East African forested mountain regions are vital in generating and supplying water resources to adjacent arid and semi-arid lowlands. However, these ecosystems are under pressure from both climate and land use changes. This study aimed to analyze the effects of climate and land use changes on water yield using the Budyko framework as a first-order conceptual framework assuming steady-state for pristine/protected forested areas. For nine selected forested water towers in East Africa, the amount and distribution of water resources and their decadal changes were analyzed. Results show that most areas inside and outside the water towers are under pressure from human influences. Water yield was more sensitive to climate changes compared to land use changes within the selected East African water towers themselves. However, for the surrounding lowlands, the effects of land use changes had greater impacts on water yield. We conclude that the East African water towers have seen a strong shift towards wetter conditions, especially in the period of 2011–2019, while, at the same time, the potential evapotranspiration is gradually increasing. Given that most of the water towers were identified as non-resilient to these changes, future water yield is likely to also experience more extreme variations.

Location-specific forms of agroforestry management can reduce problems in the forest–water–people nexus, by balancing upstream and downstream interests, but social and ecological finetuning is needed. New ways of achieving shared understanding of the underlying ecological and social-ecological relations is needed to adapt and contextualize generic solutions. Addressing these challenges between thirteen cases of tropical agroforestry scenario development across three continents requires exploration of generic aspects of issues, knowledge and participative approaches. Participative projects with local stakeholders increasingly use ‘serious gaming’. Although helpful, serious games so far (1) appear to be ad hoc, case dependent, with poorly defined extrapolation domains, (2) require heavy research investment, (3) have untested cultural limitations and (4) lack clarity on where and how they can be used in policy making. We classify the main forest–water–people nexus issues and the types of land-use solutions that shape local discourses and that are to be brought to life in the games. Four ‘prototype’ games will be further used to test hypotheses about the four problems identified constraining game use. The resulting generic forest–water–people games will be the outcome of the project “Scenario evaluation for sustainable agroforestry management through forest-water-people games” (SESAM), for which this article provides a preview.

The relation between drought severity and drought impacts is complex and relatively unexplored in the African continent. This study assesses the relation between reported drought impacts, drought indices, water scarcity and aridity across several counties in Kenya. The monthly bulletins of the National Drought Management Authority in Kenya provided drought impact data. A random forest (RF) model was used to explore which set of drought indices (standardized precipitation index, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, standardized soil moisture index and standardized streamflow index) best explains drought impacts on pasture, livestock deaths, milk production, crop losses, food insecurity, trekking distance for water and malnutrition. The findings of this study suggest a relation between drought severity and the frequency of drought impacts, whereby the latter also showed a positive relation with aridity. A relation between water scarcity and aridity was not found. The RF model revealed that every region, aggregated by aridity, had their own set of predictors for every impact category. Longer timescales (≥ 12 months) and the standardized streamflow index were strongly represented in the list of predictors, indicating the importance of hydrological drought to predict drought impact occurrences. This study highlights the potential of linking drought indices with text-based impact reports while acknowledging that the findings strongly depend on the availability of drought impact data. Moreover, it emphasizes the importance of considering spatial differences in aridity, water scarcity and socio-economic conditions within a region when exploring the relationships between drought impacts and indices.

Water-related conflicts in river catchments occur due to both internal and external pressures that affect catchment water availability. Lack of common understanding of human–water perspectives by catchment stakeholders increases the complexity of human–water issues at the river catchment scale. Among a range of participatory approaches, the development and use of serious games gained prominence as a tool to stimulate discussion and reflection among stakeholders about sustainable resource use and collective action. This study designed and implemented the ENGAGE (Exploring New Gaming Approach to Guide and Enlighten) game that mimics the dynamics observed during the dry season in the upper Ewaso Ngiro catchment, northwest of Mount Kenya. The purpose of this study was to explore the potential role of serious gaming in subsequent steps of strengthening stakeholder engagement (agenda setting, shared understanding, commitment to collective action, and means of implementation) toward addressing complex human–water challenges at the catchment scale. We assessed the type of decisions made during gameplay, the communication dynamics, the active participation, and the implication of decisions made on water availability. The results of three game sessions show that the ENGAGE game raised awareness and provided a recognizable hydrologic background to conflicts while guiding community discussions toward implementable decisions. The results revealed increasing active participation, knowledge gain, and use of plural pronouns and decreasing individual interests and conflicts among game participants. This study presents important implications for creating a collective basis for water management and can inform human–water policies and modification of the process behind water allocation rules in a river catchment.

The relation between drought severity, as expressed through widely used drought indices, and drought impacts is complex. In particular in water-limited regions where water scarcity is prevalent, the attribution of drought impacts is difficult. This study assesses the relation between reported drought impacts, drought indices, water scarcity, and aridity across several counties in Kenya. The monthly bulletins of the National Drought Management Authority in Kenya have been used to gather drought impact data. A Random Forest (RF) model was used to explore which set of drought indices best explains drought impacts on: pasture, livestock deaths, milk production, crop losses, food insecurity, trekking distance for water, and malnutrition. The findings of this study suggest a relation between drought severity and the frequency of drought impacts, whereby the latter also showed a relation with aridity, whilst water scarcity did not. The results of the RF model reveal that drought impacts can be explained by a range of drought indices across regions with different aridity. While the findings strongly depend on the availability of drought impact data and the socio-economic circumstances within a region, this study highlights the potential of linking drought indices with text-based impact reports. In doing so, however, spatial differences in aridity and water scarcity conditions have to be taken into account.