Stromboli, the northernmost island of the Aeolian archipelago, is known for its persistent volcanic activity over the last several centuries and for its cone which, on clear days, is surmounted by a gas plume rising from its summit. The island hosts two settled areas: the village of Stromboli ( c. 500 inhabitants) to the NE and that of Ginostra ( c. 40 inhabitants) to the SW, both situated along the coast. In summer the number of residents grows considerably, reaching c. 5000 people. This paper provides a description of the present activity and reassesses volcanic hazards on the basis of data from a new monitoring system and from studies on the 2002–2003 and 2007 crises. The normal activity, that of mild Strombolian explosions, is occasionally interrupted by violent eruptions of variable scale (paroxysmal events) and lava flows. Volcanic hazards directly generated by eruptive activity consist of ballistic and tephra fallout, pyroclastic flows, lava flows, wildfires and minor lahars, presenting serious problems to the settled areas only occasionally. In addition to hazards directly related to eruptive phenomena, the Sciara del Fuoco depression has been the site of landslides at various scales, sometimes accompanied by the formation of tsunamis.
19 March 2015 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Campi Flegrei is an active volcanic area situated in the Campanian Plain (Italy) and dominated by a resurgent caldera. The great majority of past eruptions have been explosive, variable in magnitude, intensity, and in their vent locations. In this hazard assessment study we present a probabilistic analysis using a variety of volcanological data sets to map the background spatial probability of vent opening conditional on the occurrence of an event in the foreseeable future. The analysis focuses on the reconstruction of the location of past eruptive vents in the last 15 ka, including the distribution of faults and surface fractures as being representative of areas of crustal weakness. One of our key objectives was to incorporate some of the main sources of epistemic uncertainty about the volcanic system through a structured expert elicitation, thereby quantifying uncertainties for certain important model parameters and allowing outcomes from different expert weighting models to be evaluated. Results indicate that past vent locations are the most informative factors governing the probabilities of vent opening, followed by the locations of faults and then fractures. Our vent opening probability maps highlight the presence of a sizeable region in the central eastern part of the caldera where the likelihood of new vent opening per kilometer squared is about 6 times higher than the baseline value for the whole caldera. While these probability values have substantial uncertainties associated with them, our findings provide a rational basis for hazard mapping of the next eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera.
Long‐lasting, hybrid eruptions can be of complex description and classification, especially when associated with multiple eruptive styles and multiple products. The 2021 Tajogaite eruption of La Palma, Canary Islands, was associated with a magma‐gas decoupled system that resulted in the simultaneous emission of lava flows and tephra plumes from various vents. Even though the tephra blanket (∼2 × 107 m3) represents only 7%–16% of the total erupted volume, it provides fundamental insights into the overall eruptive dynamics. Tephra was mostly dispersed NE‐SW due to a complex regional and local wind patterns and was subdivided into 3 units and 11 layers that well correlate at different distances from the vent and with both tremor data and lava emission rate. While plume height varied at the temporal scale of a few hours, the average mass eruption rate associated with the tephra blanket of the different units remained relatively constant (∼3–4 × 103 kg s−1). In contrast, the emission rate of lava largely increased after the first week and remained higher than the overall emission of tephra throughout the whole eruption (average value of ∼6 × 104 kg s−1). Based on a detailed characterization of the tephra blanket in combination with atmospheric wind, tremor, and lava emission trend, we demonstrate the need of (a) multidisciplinary strategies for the description of hybrid eruptions that account for both the duration of individual phases and the quantification of the mass of multiple products, and of (b) dedicated ash dispersal forecasting strategies that account for the frequent variations of eruptive and atmospheric conditions.