Due to their rarity and intensity, Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones (TLCs; also known as medicanes) have been a subject of study over the last decades and lately the interest has undoubtedly grown. The current study investigates a well-documented TLC event crossed south Sicily on November 7–8, 2014 and the added value of higher spatial horizontal resolution through a physics parameterization sensitivity analysis. For this purpose, Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.9) is used to dynamically downscale ECMWF Re-Analysis (version 5) (ERA5) reanalysis 31 km spatial resolution to 16 km and 4 km, as parent and inner domain, respectively. In order to increase the variability and disparity of the results, spectral nudging was implemented on both domains and the outputs were compared against satellite observations and ground-based stations. Although, the study produces mixed results, there is a clear indication that the increase of resolution benefits specific aspects of the cyclone, while it deteriorates others, based on both ground and upper air analyses. The sensitivity of the parent domain displays an overall weak variability while the simulations demonstrate a positive time-lag predicting a less symmetric cyclone with weak warm core. On the contrary, inner domain analysis shows stronger variability between the model simulations reproducing more distinct clear tropical characteristics with less delayed TLC development for most of the experiments.

We present the development of a physically-based dust source map for the GOCART-AFWA dust module in WRF-Chem model. The new parameterization is based on MODIS-NDVI and an updated emission strength map is computed every 15 days from the latest satellite observations. Modeling simulations for the period April–May 2017 over the Mediterranean, north Africa, and the Middle East are compared with observations of AOD at 31 AERONET stations. The new module is capable of reproducing the dust sources at finer detail. The overall performance of the model is improved, especially for stronger dust episodes with AOD > 0.25. For this threshold the model BIAS decreases from −0.20 to −0.02, the RMSE from 0.38 to 0.30, the Correlation Coefficient improves from 0.21 to 0.47, the fractional gross error (FGE) from 0.62 to 0.40, and the mean fractional bias (MFB) from −0.49 to −0.08. Similar improvement is also found for the lower AOD thresholds (>0.0 and >0.1), especially for the stations in Europe, the Mediterranean, Sahel, the Middle East, and Arabian Peninsula, which are mostly affected by dust transport during the experimental period. An overprediction of AOD, compared to the original dust-source scheme, is found for some stations in the Sahara desert, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Iberian Peninsula. In total, 124 out of the 170 statistical scores that are calculated indicate improvement of model performance.

Forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services which are important for achieving sustainable development. Anthropogenic climate change has led to the increased frequency and severity of forest fires, which imply losses of valuable ecosystem services. This paper provides a methodological framework based on Multiple Criteria Decision Aid methods for determining relative regional vulnerabilities associated with forest fires. Different notions of ex-post vulnerability are defined based on the forest area burned and the frequency of forest fires, and their relation to the regions’ area and certain socioeconomic characteristics. The climatic drivers of forest fire occurrence are explored by linking forest fires with summer and spring temperatures and precipitation, using econometric count data analysis. The methodology is applied to Greece and its administrative regions for the period 2000–2022. Ex-post vulnerability of regions to forest fires based on physical and socioeconomic characteristics is calculated, and expected changes in the frequency of fires of specific size classes conditional on the evolution of mean seasonal regional temperature and precipitation according to IPCC scenarios are predicted. Relative vulnerability estimates and the impact of specific climatic drivers on forest fires will be useful in designing policies for preserving forests as natural capital and promoting sustainability.

The paper provides a methodological framework based on Multiple Criteria Decision Aid methods for determining relative regional vulnerabilities associated with forest fires that occurred during a given period. Different notions of ex-post vulnerability are defined based on the forest area burned and the frequency of forest fires, and their relation to the regions’ area and several socioeconomic characteristics. The methodology is applied to Greece and its administrative regions for the period 2000–2022. Linking the forest fire events with summer and spring temperatures and precipitation and using econometric count data analysis, the paper explores the climatic drivers of forest fire occurrence and provides projections of the expected change in the frequency of fires of specific size classes conditional on the evolution of mean seasonal regional temperature and precipitation according to IPCC scenarios. The results regarding relative regional vulnerabilities and expected forest fires could be useful in designing policies for preserving forests as natural capital and promoting sustainability.

It is well established that exposure to heat-stress conditions significantly impacts the physiology, health, welfare, and productivity of both sheep and cattle. The aim of this study was to apply the Temperature Humidity Index (THI) in order to assess the impact of future climate conditions on the thermal stress exposure of sheep and cattle in Greece. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used as a high-resolution regional climate model to simulate climate conditions for two decades in Greece at a 10 Km spatial resolution and a 1 h temporal resolution. The WRF model was applied to two emission scenarios, namely SSP2-4.5 (intermediate) and SSP5-8.5 (worst-case). Projections were made for the near-future decade (2046–2055), with the decade (2005–2014) serving as the reference period for comparative analysis. The data analysis indicated that under the SSP2-4.5 emission scenario, the mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.2–1.4 °C and 1.4–1.6 °C across 38% and 58% of the country’s territory, respectively. Increases higher than 1.6 °C are projected across 32% of the Greek territory under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. The mean THI (sheep) and mean THI (adj) (cattle) are projected to increase by 5–10% and by 4% across 74% and 82% of the Greek territory, respectively, when considering the SSP2-4.5 emission scenario. Slightly more severe mean heat-stress conditions were projected when considering the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. The analysis of the hourly THI values showed that sheep and cattle are expected to experience heat-stress conditions during extended periods in the future, in which hot weather will prevail. Specifically, the number of severe/danger heat-stress hours is projected to double in the greater part of the country. To mitigate the adverse effects of climate-change-induced thermal stress on animal productivity, health, and welfare, the implementation of adaptation measures and best management practices is strongly recommended for sheep and cattle farmers. These measures encompass improvements in breeding strategies, livestock housing and microclimate management, nutritional interventions, and the adoption of precision livestock farming technologies. Given the outstanding economic, social, and environmental importance of sheep and cattle farming in Greece, effective adaptation to and mitigation of climate change impacts represent urgent priorities to ensure the long-term sustainability and resilience of the livestock sector.

In the present study, the spatial and temporal variability of the Aridity Index (AI) in the Mediterranean region during the 30-year period 1971–2000 is analyzed. The analysis is performed on a decadal timescale. Subsequently, the projected change in the AI in the periods 2031–2060 (near future) and 2071–2100 (far future) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios in comparison with 1971–2000 (reference period) is presented. The input of the calculations are simulation results supplied by the CORDEX EU project. In total, an ensemble of 20 combinations of global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) are used. The calculation of the AI is based on potential evapotranspiration, which, in turn, is calculated according to the classic method of Thornthwaite. Our results show that drier conditions are to be expected in the future along a wide zone in southern Europe, including Spain, Italy, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey, as well as in Northern Africa, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario and towards the end of the century.