Environmental managers and policymakers increasingly discuss trade-offs between ecosystem services (ESs). However, few studies have used nonlinear models to provide scenario-specific land-use planning. This study determined the effects of different future land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios on ESs in the Yili River Valley, China, and analyzed the trade-offs and synergistic response characteristics. We simulated land-use changes in the Yili River Valley during 2020–2030 under three different scenarios using a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model—business as usual (BAU), economic development (ED), and ecological conservation (EC). Subsequently, we evaluated the water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR), and nutrient export (NE) ESs by combining the PLUS and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) models, thus exploring multiple trade-offs among these four ESs at a regional scale. For the BAU scenario, there are some synergistic effects between WY and SR in the Yili River Valley, in addition to significant trade-off effects between CS and NE. For the ED scenario, the rapid expansion of cropland and constructed land is at the expense of forested grassland, leading to a significant decline in ESs. For the EC scenario, the model predicted that the cumulative regional net future carbon storage, cumulative water retention, and cumulative soil conservation would all increase due to ecological engineering and the revegetation of riparian zones and that formerly steep agricultural land can be effective in improving ESs. Meanwhile, the trade-off effect would be significantly weakened between CS and NE. These results can inform decision makers on specific sites where ecological engineering is implemented. Our findings can enhance stakeholders’ understanding of the interactions between ESs indicators in different scenarios.

The quantitative and spatial–temporal variations in the characteristics of ecosystem value can be helpful to improve environmental protection and climate adaptation measures and adjust the balance between economic development and the ecological environment. The arid and semi-arid regions of China are undergoing the effects of climate change across the entire northern hemisphere. Their ecological environments are fragile and in conflict with anthropogenic activities, which significantly altered more ecosystems services in these regions. Therefore, estimating the effects of anthropogenic activities on ecosystem services is important for formulating ecological policy and regional environmental mitigation plans of these regions. This study employed the model of ecosystem service value (ESV) assessment and the bivariate spatial autocorrelation method to reveal the spatiotemporal variations in the characteristics of ecosystem value in the arid and semi-arid ecological regions of China and its interaction with human activities. Results showed that (1) the total value of ES of the study area increased from USD 487,807 billion in 2000 to USD 67,831,150 billion 2020; (2) the ES value provided by forest land first increased by 5.60% from 2000 to 2020; (3) the ESV provided by grassland showed an overall decline over the 20 years. Food and raw material production showed the lowest ES value, and climate regulation and soil conservation decreased from 2000 to 2020; (4) the index of human footprint patches decreased from 45.80% in 2000 to 17.63% in 2020, while the high and very high human footprint index areas increased significantly, mainly due to the rapid urbanization and improvement of railway networks in these areas. Spatially, the regions with high human footprint were mostly dispersed in the northeastern of China such as Shanxi and Gansu, whereas the regions with a low human footprint remained mainly located in the central and southwestern parts of China; (5) significant spatial dependencies between changes in ESV and the human footprint index were recorded. Our study could provide a scientific basis for ecosystem functions regulation and land development security in arid and semi-arid ecological regions.