The risk related to embankment dam breaches needs to be evaluated in order to prepare emergency action plans. The physical and hydrodynamic parameters of the flood wave generated from the dam failure event correspond to various breach parameters, such as width, slope, and formation time. This study aimed to simulate the dam breach failure scenario of the Yabous dam (northeast Algeria) and analyze its influence on the related areas (urban and natural environments) downstream of the dam. The simulation was completed using the sensitivity analysis method to assess the impact of breach parameters and flooding on the dam break scenario. The flood wave propagation associated with the dam break was simulated using the one-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulic model. This study applied a sensitivity analysis of three breach parameters (slope, width, and formation time) on five sites selected downstream of the embankment dam. The simulation showed that the maximum flow of the flood wave recorded at the level of the breach was 8768 m³/s, which gradually attenuated along the river course to reach 1972.7 m³/s at about 8.5 km downstream the dam. This study established the map of flood risk areas that illustrated zones threatened by the flooding wave triggered by the dam failure due to extreme rainfall events. The sensitivity analysis showed that flood wave flow, height, and width revealed positive and similar changes for the increases in adjustments (±25% and ±50%) of breach width and slope in the five sites. However, flood wave parameters of breach formation time showed significant trends that changed in the opposite direction compared to breach slope and width. Meanwhile, the adjustments (±25% and ±50%) of the flood hydrograph did not significantly influence the flood parameters downstream of the dam. In the present study, the HEC-RAS 1-D modeling demonstrated effectiveness in simulating the propagation of flood waves downstream of the dam in the event of dam failure and highlighted the impact of the breach parameters and the flood hydrographical pattern on flood wave parameters.

Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of future droughts is essential for effective water resource management, especially in the Mediterranean region where water resources are expected to be scarcer in the future. In this study, we combined meteorological and hydrological drought indices with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict future dry years during two periods (2035–2050and 2085–2100) in a typical Mediterranean watershed in Northern Morocco, namely, Bouregreg watershed. The developed methodology was then used to evaluate drought impact on annual water yields and to identify the most vulnerable sub-basins within the study watershed. Two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of a downscaled global circulation model were used to force the calibrated SWAT model. Results indicated that Bouregreg watershed will experience several dry years with higher frequency especially at the end of current century. Significant decreases of annual water yields were simulated during dry years, ranging from −45.6% to −76.7% under RCP4.5, and from −66.7% to −95.6% under RCP8.5, compared to baseline. Overall, hydrologic systems in sub-basins under the ocean or high-altitude influence appear to be more resilient to drought. The combination of drought indices and the semi-distributed model offer a comprehensive tool to understand potential future droughts in Bouregreg watershed.