modeling system for quantifying the impact on both analysis and forecast quality of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) observations sensitive to moisture and clouds as well as precipitation. SSM/I radiances have been assimilated operationally in clear-sky areas for 8 yr and in cloud- and rain-affected areas since June 2005. This paper examines experiments set up such that clear-sky and rain-affected observations were either added to a baseline with a restricted observing system configuration or withdrawn from the full system. The experiment duration was 10 weeks of which the first 14 days were excluded from the evaluation to allow the system to lose the memory of the initial conditions at day −1.It is shown that both clear-sky and rain-affected observations account for the bulk correction of moisture in the ECMWF analysis. SSM/I data adds 1 day of forecast skill over the first 48 h when evaluated in addition to a baseline-observing system. In the tropics, the rain-affected data contributes more skill to the moisture forecast than the clear-sky data at 700 hPa and above. In the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, the effect is generally weaker and slightly in favor of clear-sky observations. A similar performance can be seen with respect to the wind vector forecast skill, which reflects the connection between the analysis of moisture and dynamics.

Surface skin temperature (T_skin) derived from infrared remote sensors mounted on board satellites provides a continuous observation of Earth’s surface and allows the monitoring of global temperature change relevant to climate trends. In this study, we present a fast retrieval method for retrieving T_skin based on an artificial neural network (ANN) from a set of spectral channels selected from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) using the information theory/entropy reduction technique. Our IASI T_skin product (i.e., T_ANN) is evaluated against T_skin from EUMETSAT Level 2 product, ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5), SEVIRI observations, and ground in situ measurements. Good correlations between IASI T_ANN and the T_skin from other datasets are shown by their statistic data, such as a mean bias and standard deviation (i.e., [bias, STDE]) of [0.55, 1.86 °C], [0.19, 2.10 °C], [−1.5, 3.56 °C], from EUMETSAT IASI L-2 product, ERA5, and SEVIRI. When compared to ground station data, we found that all datasets did not achieve the needed accuracy at several months of the year, and better results were achieved at nighttime. Therefore, comparison with ground-based measurements should be done with care to achieve the ±2 °C accuracy needed, by choosing, for example, a validation site near the station location. On average, this accuracy is achieved, in particular at night, leading to the ability to construct a robust T_skin dataset suitable for T_skin long-term spatio-temporal variability and trend analysis.

In this third and final paper of a series, we assess the performance of the three‐dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, in the light of the results from the extensive pre‐operational programme of numerical experimentation. Its performance is compared with that of the previous operational scheme at the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts, which was based on Optimal Interpolation. The main features of the new scheme are illustrated, in particular the effects of non‐separable structure functions and the improved data usage. TIROS‐N Operational Vertical Sounder cloud‐cleared radiances, for example, are used directly without a separate retrieval step. Scatterometer data are assimilated in the form of ambiguous winds with the ambiguity removal taking place within the analysis itself. Problems encountered during the tests are discussed and the solutions implemented are explained. The overall impact on forecast accuracy in the troposphere of the northern hemisphere extratropics is neutral for geopotential and positive for wind and temperature. The impact is neutral in the tropics, and significantly positive in the southern hemisphere. Analyses and forecasts for the stratosphere have improved in all regions. Other positive results include a clear improvement in analyses of near‐surface winds over oceans, particularly in the vicinity of tropical storms. This is predominantly because of the assimilation of scatterometer wind‐data.