Summary: Deep‐water access is arguably the most effective, but under‐studied, mechanism that plants employ to survive during drought. Vulnerability to embolism and hydraulic safety margins can predict mortality risk at given levels of dehydration, but deep‐water access may delay plant dehydration. Here, we tested the role of deep‐water access in enabling survival within a diverse tropical forest community in Panama using a novel data‐model approach. We inversely estimated the effective rooting depth (ERD, as the average depth of water extraction), for 29 canopy species by linking diameter growth dynamics (1990–2015) to vapor pressure deficit, water potentials in the whole‐soil column, and leaf hydraulic vulnerability curves. We validated ERD estimates against existing isotopic data of potential water‐access depths. Across species, deeper ERD was associated with higher maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, greater vulnerability to xylem embolism, narrower safety margins, and lower mortality rates during extreme droughts over 35 years (1981–2015) among evergreen species. Species exposure to water stress declined with deeper ERD indicating that trees compensate for water stress‐related mortality risk through deep‐water access. The role of deep‐water access in mitigating mortality of hydraulically‐vulnerable trees has important implications for our predictive understanding of forest dynamics under current and future climates.

Drought‐induced tree mortality is expected to increase globally due to climate change, with profound implications for forest composition, function and global climate feedbacks. How drought is experienced by different species is thought to depend fundamentally on where they access water vertically below‐ground, but this remains untracked so far due to the difficulty of measuring water availability at depths at which plants access water (few to several tens of metres), the broad temporal scales at which droughts at those depths unfold (seasonal to decadal), and the difficulty in linking these patterns to forest‐wide species‐specific demographic responses. We address this problem through a new eco‐hydrological framework: we used a hydrological model to estimate below‐ground water availability by depth over a period of two decades that included a multi‐year drought. Given this water availability scenario and 20 year long‐records of species‐specific growth patterns, we inversely estimated the relative depths at which 12 common species in the forest accessed water via a model of water stress. Finally, we tested whether our estimates of species relative uptake depths predicted mortality in the multi‐year drought. The hydrological model revealed clear below‐ground niches as precipitation was decoupled from water availability by depth at multi‐annual scale. Species partitioned the hydrological niche by diverging in their uptake depths and so in the same forest stand, different species experienced very different drought patterns, resulting in clear differences in species‐specific growth. Finally, species relative water uptake depths predicted species mortality patterns after the multi‐year drought. Species that our method ranked as relying on deeper water were the ones that had suffered from greater mortality, as the zone from which they access water took longer to recharge after depletion. Synthesis. This research changes our understanding of how hydrological niches operate for trees, with a trade‐off between realized growth potential and survival under drought with decadal scale return time. The eco‐hydrological framework highlights the importance of species‐specific below‐ground strategies in predicting forest response to drought. Applying this framework more broadly may help us better understand species coexistence in diverse forest communities and improve mechanistic predictions of forests productivity and compositional change under future climate.

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs), a varied and extensive ecosystem type in the tropics, are characteristically adapted to seasonal water stress in zones of low rainfall. Land-use change, resource extraction, alien invasives, changes to the atmosphere, and changing fire and climatic regimes may have serious implications for the continued persistence of SDTFs. This paper assesses the extent to which SDTFs may be resilient in the face of these threats, considering their dynamics, community-level characteristics, and functional traits of constituent species. There is evidence that some SDTF biodiversity- and structure-related properties are resistant to low-to moderate-intensity disturbances and have the potential to recover after severe, even chronic, disturbances, at timescales in the order of decades. Although global SDTFs are, on average, not necessarily more resilient than moist tropical forests (MTFs), they may be more resilient to particular disturbances such as fires and drought. SDTFs are vulnerable to regime shifts and there is considerable uncertainty about their future under a changing climate and its interactions with other anthropogenic effects

Summary: Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO₂ levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES‐HYDRO) to simulate the stand‐level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086–2100: SSP2‐45, SSP5‐85) and two CO₂ levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1–11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO₂ provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO₂ mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO₂ or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo‐tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.