The estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of a single well must be predicted to achieve scale-effective shale gas extraction. Accurately forecasting EUR is difficult due to the impact of various geological, engineering, and production factors. Based on data from 200 wells in the Weiyuan block, this paper used Pearson correlation and mutual information to eliminate the factors with a high correlation among the 31 EUR influencing factors. The RF-RFE algorithm was then used to identify the six most important factors controlling the EUR of shale gas wells. XGBoost, RF, SVM, and MLR models were built and trained with the six dominating factors screened as features and EUR as labels. In this process, the model parameters were optimized, and finally the prediction accuracies of the models were compared. The results showed that the thickness of a high-quality reservoir was the dominating factor in geology; the high-quality reservoir length drilled, the fracturing fluid volume, the proppant volume, and the fluid volume per length were the dominating factors in engineering; and the 360−day flowback rate was the dominating factor in production. Compared to the SVM and MLR models, the XG Boost and the RF models based on integration better predicted EUR. The XGBoost model had a correlation coefficient of 0.9 between predicted and observed values, and its standard deviation was closest to the observed values’ standard deviation, making it the best model for EUR prediction among the four types of models. Identifying the dominating factors of shale gas single-well EUR can provide significant guidance for development practice, and using the optimized XGBoost model to forecast the shale gas single-well EUR provides a novel idea for predicting shale gas well production.

It is necessary to carry out experiments on cores with different degrees of crack development when studying the seepage law of cracked reservoirs and evaluating cracks. The seepage experiment in the laboratory requires cores with different degrees of microcrack development; cores obtained via conventional drilling cannot meet the requirements, and the efficacies and evaluation methods of geological parameters used for artificial cracks are not perfect. In this study, cores are loaded using a triaxial gripper, and cracks are produced by changing the difference of stress; the relationship between the increased rate of permeability and the change in stress concentration is used to evaluate the degree of development of the crack in real time. The angle between the cracks and the maximum principal stress direction, calculated using the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion, is 20–27.5°, which provides theoretical support for the process of crack creation. The experimental results show that the permeability variation curve shows two obvious turning points, which divide the whole zone into a reduction zone, a slow increase zone, and a rapid increase zone. Through the obtained experimental and evaluation results, a complete system for crack creation and evaluation is established, which can provide strong support for the study of cracked reservoirs.

Stress sensitivity occurs throughout the reservoir development process, especially in the study of low permeability tight reservoir, considering the influence of stress sensitivity is particularly important. When studying stress sensitivity, the current main experimental methods are variable confining pressure and variable fluid pressure methods, but they cannot simulate the stress sensitivity during water injection development. Therefore, in this paper, an experimental stress sensitivity method that can be used to study the depletion mining and water injection development processes is established. In addition, the influence of different degrees of microcrack development on the stress sensitivity of the reservoir is investigated. The results of this study show that under the experimental conditions described in this article, the loading of axial compression plays a role of preloading stress and realizes the whole process of stress sensitivity under the condition that the fluid pressure is lower than the confining pressure. In the experiment, the permeability growth rate of matrix cores does not exceed 20%. For cores containing microcracks, when the axial pressure was less than 30 MPa, the permeability slowly increased with increasing fluid pressure. When the axial pressure was 30 MPa, the permeability changes are mainly divided into two stages. In the first stage, the microcracks are closed under compressive stress. At this time, the microcracks have a limited impact on the seepage capacity. The permeability increases slowly with increasing fluid pressure. In the second stage, the permeability rapidly increases after the microcracks open. These two stages can be described by two straight lines. The slope of the first line has nothing to do with the development of microcracks; the higher the degree of microcrack development, the greater the slope of the straight line of the second stage. For all of the cores, the permeability decreases as the axial pressure increases.

The occurrence mechanism of methane is very important as evaluating the gas-bearing properties of marine shale reservoirs, and the evaluation of the development effect of shale gas wells need to focus on the migration mechanism of methane. In this study, LTNA technology and NMR technology were used to analyze the pores and methane of shale. The results show that inorganic pores have better connectivity, larger pore size, and micro–nano cracks between pores compared to organic pores. Most of the pores in shale are micropores and mesopores, which provide most of the specific surface area, but the contribution of macropores to pore volume cannot be ignored. Adsorbed gas volume depends on the pore surface area and gas pressure, while free gas volume depends on pore volume and gas pressure. The pore structure of micropores and mesopores is complex, and the specific surface area is large. The dispersion force between pore surface molecules and methane molecules is firm, which makes the pore wall an ideal enrichment space for adsorbed gas. Macropores have larger pore volumes and can store more free gas. In the process of gas well development, free gas is first discharged from pores under the action of the pressure gradient. As the pore pressure is lower than the critical desorption pressure, adsorbed gas begins to desorb in large quantities. It should be noted that the desorption process of adsorbed gas is slow and persistent, which makes it impossible for gas wells to achieve higher recovery in a shorter production cycle. Therefore, improving the recovery rate of adsorbed gas is the key to future research on shale gas development effects. This study is helpful in clarifying the occurrence and migration mechanism of methane in marine shale reservoirs and guiding the development of gas wells.

Tight oil reservoirs are characterized by a low porosity, low permeability, and strong heterogeneity. The macropores, throats, and microcracks in reservoirs are the main seepage channels, which affect the seepage law in the reservoirs. In particular, oil-water two-phase flow in different types of pores requires further study. In this study, two groups of online NMR displacement experiments were designed to study the seepage characteristics of tight oil reservoirs. It was found that the main seepage channels for oil-water two-phase flow are the microcracks, large pores, and throats in the reservoir. The large pores are mainly micron and submicron scale in size. The oil in the small pores is only transferred to the large pores through imbibition to participate in the flow, and there is no two-phase flow. Based on the influence of different pore structures on the seepage law of a tight reservoir, the pores were divided into seepage zones, and a multistage seepage model for tight reservoirs was established. Based on this model, the effects of the imbibition, stress sensitivity, threshold pressure gradient, and Jamin effect on model’s yield were studied. The results show that imbibition is no longer effective after a while. Owing to the stress sensitivity, the threshold pressure gradient, and the Jamin effect, oil production will be reduced. As the parameter value increases, the oil production decreases. The production decreases rapidly in the early stage of mining while decreases slowly in the later stage, exhibiting a trend of high yield in the early stage and stable yield in the later stage.

The separation of solution gas has great influence on the development of gas-bearing tight oil reservoirs. In this study, physical simulation and high-pressure mercury intrusion were used to establish a method for determining the porous flow resistance gradient of gas-bearing tight oil reservoirs. A mathematical model suitable for injection–production well networks is established based on the streamline integral method. The concept of pseudo-bubble point pressure is proposed. The experimental results show that as the back pressure decreases from above the bubble point pressure to below the bubble point pressure, the solution gas separates out. During this process, the porous flow resistance gradient is initially equal to the threshold pressure gradient of the oil single-phase fluid, then it becomes relatively small and stable, and finally it increases rapidly and exponentially. The lower the permeability, the higher the pseudo-bubble point pressure, and the higher the resistance gradient under the same back pressure. For tight reservoirs, the production pressure should be maintained above the pseudo-bubble point pressure when the permeability is lower than a certain value. When the permeability is higher than a certain value, the pressure can be reduced below the pseudo-bubble point pressure, and there is a reasonable range. The mathematical results show that after degassing, the oil production rate and the effective utilization coefficient of oil wells decline rapidly. These declines occur later and have a flat trend for high permeability formations, and the production well pressure can be reduced to a lower level. Fracturing can effectively increase the oil production rate after degassing. A formation that cannot be utilized before fracturing because of the blocked throats due to the separation of the solution gas can also be utilized after fracturing. When the production well pressure is lower than the bubble point pressure, which is not too large, the fracturing effect is better.