In this article, we propose a distributed demand-side management (DSM) approach for smart grids taking into account uncertainty in wind power forecasting. The smart grid model comprehends traditional users as well as active users (prosumers). Through a rolling-horizon approach, prosumers participate in a DSM program, aiming at minimizing their cost in the presence of uncertain wind power generation by a game theory approach. We assume that each user selfishly formulates its grid optimization problem as a noncooperative game. The core challenge in this article is defining an approach to cope with the uncertainty in wind power availability. We tackle this issue from two different sides: by employing the expected value to define a deterministic counterpart for the problem and by adopting a stochastic approximated framework. In the latter case, we employ the sample average approximation (SAA) technique, whose results are based on a probability density function (PDF) for the wind speed forecasts. We improve the PDF by using historical wind speed data, and by employing a control index that takes into account the weather condition stability. Numerical simulations on a real data set show that the proposed stochastic strategy generates lower individual costs compared to the standard expected value approach.

Nowadays, due to the decreasing use of traditional generators in favor of renewable energy sources, power grids are facing a reduction of system inertia and primary frequency regulation capability. Such an issue is exacerbated by the continuously increasing number of electric vehicles (EVs), which results in enforcing novel approaches in the grid operations management. However, from being an issue, the increase of EVs may turn to be a solution to several power system challenges. In this context, a crucial role is played by the so-called vehicle-to-grid (V2G) mode of operation, which has the potential to provide ancillary services to the power grid, such as peak clipping, load shifting, and frequency regulation. More in detail, EVs have recently started to be effectively used for one of the most traditional frequency regulation approaches: the so-called frequency droop control (FDC). This is a primary frequency regulation, currently obtained by adjusting the active power of generators in the main grid. Because to the decommissioning of traditional power plants, EVs are thus recognized as particularly valuable solutions since they can respond to frequency deviation signals by charging or discharging their batteries. Against this background, we address frequency regulation of a power grid model including loads, traditional generators, and several EVs. The latter independently participate in the grid optimization process providing the grid with ancillary services, namely the FDC. We propose two novel control strategies for the optimal control of the batteries of EVs during the frequency regulation service. On the one hand, the control strategies ensure re-balancing the power and stabilizing the frequency of the main grid. On the other hand, the approaches are able to satisfy different types of needs of EVs during the charging process. Differently from the related literature, where the EVs perspective is generally oriented to achieve the optimal charge level, the proposed approaches aim at minimizing the degradation of battery devices. Finally, the proposed strategies are compared with other state-of-the-art V2G control approaches. The results of numerical experiments using a realistic power grid model show the effectiveness of the proposed strategies under the actual operating conditions.

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of the so-called heatwaves with a trend that is expected to worsen in the next years due to global warming. The growing intensity and duration of these extreme weather events are leading to a significant number of power system failures, especially in urban areas. This is drastically affecting the reliability and normal operation of power distribution grids around the world, with high financial costs and huge negative impacts on people's life. Typically, the response to these failure events is approached by post-event analysis, aimed at identifying the grid areas that require resources to increase the resilience of the system and prevent future outages. Nevertheless, understanding the nature of heatwaves and forecasting their impact on power distribution systems can be useful to anticipate them and accelerate a reaction, possibly avoiding negative impacts on power systems and customers. In this study, a structured method to predict distribution grid disruptions caused by heatwaves is defined. The proposed method relies on machine learning to analyze previous failure data and forecast power grid outages using operational and meteorological information. The method is evaluated using real failure data from a large power distribution network located in southern Italy.

Power distribution grids are commonly controlled through centralized approaches, such as the optimal power flow. However, the current pervasive deployment of distributed renewable energy sources and the increasing growth of active players, providing ancillary services to the grid, have made these centralized frameworks no longer appropriate. In this context, we propose a novel noncooperative control mechanism for optimally regulating the operation of power distribution networks equipped with traditional loads, distributed generation, and active users. The latter, also known as prosumers, contribute to the grid optimization process by leveraging their flexible demand, dispatchable generation capability, and/or energy storage potential. Active users participate in a noncooperative liberalized market designed to increase the penetration of renewable generation and improve the predictability of power injection from the high voltage grid. The novelty of our game-theoretical approach consists in incorporating economic factors as well as physical constraints and grid stability aspects. Lastly, by integrating the proposed framework into a rolling-horizon approach, we show its effectiveness and resiliency through numerical experiments.

This article proposes a stochastic nonlinear model predictive controller to support policymakers in determining robust optimal nonpharmaceutical strategies to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic waves. First, a time-varying SIRCQTHE epidemiological model is defined to get predictions on the pandemic dynamics. A stochastic model predictive control problem is then formulated to select the necessary control actions (i.e., restrictions on the mobility for different socioeconomic categories) to minimize the socioeconomic costs. In particular, considering the uncertainty characterizing this decision-making process, we ensure that the capacity of the healthcare system is not violated in accordance with a chance constraint approach. The effectiveness of the presented method in properly supporting the definition of diversified nonpharmaceutical strategies for tackling the COVID-19 spread is tested on the network of Italian regions using real data. The proposed approach can be easily extended to cope with other countries’ characteristics and different levels of the spatial scale. Note to Practitioners —This article is motivated by the emerging need for developing effective methods to support policymakers in mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed feedback control strategy—combining a multiregion epidemiological model with a nonlinear stochastic model predictive control approach—allows the robust identification of the most effective restrictive measures considering the corresponding effects on the healthcare and socioeconomic systems. The proposed framework is a general and flexible method that can be applied to various real scenarios, leveraging mobility data, available from the Google mobility service, to recognize patterns and predict future behaviors of individuals.