Energy supply disruptions highlight the need to study the design of energy infrastructure networks from the security of supply point of view. For this purpose, a Monte-Carlo simulation-based approach has been developed to analyse disruptions in the gas transmission network. The developed simulation model gives realistic results in several problems studied, vulnerability analysis being one of them. The vulnerability identification algorithm is used for finding a combination of component failures leading to the most significant security of supply disruptions. The paper presents a test study case of the European gas transmission network represented by a stochastic flow network in which elements can randomly fail with given failure probabilities. Failure modelling of key gas transmission network components (pipelines, LNG terminals and compressor stations) is presented and discussed. Although the network is quite resistant to any single component failure, the results indicate that a simultaneous failure of two or more gas network nodes can have fatal security of supply consequences.

The “Clean Energy for all Europeans” package highlights the need to create a resilient critical energy infrastructure in the European Union. Resilience is an emerging term to describe the energy system’s ability to withstand shocks caused by natural hazards, technical accidents, or intentional threats. In this paper, a framework to assess the resilience of energy systems using quantitative indicators is presented. Two main groups of resilience indicators are proposed that depend on what is being measured within the energy system: capacity (attribute-based) indicators or performance in the presence of disruption (performance-based) indicators. This study concentrates on the first resilience phase, when the energy system has to absorb the impact of the shock. The approach considers various disruptions (both internal and external) as triggering events. There is a particular focus on future shocks affecting the prospective energy system, which will have changed with respect to the current one. The future foresight capabilities and potential of the selected resilience indicators are demonstrated using calculations for the Lithuanian energy system. The results revealed that the most important factors that impact energy system resilience are a rich electricity production mix and the diversification of both supply and production in the prospective energy system.

The paper addresses resilience assessment of a power system due to disruption of interconnecting power lines. In the current times of geopolitical instability, certain EU regions are in particular vulnerable. The power system analysed is based on an anonymized EU region well interconnected with other Member States. Employing the PyPSA-Eur model, the paper analysis cross border power disruptions of 10 scenarios. The study aims to quantify consequences of possible disruptions, introduces resilience index and rank the disruption scenarios. In addition, gas supply disruption in the region was analysed as a sensitivity case study affecting several disruption scenarios.

The transition toward carbon neutrality is accelerating the deployment of renewable energy sources (RES), creating new challenges for power balance, stability, and renewable generation curtailment. In the Baltic States, this RES growth coincides with synchronization with the Central European Synchronous Area, which poses additional technical and operational challenges. This paper evaluates the integration of offshore wind farms (OWFs) into the Lithuanian power system for 2027 and 2035, focusing on their impact on system operation, transmission loading, power balance and power system strength. A methodology based on extrapolated historical hourly data is applied to assess Lithuanian power system security under large-scale RES penetration, identifying critical contingencies and lines most prone to overloading. Results indicate that in 2027, network overloads may occur under N–1 contingencies when OWF capacity reaches 1400 MW; higher capacities require curtailment to maintain the generation–load balance. In 2035, planned grid reinforcements eliminate N–1 overloads. However, in both years, system strength remains the limiting factor. With an admissible short-circuit ratio (SCR) of 3, the maximum allowable OWF capacity is 1141 MW in 2027 and 1582 MW in 2035 under N–1, and 562 MW and 1039 MW under N–2 conditions.