Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

This update on the African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in the EU demonstrated that out of all tested wild boar found dead, the proportion of positive samples peaked in winter and summer. For domestic pigs only, a summer peak was evident. Despite the existence of several plausible factors that could result in the observed seasonality, there is no evidence to prove causality. Wild boar density was the most influential risk factor for the occurrence of ASF in wild boar. In the vast majority of introductions in domestic pig holdings, direct contact with infected domestic pigs or wild boar was excluded as the route of introduction. The implementation of emergency measures in the wild boar management zones following a focal ASF introduction was evaluated. As a sole control strategy, intensive hunting around the buffer area might not always be sufficient to eradicate ASF. However, the probability of eradication success is increased after adding quick and safe carcass removal. A wider buffer area leads to a higher success probability; however it implies a larger intensive hunting area and the need for more animals to be hunted. If carcass removal and intensive hunting are effectively implemented, fencing is more useful for delineating zones, rather than adding substantially to control efficacy. However, segments of fencing will be particularly useful in those areas where carcass removal or intensive hunting is difficult to implement. It was not possible to demonstrate an effect of natural barriers on ASF spread. Human‐mediated translocation may override any effect of natural barriers. Recommendations for ASF control in four different epidemiological scenarios are presented.

EFSA was asked to update the 2015 EFSA risk assessment on Xylella fastidiosa for the territory of the EU. In particular, EFSA was asked to focus on potential establishment, short‐ and long‐range spread, the length of the asymptomatic period, the impact of X. fastidiosa and an update on risk reduction options. EFSA was asked to take into account the different subspecies and Sequence Types of X. fastidiosa. This was attempted throughout the scientific opinion but several issues with data availability meant that this could only be partially achieved. Models for risk of establishment showed most of the EU territory may be potentially suitable for X. fastidiosa although southern EU is most at risk. Differences in estimated areas of potential establishment were evident among X. fastidiosa subspecies, particularly X. fastidiosa subsp. multiplex which demonstrated areas of potential establishment further north in the EU. The model of establishment could be used to develop targeted surveys by Member States. The asymptomatic period of X. fastidiosa varied significantly for different host and pathogen subspecies combinations, for example from a median of approximately 1 month in ornamental plants and up to 10 months in olive, for pauca. This variable and long asymptomatic period is a considerable limitation to successful detection and control, particularly where surveillance is based on visual inspection. Modelling suggested that local eradication (e.g. within orchards) is possible, providing sampling intensity is sufficient for early detection and effective control measures are implemented swiftly (e.g. within 30 days). Modelling of long‐range spread (e.g. regional scale) demonstrated the important role of long‐range dispersal and the need to better understand this. Reducing buffer zone width in both containment and eradication scenarios increased the area infected. Intensive surveillance for early detection, and consequent plant removal, of new outbreaks is crucial for both successful eradication and containment at the regional scale, in addition to effective vector control. The assessment of impacts indicated that almond and Citrus spp. were at lower impact on yield compared to olive. Although the lowest impact was estimated for grapevine, and the highest for olive, this was based on several assumptions including that the assessment considered only Philaenus spumarius as a vector. If other xylem‐feeding insects act as vectors the impact could be different. Since the Scientific Opinion published in 2015, there are still no risk reduction options that can remove the bacterium from the plant in open field conditions. Short‐ and long‐range spread modelling showed that an early detection and rapid application of phytosanitary measures, consisting among others of plant removal and vector control, are essential to prevent further spread of the pathogen to new areas. Further data collection will allow a reduction in uncertainty and facilitate more tailored and effective control given the intraspecific diversity of X. fastidiosa and wide host range.

Classical swine fever (CSF) is among the most detrimental diseases for the swine industry worldwide. Infected wild boar populations can play a crucial role in CSF epidemiology and controlling wild reservoirs is of utmost importance for preventing domestic outbreaks. Oral mass vaccination (OMV) has been implemented to control CSF in wild boars and limit the spill over to domestic pigs. This retrospective overview of vaccination experiences illustrates the potential for that option. The C-strain live vaccine was confirmed to be highly efficacious and palatable baits were developed for oral delivery in free ranging wild boars. The first field trials were performed in Germany in the 1990’s and allowed deploying oral baits at a large scale. The delivery process was further improved during the 2000’s among different European countries. Optimal deployment has to be early regarding disease emergence and correctly designed regarding the landscape structure and the natural food sources that can compete with oral baits. OMV deployment is also highly dependent on a local veterinary support working closely with hunters, wildlife and forestry agencies. Vaccination has been the most efficient strategy for CSF control in free ranging wild boar when vaccination is wide spread and lasting for a sufficient period of time. Alternative disease control strategies such as intensified hunting or creating physical boundaries such as fences have been, in contrast, seldom satisfactory and reliable. However, monitoring outbreaks has been challenging during and after vaccination deployment since OMV results in a low probability to detect virus-positive animals and the live-vaccine currently available does not allow serological differentiation of infected from vaccinated animals. The development of a new marker vaccine and companion test is thus a promising option for better monitoring outbreaks during OMV deployment as well as help to better determine when to stop vaccination efforts. After rabies in red fox, the use of OMV against CSF in European wild boar can be considered as a second example of successful disease control in wildlife. The thirty years of disease control experience included in this review may provide options for improving future disease management within wild populations.