Rapid urban expansion has profound impacts on global biodiversity through habitat conversion, degradation, fragmentation, and species extinction. However, how future urban expansion will affect global biodiversity needs to be better understood. We contribute to filling this knowledge gap by combining spatially explicit projections of urban expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with datasets on habitat and terrestrial biodiversity (amphibians, mammals, and birds). Overall, future urban expansion will lead to 11–33 million hectares of natural habitat loss by 2100 under the SSP scenarios and will disproportionately cause large natural habitat fragmentation. The urban expansion within the current key biodiversity priority areas is projected to be higher (e.g., 37–44% higher in the WWF’s Global 200) than the global average. Moreover, the urban land conversion will reduce local within-site species richness by 34% and species abundance by 52% per 1 km grid cell, and 7–9 species may be lost per 10 km cell. Our study suggests an urgent need to develop a sustainable urban development pathway to balance urban expansion and biodiversity conservation.

Irrigated agriculture has important implications for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, there is a lack of systematic and quantitative analyses of its impacts on food–energy–water–CO₂ nexus. Here we studied impacts of irrigated agriculture on food–energy–water–CO₂ nexus across food sending systems (the North China Plain (NCP)), food receiving systems (the rest of China) and spillover systems (Hubei Province, affected by interactions between sending and receiving systems), using life cycle assessment, model scenarios, and the framework of metacoupling (socioeconomic-environmental interactions within and across borders). Results indicated that food supply from the NCP promoted food sustainability in the rest of China, but the NCP consumed over four times more water than its total annual renewable water, with large variations in food–energy–water–CO₂ nexus across counties. Although Hubei Province was seldom directly involved in the food trade, it experienced substantial losses in water and land due to the construction of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project which aims to alleviate water shortages in the NCP. This study suggests the need to understand impacts of agriculture on food–energy–water–CO₂ nexus in other parts of the world to achieve global sustainability.

Recent concurrent processes of vegetation greening and reduced resilience (the capacity to recover from disturbances) worldwide have brought many uncertainties into sustainable ecosystems in the future. However, little is known about the conditions and extent to which greening affects resilience changes. Here we assess both vegetation dynamics and resilience in China’s Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2020 using satellite-based vegetation data and an early warning indicator. Our results reveal an overall greening trend in vegetated areas, while resilience shifted from gains to losses at a breakpoint in 2010. Vegetation greening generally contributed to resilience gains, whereas increased temperature and precipitation variability contributed to the resilience loss observed in 2011–2020. These findings provide empirical evidence that vegetation greening does not necessarily correspond to an increase in resilience. We therefore recommend integrating resilience indicators into ecological restoration and conservation efforts to gain a more comprehensive understanding of vegetation states and support effective ecosystem stewardship.