Time series modeling is an effective approach for studying and analyzing the future performance of the power sector based on historical data. This study proposes a forecasting framework that applies a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors (SARIMAX) model to forecast the long-term performance of the electricity sector (electricity consumption, generation, peak load, and installed capacity). In this study, the model was used to forecast the aforementioned factors in Saudi Arabia for 30 years from 2021 to 2050. The historical data that were inputted into the model were collected from Saudi Arabia at quarterly intervals across a 40-year period (1980−2020). The SARIMAX technique applies a time series approach with seasonal and exogenous influencing factors, which helps reduce the error values and improve the overall model accuracy, even in the case of close input and output dataset lengths. The experimental findings indicated that the SARIMAX model has promising performance in terms of categorization and consideration, as it has significantly improved forecasting accuracy compared with the simpler autoregressive integrated moving average-based techniques. Furthermore, the model is capable of coping with different-sized sequential datasets. Finally, the model aims to help address the issue of a lack of future planning and analyses of power performance and intermittency, and it provides a reliable forecasting technique, which is a prerequisite for modern energy systems.

Global economic consequences of deploying bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

Climate change mitigation is one of the most critical challenges of this century. The unprecedented global effects of climate change are wide-ranging, including changing weather patterns that threaten food production, increased risk of catastrophic floods, and rising sea levels. Adapting to these impacts will be more difficult and costly in the future if radical changes are not made now. This review paper evaluates the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries’ potential for solar and wind energy resources to meet climate change mitigation requirements and assesses the ability of the GCC region to shift towards low-carbon technologies. The review demonstrates that the GCC region is characterized by abundant solar energy resources. The northwestern, southeastern, and western mountains of the region are highlighted as locations for solar energy application. Oman displays the highest onshore wind speed range, 3–6.3 m s⁻¹, and has the highest annual solar radiation of up to 2500 kWh/m². Kuwait has the second highest onshore wind speed range of 4.5–5.5 m s⁻¹. The western mountains and northwestern Saudi Arabia have a wind speed range of 3–6 m s⁻¹. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has the second highest annual solar radiation, 2285 kWh/m², while Saudi Arabia and the state of Kuwait have equal annual solar radiation at 2200 kWh/m². This review demonstrates that abundant offshore wind energy resources were observed along the coastal areas of the Arabian Gulf, as well as a potential opportunity for wind energy resource development in the Red Sea, which was characterized by high performance. In addition, the GCC countries will not be able to control and address the interrelated issues of climate change in the future if they do not eliminate fossil fuel consumption, adhere to the Paris Agreement, and implement plans to utilize their natural resources to meet these challenges.