The global sea-level rise (SLR) projections for the next few decades are the basis for developing flooding maps that depict the expected hazard scenarios. However, the spatially variable land subsidence has generally not been considered in the current projections. In this study, we use geodetic data from global navigation satellite system (GNSS), synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements (InSAR) and sea-level data from tidal stations to show the combined effects of land subsidence and SLR along the coast between Catania and Marzamemi, in south-eastern Sicily (southern Italy). This is one of the most active tectonic areas of the Mediterranean basin, which drives accelerated SLR, continuous coastal retreat and increasing effects of flooding and storms surges. We focus on six selected areas, which show valuable coastal infrastructures and natural reserves where the expected SLR in the next few years could be a potential cause of significant land flooding and morphological changes of the coastal strip. Through a multidisciplinary study, the multi-temporal flooding scenarios until 2100, have been estimated. Results are based on the spatially variable rates of vertical land movements (VLM), the topographic features of the area provided by airborne Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of SLR in the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. In addition, from the analysis of the time series of optical satellite images, a coastal retreat up to 70 m has been observed at the Ciane river mouth (Siracusa) in the time span 2001–2019. Our results show a diffuse land subsidence locally exceeding 10 ± 2.5 mm/year in some areas, due to compacting artificial landfill, salt marshes and Holocene soft deposits. Given ongoing land subsidence, a high end of RSLR in the RCP 8.5 at 0.52 ± 0.05 m and 1.52 ± 0.13 m is expected for 2050 AD and 2100 AD, respectively, with an exposed area of about 9.7 km² that will be vulnerable to inundation in the next 80 years.

Low-lying coastal zones are highly subject to coastal hazards as a result of sea-level rise enhanced by natural or anthropogenic land subsidence. A combined analysis using sea-level data and remote sensing techniques allows the estimation of the current rates of land subsidence and shoreline retreat, supporting the development of quantified relative sea-level projections and flood maps, which are appropriate for specific areas. This study focuses on the coastal plain of Tavoliere delle Puglie (Apulia, Southern Italy), facing the Adriatic Sea. In this area, land subsidence is mainly caused by long-term tectonic movements and sediment compaction driven by high anthropogenic pressure, such as groundwater exploitation and constructions of buildings. To assess the expected effects of relative sea-level rise for the next decades, we considered the following multidisciplinary source data: (i) sea-level-rise projections for different climatic scenarios, as reported in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (ii) coastal topography from airborne and terrestrial LiDAR data, (iii) Vertical Land Movement (VLM) from the analysis of InSAR and GNSS data, and (iv) shoreline changes obtained from the analysis of orthophotos, historic maps, and satellite images. To assess the expected evolution of the coastal belt, the topographic data were corrected for VLM values, assuming that the rates of land subsidence will remain constant up to 2150. The sea-level-rise projections and expected flooded areas were estimated for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, corresponding to low and high greenhouse-gas concentrations, respectively. From our analysis, we estimate that in 2050, 2100, and 2150, up to 50.5 km², 118.7 km² and 147.7 km² of the coast could be submerged, respectively, while beaches could retreat at rates of up to 5.8 m/yr. In this area, sea-level rise will be accelerated by natural and anthropogenic land subsidence at rates of up to −7.5 ± 1.7 mm/yr. Local infrastructure and residential areas are thus highly exposed to an increasing risk of severe inundation by storm surges and sea-level rise in the next decades.

For the first time, the synchronous correlation technique and amino acid racemization (AAR) analyses of Patella spp. and Thetystrombus latus shells are applied to an understudied sequence of raised palaeoshorelines to refine the knowledge about terrace phases and uplift history in the middle-late Pleistocene in a sector of the Apulian foreland (western coast of the Salento Peninsula, southern Italy). These combined methodologies provide the first chronological attribution for middle-late Pleistocene palaeoshorelines and quantitative assessment of vertical crustal movements in this sector of the Apulian foreland, which, to date, has been characterised by a scarcity of reliable chronological data.By applying a synchronous correlation technique driven by new AAR analyses, we iterate different uplift rate scenarios to find the best match between digital terrain model and field-based observed palaeoshorelines and “expected” sea level highstand elevations.Our results show that two uplift rate scenarios could explain the mapped geomorphology: (i) scenario 1 suggests fluctuating uplift rates over time with an uplift rate of 0.15 mm/y until 130 ky BP (middle Pleistocene, interval MIS 15 - MIS 6; that is, 590 - 130 ky BP) and of 0.07 mm/y from 130 ky BP to the present; on the other hand, (ii) scenario 2 suggests a constant uplift rate of 0.12 mm/y over time in the middle-late Pleistocene.The palaeoshorelines recognised in this study are related to the following highstands: 119 ky BP (MIS 5.5 second peak), 125 ky BP (MIS 5.5), 240 ky BP (MIS 7.5), 340 ky BP (MIS 9.3), and 478 ky BP (MIS 13.1) for both scenarios 1 and 2. The two scenarios only differ in the oldest palaeoshoreline: 560 ky BP (MIS 15.3) in scenario 1 and 550 ky BP (MIS 15.1) in scenario 2.Our results highlight how the number of preserved palaeoshorelines is controlled by uplift rates; indeed, in this area, we show that fewer palaeoshorelines are preserved than in regions where higher uplift rates have beeninferred, suggesting a more prominent effect of the “overprinting” or re-occupation of younger sea level highstands over the older sea level highstands. Finally, we discuss geomorphological and geological implications of using a synchronous correlation approach, driven by new age controls, to model raised palaeoshorelines where relatively low uplift rates have been mapped within well-known geodynamically stable regions, such as the Apulian foreland, southern Italy.

Mediterranean hurricanes, also known as medicanes, can cause significant damage to coastal communities. Consequently, they have been the subject of intense study in recent decades. Geographic Information Systems (GISs) and Web-GIS applications are essential for processing and analyzing geographic data from various sources, particularly in the field of spatial planning. Due to their ability to integrate heterogeneous information, these tools can provide experts with a comprehensive overview of relevant geospatial data. Here, we present ARCHIMEDE, a relational geodatabase connected to an open-source Web-GIS platform focused on Mediterranean hurricanes that contains data from recent research on these extreme weather phenomena. These datasets comprise climatic and oceanographic data obtained from remote sensing techniques as well as seismic and geomorphological data obtained from field observations. Consequently, this Web-GIS platform can enhance our understanding of Mediterranean cyclones by relating the physical properties of these natural phenomena with their impacts on coastal regions. ARCHIMEDE is an innovative tool for the dissemination of geographic information to stakeholders, researchers, and decision-makers, offering valuable support for the development of robust coastal management strategies aimed at mitigating the challenges posed by Mediterranean hurricanes.

We reconstruct the evolution of the Ofanto River delta from the 17th century to the present using historical maps (1600–1850), official IGM topographic maps (1850–1980) and recent aerial photographs (2015), and we compare long-term morphological changes with the evolution of the delta of the Volturno River during the same time period. The aim of this study is to define the role of climatic (flood frequency, synoptic pressure patterns) and anthropogenic factors (deforestation, anthropogenic sediment subtraction of river sediment) in the evolution of the Ofanto delta. We analysed the importance of each factor on the evolution of the delta and compared them with the simultaneous behaviour of the Volturno delta to highlight the role of large-scale synoptic pressure patterns. We found that the main driver of different delta evolution phases is weather-climatic condition, while anthropogenic factors interacted with the delta evolution in different ways but did not control the first-order evolution. In particular, analysing the data on recent floods, we found that the most favourable situations for both rivers are omega-blocking, deep low-pressure trough and strong meridional circulation (mode Ω) which create Mediterranean low-pressure systems. Instead, a zonal circulation (mode W) can only cause floods on Volturno. Because the evolution of a delta is driven by the frequency of floods, and because we found that the frequency of floods is guided by synoptic patterns, a relationship can be established between delta evolution and synoptic patterns in the past. Consequently, past phases of the contemporary progradation of the Ofanto and Volturno deltas suggest the increasing frequency of mode Ω, while phases of simultaneous progradation of the Volturno delta and stability and/or retreat of the Ofanto delta are indicative of the increasing frequency of mode W. The only exception occurred during the last evolutionary phase (60 years), when anthropogenic sediment subtraction was prevalent.