Clustering methods are increasingly being applied to residential smart meter data, which provides a number of important opportunities for distribution network operators (DNOs) to manage and plan low-voltage networks. Clustering has a number of potential advantages for DNOs, including the identification of suitable candidates for demand response and the improvement of energy profile modeling. However, due to the high stochasticity and irregularity of household-level demand, detailed analytics are required to define appropriate attributes to cluster. In this paper, we present in-depth analysis of customer smart meter data to better understand the peak demand and major sources of variability in their behavior. We find four key time periods, in which the data should be analyzed, and use this to form relevant attributes for our clustering. We present a finite mixture model-based clustering, where we discover ten distinct behavior groups describing customers based on their demand and their variability. Finally, using an existing bootstrap technique, we show that the clustering is reliable. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first time in the power systems literature that the sample robustness of the clustering has been tested.

As low carbon technologies become more pervasive, distribution network operators are looking to support the expected changes in the demands on the low voltage networks through the smarter control of storage devices. Accurate forecasts of demand at the individual household-level, or of small aggregations of households, can improve the peak demand reduction brought about through such devices by helping to plan the most appropriate charging and discharging cycles. However, before such methods can be developed, validation measures which can assess the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts of the volatile and noisy household-level demand are required. In this paper we introduce a new forecast verification error measure that reduces the so-called “double penalty” effect, incurred by forecasts whose features are displaced in space or time, compared to traditional point-wise metrics, such as the Mean Absolute Error, and p-norms in general. The measure that we propose is based on finding a restricted permutation of the original forecast that minimises the point-wise error, according to a given metric. We illustrate the advantages of our error measure using half-hourly domestic household electrical energy usage data recorded by smart meters, and discuss the effect of the permutation restriction

Reinforcing the Low Voltage (LV) distribution network will become essential to ensure it remains within its operating constraints as demand on the network increases. The deployment of energy storage in the distribution network provides an alternative to conventional reinforcement. This paper presents a control methodology for energy storage to reduce peak demand in a distribution network based on day-ahead demand forecasts and historical demand data. The control methodology pre-processes the forecast data prior to a planning phase to build in resilience to the inevitable errors between the forecasted and actual demand. The algorithm uses no real time adjustment so has an economical advantage over traditional storage control algorithms. Results show that peak demand on a single phase of a feeder can be reduced even when there are differences between the forecasted and the actual demand. In particular, results are presented that demonstrate when the algorithm is applied to a large number of single phase demand aggregations that it is possible to identify which of these aggregations are the most suitable candidates for the control methodology.

Energy storage is a potential alternative to conventional network reinforcement of the low voltage (LV) distribution network to ensure the grid’s infrastructure remains within its operating constraints. This paper presents a study on the control of such storage devices, owned by distribution network operators. A deterministic model predictive control (MPC) controller and a stochastic receding horizon controller (SRHC) are presented, where the objective is to achieve the greatest peak reduction in demand, for a given storage device specification, taking into account the high level of uncertainty in the prediction of LV demand. The algorithms presented in this paper are compared to a standard set-point controller and bench marked against a control algorithm with a perfect forecast. A specific case study, using storage on the LV network, is presented, and the results of each algorithm are compared. A comprehensive analysis is then carried out simulating a large number of LV networks of varying numbers of households. The results show that the performance of each algorithm is dependent on the number of aggregated households. However, on a typical aggregation, the novel SRHC algorithm presented in this paper is shown to outperform each of the comparable storage control techniques.