We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover.

Anthropogenic stress has been shown to reduce coral coverage in ecosystems all over the world. A phase shift towards an algae‐dominated system may accompany coral loss. In this case, the composition of the reef‐associated fish assemblage will change and human communities relying on reef fisheries for income and food security may be negatively impacted. We present a case study based on the Raja Ampat Archipelago in Eastern Indonesia. Using a dynamic food web model, we simulate the loss of coral reefs with accompanied transition towards an algae‐dominated state and quantify the likely change in fish populations and fisheries productivity. One set of simulations represents extreme scenarios, including 100% loss of coral. In this experiment, ecosystem changes are driven by coral loss itself and a degree of habitat dependency by reef fish is assumed. An alternative simulation is presented without assumed habitat dependency, where changes to the ecosystem are driven by historical observations of reef fish communities when coral is lost. The coral–algal phase shift results in reduced biodiversity and ecosystem maturity. Relative increases in the biomass of small‐bodied fish species mean higher productivity on reefs overall, but much reduced landings of traditionally targeted species.

Where the conventional model of discounting advocates aggressive harvest policies, intergenerational discounting could have been used to render the historic gross overfishing of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) economically unappealing compared with a more conservative long-term strategy. Under these discounting approaches, we compare the historic harvest trend from 1985 (and projected postcollapse earnings) with theoretical optimal harvest profiles determined by an ecosystem model. The optimal scenarios generate less initial harvest than the historic profile but maintain the resource and provide greater yields over the long term. At a discount rate equal to market interest, we demonstrate that it was more economic under conventional valuation to harvest the cod stock to collapse than it would have been to sustain the population. However, under intergenerational valuation, the sustainable optimal scenarios outperform the actual harvest profile. Application of conventional discounting by fishing consortiums may be partly to blame for depletion, yet management fell short of even that ideal.