The occurrence of extreme heat and its adverse effects will be exacerbated with the trend of global warming. An increasing number of researchers have been working on aggregating multiple heat-related indicators to create composite indices for heat vulnerability assessments and have visualized the vulnerability through geographic information systems to provide references for reducing the adverse effects of extreme heat more effectively. This review includes 15 studies concerning heat vulnerability assessment. We have studied the indicators utilized and the methods adopted in these studies for the construction of the heat vulnerability index (HVI) and then further reviewed some of the studies that validated the HVI. We concluded that the HVI is useful for targeting the intervention of heat risk, and that heat-related health outcomes could be used to validate and optimize the HVI. In the future, more studies should be conducted to provide references for the selection of heat-related indicators and the determination of weight values of these indicators in the development of the HVI. Studies concerning the application of the HVI are also needed.
Background: The evidence of increased mortality attributable to extreme temperatures is widely characterized in climate-health studies. However, few of these studies have examined the role of humidity on temperature-mortality association. We investigated the joint effect between temperature and humidity on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in Zhejiang Province, China. Methods: We collected data on daily meteorological and CVD mortality from 11 cities in Zhejiang Province during 2010–2013. We first applied time-series Poisson regression analysis within the framework of distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the city-specific effect of temperature and humidity on CVD mortality, after controlling for temporal trends and potential confounding variables. We then applied a multivariate meta-analytical model to pool the effect estimates in the 11 cities to generate an overall provincial estimate. The joint effects between them were calculated by the attributable fraction (AF). The analyses were further stratified by gender, age group, education level, and location of cities. Results: In total, 120,544 CVD deaths were recorded in this study. The mean values of temperature and humidity were 17.6 °C and 72.3%. The joint effect between low temperature and high humidity had the greatest impact on the CVD death burden over a lag of 0–21 days with a significant AF of 31.36% (95% eCI: 14.79–38.41%), while in a condition of low temperature and low humidity with a significant AF of 16.74% (95% eCI: 0.89, 24.44). The AFs were higher at low temperature and high humidity in different subgroups. When considering the levels of humidity, the AFs were significant at low temperature and high humidity for males, youth, those with a low level of education, and coastal area people. Conclusions: The combination of low temperature and high humidity had the greatest impact on the CVD death burden in Zhejiang Province. This evidence has important implications for developing CVD interventions.
To provide some useful information about the control of air pollution in China, we studied the spatial-temporal characteristics of air pollution in China from 2001–2014. First, we drew several line charts and histograms of the Air Pollution Index (API) and Air Quality Index (AQI) of 31 capital cities and municipalities to research the distribution across different times and cities; then, we researched the spatial clustering of API and AQI; finally, we examined the shift of the gravity center of API and AQI in different years and months. The API values had a decreasing trend: the high values had a clustering trend in some northern cities, and the low values had a clustering trend in some southern cities. The AQI values were relatively low, from 15:00–17:00 during the day. The gravity center of API had a trend of moving south from 2001–2003, then fluctuated in an unordered pattern and moved north in the winter. The AQI gravity center did not have a regular shift during different months. In conclusion, the government should take action to mitigate air pollution in some typical cities, as well as air pollution during the winter.
To describe the temporal trends of breast cancer mortality in East Asia and to better understand the causes of these trends, we analyzed the independent effects of chronological age, time period and birth cohort on breast cancer mortality trends using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. We chose three main countries in East Asia, namely China, South Korea, and Japan, which have reported death status to the WHO Mortality Database, and used the United States as a comparison population. Our study shows that in general, breast cancer mortality rates in females increased in all three East Asian countries throughout the study period. By APC analysis, we confirmed that there is, in fact, a difference in age-specific mortality rate patterns between the Eastern and the Western countries, which is presumably caused by the two-disease model. While the cause of the decrease from approximately the 1950s generation is still in question, we believe that increasing general awareness and improvements in the health-care system have made a significant contribution to it. Although the age and cohort effects are relatively strong, the period effect may be a more critical factor in the mortality trend, mainly reflecting the increase in exposures to carcinogens and behavioral risk factors.
The aim of this study is to explore the long-term trends of suicide mortality in China. We implemented the age-period-cohort (APC) framework, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Our results showed that the net drift of suicide mortality was −4.727% (95% CI: −4.821% to −4.634%) per year for men and −6.633% (95% CI: −6.751% to −6.515%) per year for women, and the local drift values were below 0 in all age groups (p < 0.01 for all) for both sexes during the period of 1994–2013. Longitudinal age curves indicated that, in the same birth cohort, suicide death risk increased rapidly to peak at the life stage of 20–24 years old and 15–24 years old for men and women, respectively, and then showed a decelerated decline, followed by a rise thereafter after 54 years old for men and a slight one after 69 years old for women. The estimated period and cohort RRs were found to show similar monotonic downward patterns (significantly with p < 0.01 for all) for both sexes, with more quickly decreasing for women than for men during the whole period. The decreasing trend of suicide was likely to be related to the economic rapid growth, improvements in health care, enhancement on the level of education, and increasing awareness of suicide among the public in China. In addition, fast urbanization and the effective control of pesticides and rodenticides might be the special reasons behind these trends we observed in this study.
Mortality in many parts of the world has a seasonal pattern, with a marked excess of deaths during winter. To date, however, there is very little published evidence on the nature of this wintertime excess in low- and middle-income countries. In this study, we aimed to quantify the extent of the death peak in winter and to assess effect modification on excess winter death (EWD) by individual characteristics and cause of deaths in China. We used a Cosinor model to examine seasonal patterns for specific causes of deaths and a case-only analysis of deaths in winter compared with other seasons to assess effect modification by individual characteristics. A total of 398,529 deaths were investigated between January 2010 and December 2013 in Zhejiang Province, China. Deaths peaked in winter, and overall mortality was around 30% higher in winter than in summer. Although diseases of the respiratory and circulatory systems were highly seasonal, surprisingly we observed that deaths from mental and behavioral disorders exhibited greater fluctuation. Males, the elderly and illiterate individuals suffered high EWD. EWDs were also particularly common in emergency rooms, at home, on the way to hospitals, and in nursing homes/family wards. This study highlighted the high EWD in some previously unreported groups, indicating new information to facilitate the targeting of necessary preventive measures to those at greatest risk in order to mitigate wintertime death burdens.