The elm zigzag sawfly, Aproceros leucopoda (Hymenoptera), native to eastern Asia, is among the most concerning potential pests for elm trees ( Ulmus spp.); elms form an important component in many North Temperate forests. This sawfly species invaded Europe in 2003 and spread rapidly across much of that continent. In 2020, it was recorded in North America, and it has since become established in several parts of the eastern United States and Canada. Sawfly infestations can cause severe elm tree defoliation, branch die-back that weakens tree health, and potentially tree mortality. Sawfly invasions have the potential to further exacerbate elm decline, especially in conjunction with other pressures, including Dutch elm disease ( Ophiostoma ulmi ). We used rigorous approaches from distributional ecology to explore climatic suitability for A. leocopoda across North America, considering various sources of uncertainty in the data. We found that, without control, the elm zigzag sawfly could establish populations across eastern Canada, much of the central-eastern and northeastern United States, as well as in the Pacific Northwest. More southern areas of North America were not climatically suitable for this species. Predicted suitable areas for the sawfly overlap broadly with elm distributions, highlighting the need to control this invasion to mitigate potential economic and environmental impacts.

The queen conch ( Aliger gigas ) is a key native species of the Caribbean Sea and a primary source of income for thousands of fishers. Historically, it has been a highly valuable resource for the fishing sectors of countries such as the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Honduras, and Nicaragua. However, due to its high economic value, the species has been extensively overfished across the region. Overfishing, combined with limited larval dispersal, low recruitment, and poor population connectivity, has led to a drastic decline in population numbers of the species, resulting in its current classification as Threatened. Despite this status, likely impacts of climate change on its populations remain poorly understood, posing significant challenges to conservation efforts. To address this gap, we integrated occurrence records, climate data, and satellite-derived marine habitat data to develop ecological niche models estimating the current and future distribution of the queen conch under different climate change scenarios. We found substantial losses of suitable areas for queen conch along the northern Atlantic coast of South America and Central America, part of the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles. The entire Caribbean region is projected to lose suitability entirely within 20-30 years under the moderate and most extreme climate scenarios. Conversely, our models estimate some suitable areas to persist or expand along the southeastern coast of the United States at least until sometime between 2040 and 2060. Overall, our results suggest a northward shift in the range of this species, with the magnitude of this shift closely tied to the severity of climate change impacts. This work aims to build upon and enhance existing knowledge about survival of queen conch populations in the Caribbean over time. Anticipating future habitat availability will be key to protecting this economically and ecologically important species.

The paper titled “Measuring the evolution of n-dimensional environmental niches” recently published by Sharma et al. (2024) presents a methodology that claims to measure evolution of ecological niches. Here, we argue that flaws in the conceptual framework behind this methodology, ignoring the distinction between fundamental and realized niches of species, leads to mis-estimations of amounts of evolutionary change in environmental tolerances of lineages. After a conceptual review, using one of the Sharma et al. study cases, we show the importance of considering different sources of uncertainty in reconstructing ecological niches, including consideration of historically accessible areas (M) for species and sampling biases in occurrence data, which also impact niche estimations. The Sharma et al. focus on the realized niche, rather than observable parts of the fundamental niche, leads to mis-interpretation of non-evolved consequences of the environmental variation manifested across M as niche evolution. Reconstructing any niche other than the fundamental niche results in overestimation of niche evolution.

The queen conch (Aliger gigas) is a key native species of the Caribbean Sea and a primary source of income for thousands of fishers. Historically, it has been a highly valuable resource for the fishing sectors of countries such as the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Honduras, and Nicaragua. However, the species has been extensively overfished across the region due to its high economic value and inherent susceptibility to harvest. Overfishing, combined with limited larval dispersal, low recruitment, and poor population connectivity, has led to a drastic decline in population numbers of the species, resulting in its current classification as Threatened. Despite this status, likely impacts of climate change on its populations remain poorly understood, posing significant challenges to conservation efforts. To address this gap, we integrated adult occurrence records with both benthic- and surface-level, data on ocean temperature, salinity and pH to develop ecological niche models evaluating adult-stage abiotic suitability in the Western Atlantic and potential distributional changes under three climate change scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (optimistic, moderate, and extreme). Suitability estimates were later analyzed in light of seagrass habitats and the distribution of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in the region. Our analyses suggested a high spatial stability in abiotically suitable areas at the benthic level across all time horizons under the optimistic climate change scenario. Conversely, benthic-based models under the moderate and extreme scenarios are less consistent between modeling frameworks and their estimations diverge substantially, impeding accurate interpretations. Surface-derived models estimated substantial losses of abiotically suitable areas for queen conch (i.e., areas projected to transition to abiotic conditions that fall outside of the suitable conditions defined by the recorded occurrences of the species), projecting abrupt declines from 2020–2040 across all climate change scenarios. This work aims to enhance existing knowledge about the abiotic suitability of several areas in the Western Atlantic for queen conch and provide relevant insights about the potential changes in the geographic distribution of the species over the next decades. Ultimately, anticipating future habitat availability will be key for guiding the conservation and management of this economically and ecologically critical species.

Several recent papers have explored methodologies for measuring evolution of ecological niches in the context of phylogenetic hypotheses. Here, we argue that flaws in the conceptual framework behind these approaches, ignoring the distinction between fundamental and realized niches of species, lead to mis-estimations of amounts of evolutionary change in environmental tolerances of lineages. After a conceptual review, using a case study drawn from the publication presenting the most recent of these approaches, we show the importance of considering different sources of uncertainty in reconstructing ecological niches, including consideration of historically accessible areas (M) for species and sampling biases in occurrence data, which also impact niche estimations. Any focus on the realized niche, either implicitly or explicitly, rather than observable parts of the fundamental niche, leads to mis-interpretation of non-evolved consequences of the environmental variation manifested across M as niche evolution. Reconstructing any niche other than the fundamental niche results in overestimation of niche evolution.