The study presents a time-dependent analysis of threats from man-made climate change at 244 UNESCO cultural and natural heritage sites in the Mediterranean. The hazards in our research are estimated by indices based on extremes of heat, fire weather conditions, heavy rainfall days, frost days, changes in mean sea level and aridity at each site. These indices were calculated from regional EUROCORDEX simulations, cover the period 1971–2100 and refer to two IPCC emission scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A combined threat index was next calculated, as explained in the text, together with its synergy with local exposure geophysical threats, such as seismicity, topography and proximity to forests and seas. All indices related to man-made climate change show an overall increasing trend from present to the end of the twenty-first century. Some of these increasing trends are intensified after the 2030s and 2040s, except for the case of the days with frost. As the global warming evolves, in both IPCC scenarios studied, the combined threat to the majority of UNESCO sites studied increases. Notable is the amplification of the threat at sites vulnerable to seismic activity and to other local or regional topography and geophysical regional characteristics. Our conclusion is that the majority of heritage sites in the Mediterranean are vulnerable to an increasing rate of threats from man-made global warming and extreme events. Seismic activity is magnifying these threats only at the sites in which that additional hazard applies. Based on the proposed combined threat index, for the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5) 35 monument sites fall within the “high hazard” and 12 sites fall under the category “extreme hazard”.

Review of the existing bibliography shows that the direction and magnitude of the long-term trends of UV irradiance, and their main drivers, vary significantly throughout Europe. Analysis of total ozone and spectral UV data recorded at four European stations during 1996–2017 reveals that long-term changes in UV are mainly driven by changes in aerosols, cloudiness, and surface albedo, while changes in total ozone play a less significant role. The variability of UV irradiance is large throughout Italy due to the complex topography and large latitudinal extension of the country. Analysis of the spectral UV records of the urban site of Rome, and the alpine site of Aosta reveals that differences between the two sites follow the annual cycle of the differences in cloudiness and surface albedo. Comparisons between the noon UV index measured at the ground at the same stations and the corresponding estimates from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) forecast model and the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI)/Aura observations reveal differences of up to 6 units between individual measurements, which are likely due to the different spatial resolution of the different datasets, and average differences of 0.5–1 unit, possibly related to the use of climatological surface albedo and aerosol optical properties in the retrieval algorithms.

The impact of simulated future climate change on land degradation was assessed in three representative study sites of Thessaly, Greece, one of the country’s most important agronomic zones. Two possible scenarios were used for estimation of future climatic conditions, which were based on greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Three time periods were selected: the reference past period 1981–2000 for comparison, and the future periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100. Based on soil characteristics, past and future climate conditions, type of land uses, and land management prevailing in the study area, the Environmentally Sensitive to desertification Areas (ESAs) were assessed for each period using the MEDALUS-ESAI index. Soil losses derived by water and tillage erosion were also assessed for the future periods using existing empirical equations. Furthermore, primary soil salinization risk was assessed using an algorithm of individual indicators related to the natural environment or socio-economic characteristics. The obtained data by both climatic scenarios predicted increases in mean maximum and mean minimum air temperature. Concerning annual precipitation, reductions are generally expected for the three study sites. Desertification risk in the future is expected to increase in comparison to the reference period. Soil losses are estimated to be more important in sloping areas, due especially to tillage erosion in at least one study site. Primary salinization risk is expected to be higher in one study site and in soils under poorly drainage conditions.

In this paper, we compare model calculations of ozone profiles and their variability for the period 1998 to 2016 with satellite and lidar profiles at five ground-based stations. Under the investigation is the temporal impact of the stratospheric halogen reduction (chemical processes) and increase in greenhouse gases (i.e., global warming) on stratospheric ozone changes. Attention is given to the effect of greenhouse gases on ultraviolet-B radiation at ground level. Our chemistry transport and chemistry climate models (Oslo CTM3 and EMAC CCM) indicate that (a) the effect of halogen reduction is maximized in ozone recovery at 1–7 hPa and observed at all lidar stations; and (b) significant impact of greenhouse gases on stratospheric ozone recovery is predicted after the year 2050. Our study indicates that solar ultraviolet-B irradiance that produces DNA damage would increase after the year 2050 by +1.3% per decade. Such change in the model is driven by a significant decrease in cloud cover due to the evolution of greenhouse gases in the future and an insignificant trend in total ozone. If our estimates prove to be true, then it is likely that the process of climate change will overwhelm the effect of ozone recovery on UV-B irradiance in midlatitudes.

The Battle of Salamis in 480 B.C. is one of the most important naval battles of all times. This work examines in detail the climatically prevailing weather conditions during the Persian invasion in Greece. We perform a climatological analysis of the wind regime in the narrow straits of Salamis, where this historic battle took place, based on available station measurements, reanalysis and modeling simulations (ERA5, WRF) spanning through the period of 1960–2019. Our results are compared to ancient sources before and during the course of the conflict and can be summarized as follows: (i) Our climatological station measurements and model runs describing the prevailing winds in the area of interest are consistent with the eyewitness descriptions reported by ancient historians and (ii) The ancient Greeks and particularly Themistocles must have been aware of the local wind climatology since their strategic plan was carefully designed and implemented to take advantage of the diurnal wind variation. The combination of northwest wind during the night and early morning, converging with a south sea breeze after 10:00 A.M., formed a “pincer” that aided the Greeks at the beginning of the clash in the morning, while it brought turmoil to the Persian fleet and prevented them to escape to the open sea in the early afternoon hours.

Forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services which are important for achieving sustainable development. Anthropogenic climate change has led to the increased frequency and severity of forest fires, which imply losses of valuable ecosystem services. This paper provides a methodological framework based on Multiple Criteria Decision Aid methods for determining relative regional vulnerabilities associated with forest fires. Different notions of ex-post vulnerability are defined based on the forest area burned and the frequency of forest fires, and their relation to the regions’ area and certain socioeconomic characteristics. The climatic drivers of forest fire occurrence are explored by linking forest fires with summer and spring temperatures and precipitation, using econometric count data analysis. The methodology is applied to Greece and its administrative regions for the period 2000–2022. Ex-post vulnerability of regions to forest fires based on physical and socioeconomic characteristics is calculated, and expected changes in the frequency of fires of specific size classes conditional on the evolution of mean seasonal regional temperature and precipitation according to IPCC scenarios are predicted. Relative vulnerability estimates and the impact of specific climatic drivers on forest fires will be useful in designing policies for preserving forests as natural capital and promoting sustainability.