The tsunami observations produced by the 2018 magnitude 7.5 Palu strike‐slip earthquake challenged the traditional basis underlying tsunami hazard assessments and early warning systems. We analyzed an extraordinary collection of 38 amateur and closed circuit television videos to show that the Palu tsunamis devastated widely separated coastal areas around Palu Bay within a few minutes after the mainshock and included wave periods shorter than 100 s missed by the local tide station. Although rupture models based on teleseismic and geodetic data predict up to 5‐m tsunami runups, they cannot explain the higher surveyed runups nor the tsunami waveforms reconstructed from video footage, suggesting either these underestimate actual seafloor deformation and/or that non‐tectonic sources were involved. Post‐tsunami coastline surveys combined with video evidence and modeled tsunami travel times suggest that submarine landslides contributed to tsunami generation. The video‐based observations have broad implications for tsunami hazard assessments, early warning systems, and risk‐reduction planning.
2 May 2017 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
The 2018 Palu tsunami contributed significantly to the devastation caused by the associated 7.5 earthquake. This began a debate about how the moderate size earthquake triggered such a large tsunami within Palu Bay, with runups of more than 10 m. The possibility of a large component of vertical coseismic deformation and submarine landslides have been considered as potential explanations. However, scarce instrumental data have made it difficult to resolve the potential contributions from either type of source. We use tsunami waveforms derived from social media videos in Palu Bay to model the possible sources of the tsunami. We invert InSAR data with different fault geometries and use the resulting seafloor displacements to simulate tsunamis. The coseismic sources alone cannot match both the video‐derived time histories and surveyed runups. Then we conduct a tsunami source inversion using the video‐derived time histories and a tide gauge record as inputs. We specify hypothetical landslide locations and solve for initial tsunami elevation. Our results, validated with surveyed runups, show that a limited number of landslides in southern Palu Bay are sufficient to explain the tsunami data. The Palu tsunami highlights the difficulty in accurately capturing with tide gauges the amplitude and timing of short period waves that can have large impacts at the coast. The proximity of landslides to locations of high fault slip also suggests that tsunami hazard assessment in strike‐slip environments should include triggered landslides, especially for locations where the coastline morphology is strongly linked to fault geometry.
7 November 2017 in Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
New documentary findings and available paleoseismological evidence provide both new insights into the historical seismic sequence that ended with the giant 1960 south‐central Chile earthquake and relevant information about the region’s seismogenic zone. According to the few available written records, this region was previously struck by earthquakes of varying size in 1575, 1737, and 1837. We expanded the existing compilations of the effects of the two latter using unpublished first‐hand accounts found in archives in Chile, Peru, Spain, and New England. We further investigated their sources by comparing the newly unearthed historical data and available paleoseismological evidence with the effects predicted by hypothetical dislocations. The results reveal significant differences in the along‐strike and depth distribution of the ruptures in 1737, 1837, and 1960. While the 1737 rupture likely occurred in the northern half of the 1960 region, on a narrow and deep portion of the megathrust, the 1837 rupture occurred mainly in the southern half and slipped over a wide range of depth. Such a wide rupture in 1837 disagrees with the narrow and shallow seismogenic zone currently inferred along this region. If in fact there is now a narrow zone where 200 years ago there was a wider one, it means that the seismogenic zone changes with time, perhaps between seismic cycles. Such change probably explains the evident variability in both size and location of the great earthquakes that have struck this region over the last centuries, as evidenced by written history, and through millennia, as inferred from paleoseismology.