HEALTH technologies should be reassessed when the technology changes or when criteria of candidature for the technology change.
1 Where radical changes are contemplated, scenario analysis—a technique in which available sources of data are used to predict future outcomes under a range of assumptions—can be a useful tool for exploring the consequences of change.
2,3 Bilateral cochlear implantation is a radical change in relation to the routine practice of providing implants unilaterally because it adds materially to the cost of provision. This article describes a health-economic scenario analysis designed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of bilateral cochlear implantation. Such analysis can inform future research strategy by identifying interventions whose cost-effectiveness is uncertain in relation to current criteria of acceptability. Resources available for research can then be allocated to measuring the cost-effectiveness of those interventions empirically.