Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events.

Landslide geodatabases, including inventories and thematic data, today are fundamental tools for national and/or local authorities in susceptibility, hazard and risk management. A well organized landslide geo-database contains different kinds of data such as past information (landslide inventory maps), ancillary data and updated remote sensing (space-borne and ground based) data, which can be integrated in order to produce landslide susceptibility maps, updated landslide inventory maps and hazard and risk assessment maps. Italy is strongly affected by landslide phenomena which cause victims and significant economic damage to buildings and infrastructure, loss of productive soils and pasture lands. In particular, the Messina Province (southern Italy) represents an area where landslides are recurrent and characterized by high magnitude, due to several predisposing factors (e.g. morphology, land use, lithologies) and different triggering mechanisms (meteorological conditions, seismicity, active tectonics and volcanic activity). For this area, a geodatabase was created by using different monitoring techniques, including remote sensing (e.g. SAR satellite ERS1/2, ENVISAT, RADARSAT-1, TerraSAR-X, COSMO-SkyMed) data, and in situ measurements (e.g. GBInSAR, damage assessment). In this paper a complete landslide geodatabase of the Messina Province, designed following the requirements of the local and national Civil Protection authorities, is presented. This geo-database was used to produce maps (e.g. susceptibility, ground deformation velocities, damage assessment, risk zonation) which today are constantly used by the Civil Protection authorities to manage the landslide hazard of the Messina Province

Stromboli volcano (Southern Italy) is one of the most monitored volcano in the world with a surveillance network that includes a permanently sited ground-based SAR interferometer (GBInSAR). This work is the review of the GBInSAR data gained from the last decade of monitoring activity. The analysis of the entire dataset of GBInSAR measurements allowed the assessment of the deformation field of the northern part of the summit crater area and the Sciara del Fuoco depression. In detail, the main displacements recognized can be related to different factors: 1) the inflation/deflation respectively immediately before and after each new effusive event; 2) the bulging of localized sectors of the volcano involved in the vent opening; 3) the gravitational sliding of the Sciara del Fuoco infill; 4) the movement of lava flows. Accelerations in this sector are related to sheet intrusions, while the possibility of vent opening, associated with small sliding, or catastrophic flank failure are related to highly overpressurized sheets, able to produce high displacement rate in the Sciara del Fuoco.In the summit crater area, the increases in the displacement rate are related to the pressurization of the shallow conduit system, as the consequence of the variation in the magma level (magmastatic pressure) or to the lateral magma migration (lateral conduit expansion or dike intrusion) in response to the increase of the overpressure component. Fluctuations in the displacement rate in the summit crater area can be related to the magma overturning within the conduit, with the increases in displacement rate during the upwelling of less dense magma, while displacement rate decreases as the degassed magma column is pushed out from the conduit (lava flows or overflows). Instead, the decrease in the displacement rate without coeval lava outpouring could be related to the sink of the degassed magma due to density contrast between the gas-poor and the gas-charged magmas. Using the displacement rate in the summit crater area as a proxy for the variation in the pressure condition in conduit (both magmastatic and overpressure components), thresholds for the crises characterized by the occurrence of overflows (eventually associated with major explosions) and flank effusions (eventually associated with paroxysmal explosions) are identified. Small conduit overpressure will produce overflows (sometimes associated with crater-rim collapses), while large magma overpressure will laterally expand the conduit forming NE-SW striking sheets, feeding eruptive vents at the base of the summit crater area and within the Sciara del Fuoco, generating conditions of instability that can evolve into catastrophic collapse of the instable flank

Stromboli (Aeolian Archipelago, Italy) is an active volcano that is frequently affected by moderate to large mass wasting, which has occasionally triggered tsunamis. With the aim of understanding the relationship between the geomorphologic evolution and slope instability of Stromboli, remote sensing information from space-born Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) change detection and interferometry (InSAR) and Ground Based InSAR (GBInSAR) was compared with field observations and morphological analyses. Ground reflectivity and SqueeSARâ\u84¢ (an InSAR algorithm for surface deformation monitoring) displacement measurements from X-band COSMO-SkyMed satellites (CSK) were analysed together with displacement measurements from a permanent-sited, Ku-band GBInSAR system. Remote sensing results were compared with a preliminary morphological analysis of the Sciara del Fuoco (SdF) steep volcanic flank, which was carried out using a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Finally, field observations, supported by infrared thermographic surveys (IRT), allowed the interpretation and validation of remote sensing data. The analysis of the entire dataset (collected between January 2010 and December 2014) covers a period characterized by a low intensity of Strombolian activity. This period was punctuated by the occurrence of lava overflows, occurring from the crater terrace evolving downslope toward SdF, and flank eruptions, such as the 2014 event. The amplitude of the CSK images collected between February 22nd, 2010, and December 18th, 2014, highlights that during periods characterized by low-intensity Strombolian activity, the production of materials ejected from the crater terrace towards the SdF is generally low, and erosion is the prevailing process mainly affecting the central sector of the SdF. CSK-SqueeSARâ\u84¢ and GBInSAR data allowed the identification of low displacements in the SdF, except for high displacement rates (up to 1.5 mm/h) that were measured following both lava delta formation after the 2007 eruption and the lava overflows of 2010 and 2011. After the emplacement of the 2014 lava field, high displacements in the central and northern portions of the SdF were recorded by the GBInSAR device, whereas the spaceborne data were unable to detect these rapid movements. A comparison between IRT images and GBInSAR-derived displacement maps acquired during the same time interval revealed that the observed displacements along the SdF were related to the crumbling of newly emplaced 2014 lava and of its external breccia. Detected slope instability after the 2014 flank eruption was related to lava accumulation on the SdF and to the difference in the material underlying the 2014 lava flow: i) lava flows and breccia layers related to the 2002â\u80\u9303 and 2007 lava flow fields in the northern SdF sector and ii) loose volcaniclastic deposits in the central part of the SdF. This work emphasizes the importance of smart integration of spaceborne, SAR-derived hazard information with permanent-sited, operational monitoring by GBInSAR devices to detect areas impacted by mass wasting and volcanic activity