Environmental managers and policymakers increasingly discuss trade-offs between ecosystem services (ESs). However, few studies have used nonlinear models to provide scenario-specific land-use planning. This study determined the effects of different future land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios on ESs in the Yili River Valley, China, and analyzed the trade-offs and synergistic response characteristics. We simulated land-use changes in the Yili River Valley during 2020–2030 under three different scenarios using a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model—business as usual (BAU), economic development (ED), and ecological conservation (EC). Subsequently, we evaluated the water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR), and nutrient export (NE) ESs by combining the PLUS and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) models, thus exploring multiple trade-offs among these four ESs at a regional scale. For the BAU scenario, there are some synergistic effects between WY and SR in the Yili River Valley, in addition to significant trade-off effects between CS and NE. For the ED scenario, the rapid expansion of cropland and constructed land is at the expense of forested grassland, leading to a significant decline in ESs. For the EC scenario, the model predicted that the cumulative regional net future carbon storage, cumulative water retention, and cumulative soil conservation would all increase due to ecological engineering and the revegetation of riparian zones and that formerly steep agricultural land can be effective in improving ESs. Meanwhile, the trade-off effect would be significantly weakened between CS and NE. These results can inform decision makers on specific sites where ecological engineering is implemented. Our findings can enhance stakeholders’ understanding of the interactions between ESs indicators in different scenarios.

Enhancing global agricultural sustainability critically requires improving the physicochemical properties of saline–alkali soil. Biochar has gained increasing attention as a strategy due to its unique properties. However, its effect on the physicochemical properties of saline–alkali soil varies significantly. This study uses psychometric meta-analysis across 137 studies to synthesize the findings from 1447 relatively independent data sets. This study investigates the effects of biochar with different characteristics on the top 20 cm of various saline–alkali soils. In addition, aggregated boosted tree (ABT) analysis was used to identify the key factors of biochar influencing the physicochemical properties of saline soils. The results showed that biochar application has a positive effect on improving soil properties by reducing the sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) and the exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP) by 30.31% and 28.88%, respectively, with a notable 48.97% enhancement in cation exchange capacity (CEC). A significant inverse relationship was found between soil salinity (SC) and ESP, while other factors were synergistic. Biochar application to mildly saline soil (0.4%). However, the reduction in SC in highly saline soil was 4.9 times greater than in moderately saline soils. The enhancement of soil physical properties positively correlated with higher biochar application rates, largely driven by soil movements associated with the migration of soil moisture. Biochar produced at 401–500 °C was generally the most effective in improving the physicochemical properties of various saline–alkali soils. In water surplus regions, for mildly saline soil with pH < 8.5, mixed biochar (pH 6–8) at 41–80 t ha⁻¹ was the most effective in soil improvement. Moreover, in water deficit areas with soil at pH ≥ 8.5, biochar with pH ≤ 6 applied at rates of >80 t ha⁻¹ showed the greatest benefits. Agricultural residue biochar showed superior efficiency in ameliorating highly alkaline (pH ≥ 8.5) soil. In contrast, the use of mixed types of biochar was the most effective in the amelioration of other soil types.

Timely and accurate estimation of Above-Ground-Biomass (AGB) in cotton is essential for precise production monitoring. The study was conducted in Shaya County, Aksu Region, Xinjiang, China. It employed an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) as a low-altitude monitoring platform to capture multispectral images of the cotton canopy. Subsequently, spectral features and textural features were extracted, and feature selection was conducted using Pearson’s correlation (P), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Multivariate Stepwise Regression (MSR), and the ReliefF algorithm (RfF), combined with the machine learning algorithm to construct an estimation model of cotton AGB. The results indicate a high consistency between the mean (MEA) and the corresponding spectral bands in textural features with the AGB correlation. Moreover, spectral and textural feature fusion proved to be more stable than models utilizing single spectral features or textural features alone. Both the RfF algorithm and ANN model demonstrated optimization effects on features, and their combination effectively reduced the data redundancy while improving the model performance. The RfF-ANN-AGB model constructed based on the spectral and textural features fusion worked better, and using the features SIPI2, RESR, G_COR, and RE_DIS, exhibited the best performance, achieving a test sets R² of 0.86, RMSE of 0.23 kg·m⁻², MAE of 0.16 kg·m⁻², and nRMSE of 0.39. The findings offer a comprehensive modeling strategy for the precise and rapid estimation of cotton AGB.

High-density planting is an effective technique to optimize yields of mulched cotton. On the other hand, deficit irrigation is an emerging water-saving strategy in cotton cultivation, especially suitable for arid and water-scarce areas. However, the relationships between deficit irrigation, high-density planting, and regulation mechanisms of canopy light radiation and light use efficiency (LUE) in cotton is not yet clear. To clarify the mechanism of light interception (LI) and the LUE of cotton canopies, three irrigation treatments [315 (50% Fc), 405 (75% Fc, farmers’ irrigation practice), and 495 mm (100% Fc), where Fc was the field capacity] with three plant densities [13.5, 18.0 (farmers’ planting practice), and 22.5 plants m²] were applied. The findings of this research revealed that, under deficit irrigation, the above-ground dry matter (ADM) was reduced by 5.05% compared to the farmers’ irrigation practice. Over both years and across all plant densities, LI and LUE under deficit irrigation decreased by 8.36% and 4.79%, respectively, relative to the farmers’ irrigation practices. In contrast, LI and LUE for the highest irrigation level increased by 10.59% and 5.23%, respectively. In the case of the interaction (plant density and irrigation level), the ADM under deficit irrigation and high-density combination increased by 7.69% compared to the control (farmers’ irrigation × sowing practices interaction effects). The LI and LUE also exhibited an increase in 1.63% and 6.34%, respectively. Notably, the LI effect of the middle and upper cotton canopy under film drip irrigation reached 70%. A lower irrigation level resulted in a higher percentage of LI in the lower canopy region. The leaf area index, light interception rate, and extinction coefficient escalated with the increase in plant density. Under deficit irrigation treatment, the LI of the 0–30 cm canopy in high plant density settings increased by 8.6% compared to the control (farmers’ irrigation × sowing practices interaction effects). In conclusion, deficit irrigation and increased plant density improved the interception of LI and LUE of cotton canopy. These findings may help the farmers to optimize their agricultural management strategies in water-deficient areas.

Verticillium wilt is one of the most crucial diseases caused by Verticillium dahliae that threatens the cotton industry. Statistical results showed that the return of cotton plants infected with V. dahliae to the field might be an essential cause of the continuous aggravation of cotton Verticillium wilt. The correlation among the cotton plants infected with V. dahliae returning to the field, the occurrence of Verticillium wilt, and the number of microsclerotia in rhizosphere soil need further investigation. A potted experiment was carried out to explore the effects of the direct return of cotton plants infected with Verticillium dahliae to the field on the subsequent growth and Verticillium wilt occurrence in cotton. As a risk response plan, we investigated the feasibility of returning dung-sand (i.e., insect excreta) to the field, the dung-sand was from the larvae of Protaetia brevitarsis (Coleoptera: Cetoniidea) that were fed with the V. dahliae–infected cotton plants. The results demonstrated that the return of the entire cotton plants to the field presented a promotional effect on the growth and development of cotton, whereas the return of a single root stubble or cotton stalks had an inhibitive effect. The return of cotton stalks and root stubble infected with V. dahliae increased the risk and degree of Verticillium wilt occurrence. The disease index of Verticillium wilt occurrence in cotton was positively correlated with the number of microsclerotia in the rhizosphere soil. The disease index increased by 20.00%, and the number of soil microsclerotia increased by 8.37 fold in the treatment of returning root stubble infected with V. dahliae to the field. No Verticillium wilt microsclerotia were detected in the feed prepared from cotton stalks and root stubble fermented for more than 5 days or in the transformed dung-sand. There was no risk of inoculation with Verticillium wilt microsclerotia when the dung-sand was returned to the field. The indirect return of cotton plants infected with V. dahliae to the field by microorganism–insect systems is worthy of further exploration plan of the green prevention and control for Verticillium wilt and the sustainable development of the cotton industry.

Global challenges such as climate change, ecological imbalance, and resource scarcity are closely related with land-use change. Arid land, which is 41% of the global land area, has fragile ecology and limited water resources. To ensure food security, ecological resilience, and sustainable use of land resources, there is a need for multi-scenario analysis of land-use change in arid regions. To carry this out, multiple spatial analysis techniques and land change indicators were used to analyze spatial land-use change in a typical inland river basin in arid Northwest China—the Tailan River Basin (TRB). Then, the PLUS model was used to analyze, in a certain time period (1980–2060), land-use change in the same basin. The scenarios used included the Natural Increase Scenario (NIS), Food Security Scenario (FSS), Economic Development Scenario (EDS), Water Protection Scenario (WPS), Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS), and Balanced Eco-economy Scenario (BES). The results show that for the period of 1980–2020, land-use change in the TRB was mainly driven by changes in cultivated land, grassland, forest land, and built-up land. For this period, there was a substantial increase in cultivated land (865.56 km²) and a significant decrease in forest land (197.44 km²) and grassland (773.55 km²) in the study area. There was a notable spatial shift in land use in the period of 1990–2010. The overall accuracy (OA) of the PLUS model was more than 90%, with a Kappa value of 85% and a Figure of Merit (FOM) of 0.18. The most pronounced expansion in cultivated land area in the 2020–2060 period was for the FSS (661.49 km²). This led to an increase in grain production and agricultural productivity in the region. The most significant increase in built-up area was under the EDS (61.7 km²), contributing to economic development and population growth. While the conversion of grassland area into other forms of land use was the smallest under the BES (606.08 km²), built-up area increased by 55.82 km². This presented an ideal scenario under which ecological conservation was in balance with economic development. This was the most sustainable land management strategy with a harmonized balance across humans and the ecology in the TRB study area. This strategy may provide policymakers with a realistic land-use option with the potential to offer an acceptable policy solution to land use.