Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. It has the power to bring light to problems in several areas of knowledge, such as epidemiological studies, healthcare inference, and climate change analysis. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. An open gap in the literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. The existing applications consistently disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions, named after Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network ( ReGENN ). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with tens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones. The results outperformed both statistical and ensemble-learning approaches, showing an improvement of 64.87 percent over the competing algorithms on the SARS-CoV-2 dataset of the renowned John Hopkins University for 188 countries simultaneously. For further validation, we tested our architecture in two other public datasets of different domains, the PhysioNet Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2012 and Brazilian Weather datasets. We also analyzed the Evolution Weights arising from the hidden layers of ReGENN to describe how the variables of the dataset interact with each other; and, as a result of looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, we concluded that time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.
Human mobility has a significant impact on several layers of society, from infrastructural planning and economics to the spread of diseases and crime. Representing the system as a complex network, in which nodes are assigned to regions (e.g., a city) and links indicate the flow of people between two of them, physics-inspired models have been proposed to quantify the number of people migrating from one city to the other. Despite the advances made by these models, our ability to predict the number of commuters and reconstruct mobility networks remains limited. Here, we propose an alternative approach using machine learning and 22 urban indicators to predict the flow of people and reconstruct the intercity commuters network. Our results reveal that predictions based on machine learning algorithms and urban indicators can reconstruct the commuters network with 90.4% of accuracy and describe 77.6% of the variance observed in the flow of people between cities. We also identify essential features to recover the network structure and the urban indicators mostly related to commuting patterns. As previously reported, distance plays a significant role in commuting, but other indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment rate, are also driven-forces for people to commute. We believe that our results shed new lights on the modeling of migration and reinforce the role of urban indicators on commuting patterns. Also, because link-prediction and network reconstruction are still open challenges in network science, our results have implications in other areas, like economics, social sciences, and biology, where node attributes can give us information about the existence of links connecting entities in the network.
1 July 2016 in Computers and Electronics in Agriculture
Corrosion identification and repair is a vital task in aircraft maintenance to ensure continued structural integrity. Regarding fuselage lap joints, typically, visual inspections are followed by non-destructive methodologies, which are time-consuming. The visual inspection of large areas suffers not only from subjectivity but also from the variable probability of corrosion detection, which is aggravated by the multiple layers used in fuselage construction. In this paper, we propose a methodology for automatic image-based corrosion detection of aircraft structures using deep neural networks. For machine learning, we use a dataset that consists of D-Sight Aircraft Inspection System (DAIS) images from different lap joints of Boeing and Airbus aircrafts. We also employ transfer learning to overcome the shortage of aircraft corrosion images. With precision of over 93%, we demonstrate that our approach detects corrosion with a precision comparable to that of trained operators, aiding to reduce the uncertainties related to operator fatigue or inadequate training. Our results indicate that our methodology can support specialists and engineers in corrosion monitoring in the aerospace industry, potentially contributing to the automation of condition-based maintenance protocols.
An overview is provided of the challenges involved in building computer-aided diagnosis systems capable of precise medical diagnostics based on integration and interpretation of data from different sources and formats. The availability of massive amounts of data and computational methods associated with the Big Data paradigm has brought hope that such systems may soon be available in routine clinical practices, which is not the case today. We focus on visual and machine learning analysis of medical data acquired with varied nanotech-based techniques and on methods for Big Data infrastructure. Because diagnosis is essentially a classification task, we address the machine learning techniques with supervised and unsupervised classification, making a critical assessment of the progress already made in the medical field and the prospects for the near future. We also advocate that successful computer-aided diagnosis requires a merge of methods and concepts from nanotechnology and Big Data analysis.