We developed ecologically based climate‐fire projections for the western U.S. Using a finer ecological classification and fire‐relevant climate predictors, we created statistical models linking climate and wildfire area burned for ecosections, which are geographic delineations based on biophysical variables. The results indicate a gradient from purely fuel‐limited (antecedent positive water balance anomalies or negative energy balance anomalies) to purely flammability‐limited (negative water balance anomalies or positive energy balance anomalies) fire regimes across ecosections. Although there are other influences (such as human ignitions and management) on fire occurrence and area burned, seasonal climate significantly explains interannual fire area burned. Differences in the role of climate across ecosections are not random, and the relative dominance of climate predictors allows objective classification of ecosection climate‐fire relationships. Expected future trends in area burned range from massive increases, primarily in flammability limited systems near the middle of the water balance deficit distribution, to substantial decreases, in fuel‐limited non‐forested systems. We predict increasing area burned in most flammability‐limited systems but predict decreasing area burned in primarily fuel‐limited systems with a flammability‐limited (“hybrid”) component. Compared to 2030‐2059 (2040s), projected area burned for 2070‐2099 (2080s) increases much more in the flammability and flammability dominated hybrid systems than those with equal control, and continues to decrease in fuel‐limited hybrid systems. Exceedance probabilities for historical 95^th percentile fire years are larger in exclusively flammability‐limited ecosections than in those with fuel controls. Filtering the projected results using a fire‐rotation constraint minimizes over‐projection due to static vegetation assumptions, making projections more conservative.

In an increasingly interconnected world, human–environment interactions involving flows of people, organisms, goods, information, and energy are expanding in magnitude and extent, often over long distances. As a universal paradigm for examining these interactions, the telecoupling framework (published in 2013) has been broadly implemented across the world by researchers from diverse disciplines. We conducted a systematic review of the first five years of telecoupling research to evaluate the state of telecoupling science and identify strengths, areas to be improved, and promising avenues for future study. We identified 89 studies using any derivation of the term telecoupling. These works emphasize trade flows, information transfer, and species dispersal at international, national, and regional scales involving one or a few countries, with China, Brazil, and the United States being the most frequently studied countries. Our review showed a rising trend in publications and citations on telecoupling, with 63% of identified telecoupling studies using the framework’s specific language (e.g., “flows”, “agents”). This result suggests that future telecoupling studies could apply the standardized telecoupling language and terminology to better coordinate, synthesize, and operationalize interdisciplinary research. Compelling topics for future research include operationalization of the telecoupling framework, commonalities among telecouplings, telecoupling mechanisms and causality, and telecoupled systems governance. Overall, the first five years of telecoupling research have improved our understanding of human–environment interactions, laying a promising foundation for future social–ecological research in a telecoupled world.