Members in ensemble forecasts differ due to the representations of initial uncertainties and model uncertainties. The inclusion of stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainties has improved the probabilistic skill of the ECMWF ensemble by increasing reliability and reducing the error of the ensemble mean. Recent progress, challenges and future directions regarding stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF are described in this article. The coming years are likely to see a further increase in the use of ensemble methods in forecasts and assimilation. This will put increasing demands on the methods used to perturb the forecast model. An area that is receiving greater attention than 5–10 years ago is the physical consistency of the perturbations. Other areas where future efforts will be directed are the expansion of uncertainty representations to the dynamical core and other components of the Earth system, as well as the overall computational efficiency of representing model uncertainty.

Medium-range weather prediction has become more skillful over recent decades, but forecast centers still suffer from occasional very poor forecasts, which are often referred to as “dropouts” or “busts.” This study focuses on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) day-6 forecasts for Europe. Although busts are defined by gross scores, bust composites reveal a coherent “Rex type” blocking situation, with a high over northern Europe and a low over the Mediterranean. Initial conditions for these busts also reveal a coherent flow, but this is located over North America and involves a trough over the Rockies, with high convective available potential energy (CAPE) to its east. This flow type occurs in spring and is often associated with a Rossby wave train that has crossed the Pacific. A composite on this initial flow type displays enhanced day-6 random forecast errors and some-what enhanced ensemble forecast spread, indicating reduced inherent predictability. Mesoscale convective systems, as... Medium-range weather prediction has become more skillful over recent decades, but forecast centers still suffer from occasional very poor forecasts, which are often referred to as “dropouts” or “busts.” This study focuses on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) day-6 forecasts for Europe. Although busts are defined by gross scores, bust composites reveal a coherent “Rex type” blocking situation, with a high over northern Europe and a low over the Mediterranean. Initial conditions for these busts also reveal a coherent flow, but this is located over North America and involves a trough over the Rockies, with high convective available potential energy (CAPE) to its east. This flow type occurs in spring and is often associated with a Rossby wave train that has crossed the Pacific. A composite on this initial flow type displays enhanced day-6 random forecast errors and some-what enhanced ensemble forecast spread, indicating reduced inherent predictability. Mesoscale convective systems, as...

In this paper, we review the use of satellite-based remote sensing in combination with in situ data to inform Earth surface modelling. This involves verification and optimization methods that can handle both random and systematic errors and result in effective model improvement for both surface monitoring and prediction applications. The reasons for diverse remote sensing data and products include (i) their complementary areal and temporal coverage, (ii) their diverse and covariant information content, and (iii) their ability to complement in situ observations, which are often sparse and only locally representative. To improve our understanding of the complex behavior of the Earth system at the surface and sub-surface, we need large volumes of data from high-resolution modelling and remote sensing, since the Earth surface exhibits a high degree of heterogeneity and discontinuities in space and time. The spatial and temporal variability of the biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and anthroposphere calls for an increased use of Earth observation (EO) data attaining volumes previously considered prohibitive. We review data availability and discuss recent examples where satellite remote sensing is used to infer observable surface quantities directly or indirectly, with particular emphasis on key parameters necessary for weather and climate prediction. Coordinated high-resolution remote-sensing and modelling/assimilation capabilities for the Earth surface are required to support an international application-focused effort.

In an attempt to advance the understanding of the Earth's weather and climate by representing deep convection explicitly, we present a global, four‐month simulation (November 2018 to February 2019) with ECMWF's hydrostatic Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at an average grid spacing of 1.4 km. The impact of explicitly simulating deep convection on the atmospheric circulation and its variability is assessed by comparing the 1.4 km simulation to the equivalent well‐tested and calibrated global simulations at 9 km grid spacing with and without parametrized deep convection. The explicit simulation of deep convection at 1.4 km results in a realistic large‐scale circulation, better representation of convective storm activity, and stronger convective gravity wave activity when compared to the 9 km simulation with parametrized deep convection. Comparison of the 1.4 km simulation to the 9 km simulation without parametrized deep convection shows that switching off deep convection parametrization at a too coarse resolution (i.e., 9 km) generates too strong convective gravity waves. Based on the limited statistics available, improvements to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation or tropical precipitation are not observed at 1.4 km, suggesting that other Earth system model components and/or their interaction are important for an accurate representation of these processes and may well need adjusting at deep convection resolving resolutions. Overall, the good agreement of the 1.4 km simulation with the 9 km simulation with parametrized deep convection is remarkable, despite one of the most fundamental parametrizations being turned off at 1.4 km resolution and despite no adjustments being made to the remaining parametrizations.

The land-surface developments of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are based on the Carbon-Hydrology Tiled Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (CHTESSEL) and form an integral part of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), supporting a wide range of global weather, climate and environmental applications. In order to structure, coordinate and focus future developments and benefit from international collaboration in new areas, a flexible system named ECLand, which would facilitate modular extensions to support numerical weather prediction (NWP) and society-relevant operational services, for example, Copernicus, is presented. This paper introduces recent examples of novel ECLand developments on (i) vegetation; (ii) snow; (iii) soil; (iv) open water/lake; (v) river/inundation; and (vi) urban areas. The developments are evaluated separately with long-range, atmosphere-forced surface offline simulations and coupled land-atmosphere-ocean experiments. This illustrates the benchmark criteria for assessing both process fidelity with regards to land surface fluxes and reservoirs of the water-energy-carbon exchange on the one hand, and on the other hand the requirements of ECMWF’s NWP, climate and atmospheric composition monitoring services using an Earth system assimilation and prediction framework.

The steady path of doubling the global horizontal resolution approximately every 8 years in numerical weather prediction (NWP) at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts may be substan- tially altered with emerging novel computing architectures. It coincides with the need to appropriately address and determine forecast uncertainty with increasing resolution, in particular, when convective-scale motions start to be resolved. Blunt increases in the model resolution will quickly become unaffordable and may not lead to improved NWP forecasts. Consequently, there is a need to accordingly adjust proven numerical techniques. An informed decision on the modelling strategy for harnessing exascale, massively parallel computing power thus also requires a deeper understanding of the sensitivity to uncertainty—for each part of the model—and ultimately a deeper understanding of multi-scale interactions in the atmosphere and their numerical realization in ultra-high-resolution NWP and climate simulations. This paper explores opportunities for substantial increases in the forecast efficiency by judicious adjustment of the formal accuracy or relative resolution in the spectral and physical space. One path is to reduce the formal accuracy by which the spectral transforms are computed. The other pathway explores the importance of the ratio used for the horizontal resolution in gridpoint space versus wavenumbers in spectral space. This is relevant for both high-resolution simulations as well as ensemble-based uncertainty estimation.