Currently, international trade has evolved into international production fragmentation captured in GVCs. Countries must enhance intermediate exports in comparative advantage sectors to increase their trade in value-added (TVA) in global production chains. However, traditional measurements of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) based on gross exports need to be updated due to overvaluation, double counting, and implicit distortions in international trade. This study uses a new comparative advantage measure, “new revealed symmetric comparative advantage” (NRSCA). Using a dynamic General Method of Moment (GMM) approach, we investigate the role of comparative advantage in driving TVA regarding backward and forward linkages and examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use data from the current Asian Development Bank multi-regional input–output database for 2010–2020. Our findings reveal that comparative advantage significantly impacted international TVA, along with the support of quality institutional services in each country. Implementing a new comparative advantage measure, NRSCA, provided accurate estimation results to overcome the overvaluation problem. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted value-added trade.

The COVID-19 pandemic is creating uncertainty that potentially causes a decline in global trade. It hampers the catching-up processes of developing countries because they are already connected through global value chains (GVCs). This study investigates the speed of convergence in GVC participation. Furthermore, we propose a forward and backward GVC participation approach to trace domestic and foreign value-added contributions and to overcome overvaluation in gross exports. We compare forward and backward linkages and determine countries’ convergence speeds. We scrutinize stochastic, σ, and β-convergence using the system generalized method of moments; additionally, we use this method to address potential endogeneity issues. Using a dynamic panel approach, we investigate global convergence countries in GVCs and possible foreign direct investment (FDI) factors that may influence convergence. In addition, we analyze the early effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the convergence rate using the recent Asian Development Bank multi-regional input-output database that covers the period 2010–2019. The results illustrate convergence in both forward and backward GVC participation; however, the convergence speed varies among group countries. A group comprising countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and other countries experiences faster convergence than advanced countries in forward GVC participation. In contrast, advanced countries experience faster convergence in backward GVC participation. Furthermore, the results reveal that FDI plays a significant role in GVC participation. Overall, The COVID-19 pandemic has decreased GVC participation on average.

In recent decades, the emergence of global value chains (GVCs) has changed international trade patterns. Today, the production of goods involves international production sharing, which allows countries to trace the value-added distribution to international trade. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has lowered the trade intensity between countries and can disrupt many sectors. This study uses a dynamic panel approach with the generalized method of moments estimator to investigate the pandemic’s impact on GVC participation. We also investigate whether gross domestic product (GDP) per capita may influence GVC participation, and use institutional quality as control variables. We used the Asian Development Bank Multi-Regional Input-Output (ADB MRIO) data for the 2010–2020 period. We employ backward and forward linkage approaches based on value-added exports to address the overvaluation problems in gross exports. The empirical results illustrate that the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decrease in GVC participation, on average. Furthermore, GDP per capita plays a significant role in GVC participation in backward and forward linkages with higher-quality institutions.

The recent multidimensional crisis has harmed the global economy because countries are currently integrated. In this study, we examine the spillover effect of the United States (US) interest rate on the output gap of ASEAN+3 countries using the dynamic spatial Durbin model from 2010 to 2020. After controlling for various institutional variables, this analysis further examines the effect of the exchange rate and the COVID-19 pandemic on the output gap. This model captures the spatial interactions and short- and long-term effects of interest rate monetary policies. The findings indicate a negative spillover effect of the US central bank interest rate on ASEAN+3 countries’ output gap. The result had significant direct and indirect short-term effects. Additionally, exchange rates negatively affect the output gap. The output gap decreased because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study is expected to be useful for monetary authorities in developing the best monetary policy for economic recovery.

To mitigate climate change problems, a low-carbon renewable energy policy is needed. Evaluating the impact of these problems on global value chains is essential to ensure an effective transition to sustainable economic development. This study analyzes the impact of emission reduction policies on Global Value Chains (GVC) using the Global Trade Analysis Project-Energy (GTAP-E) model by addressing three fundamental research questions. First, how does the implementation of B40 renewable energy policy combined with carbon tax affect Indonesia’s energy sector output and carbon emissions? Second, to what extent does this policy influence Indonesia’s participation in GVC, particularly in the crude palm oil (CPO) industry? Third, what are the implications for economic growth and social welfare? Our analysis focuses on the CPO sector, considering Indonesia’s position as the world’s largest producer and its potential for sustainable biofuel production through clean technological processes. The results of this study show that the policy effectively reduces carbon emissions through decreased fossil fuel production while promoting renewable energy adoption. It significantly increases Indonesia’s forward GVC participation in the CPO sector, enhancing value addition and international competitiveness. Furthermore, the policy generates positive impacts on economic growth and social welfare. This study emphasizes the importance of international policy coordination and the crucial role of technological innovation in achieving sustainable economic development for a low-carbon economy and strengthening Indonesia’s position in the global value chain.

Global economic developments are currently facing economic fluctuations and the climate change crisis, which demand a development approach that integrates growth with environmental sustainability. Although participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs) has become the backbone of the global economy, many countries, including Indonesia and most ASEAN countries, are still in upstream positions with high carbon intensity and low added value. This condition hinders sustainable economic growth and contributes to increased global emissions. This study aims to analyze how the position of the industrial sector in the GVCs can drive sustainable green economic growth. Using data from five ASEAN countries for the 2010–2023 period, this study employed the Generalized Method of Moments (GMMs) dynamic panel model to address the issues of endogeneity and individual heterogeneity. The results show that movements to upstream positions in GVCs, FDI, and political stability have a significant and positive impact on green economic growth. These findings highlight the need for tailored policies to encourage the development of green industries and improve global competitiveness.