In recent decades, the emergence of global value chains (GVCs) has changed international trade patterns. Today, the production of goods involves international production sharing, which allows countries to trace the value-added distribution to international trade. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has lowered the trade intensity between countries and can disrupt many sectors. This study uses a dynamic panel approach with the generalized method of moments estimator to investigate the pandemic’s impact on GVC participation. We also investigate whether gross domestic product (GDP) per capita may influence GVC participation, and use institutional quality as control variables. We used the Asian Development Bank Multi-Regional Input-Output (ADB MRIO) data for the 2010–2020 period. We employ backward and forward linkage approaches based on value-added exports to address the overvaluation problems in gross exports. The empirical results illustrate that the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decrease in GVC participation, on average. Furthermore, GDP per capita plays a significant role in GVC participation in backward and forward linkages with higher-quality institutions.

This study evaluates Indonesia’s external sustainability by analyzing exports, imports, and net unilateral transfer payments. The study utilizes Indonesia’s data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2019, applying both a long-run dynamic model and a short-run forward-looking model incorporating triple shocks. This research excludes the period from 2020 onwards due to the economic upheaval in Indonesia resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. This study concludes that Indonesia’s current account is unsustainable, as neither export nor import variables exhibit a long-term link, hence failing to meet intertemporal budget constraints. Furthermore, imports substantially influence long-term exports, which increase at a slower rate than imports. Economic variations and global oil price volatility also affect exports.

Changes in the demographic structure and its impact on the economy are becoming interesting issues in almost all countries in the world, including Indonesia. Until 2030, the working age group dominates almost 60 percent of the total population in Indonesia. This phenomenon is a valuable asset which should be used optimally. Moderate adjustment of interest rate policy is an effort applied by Bank Indonesia to maximize the access to credit and public savings. Therefore, this study aims to determine the effect of demographic aspects and the real sector on the effectiveness of monetary policy in the presence of interest rate shocks. This study employed time series data with a time period of 1987Q1 – 2020Q4 in Indonesia. The analysis was performed by using time varying parameter-vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) and fully modified-ordinary least square (FM-OLS). The results revealed that the population and the elderly population aspects had significant positive effects on the monetary policy, while the variable of productive age and the number of dependence aspects has significant negative effects. The relationship between the real sector and the monetary policy has a different relationship, such as a positive relationship between the savings and technology variables and the domestic credit variable which has a significant negative relationship with the monetary policy.