Developing accurate models is necessary to optimize the operation of heating systems. A large number of field measurements from monitored heat pumps have made it possible to evaluate different heat pump models and improve their accuracy. This study used measured data from a heating system consisting of three heat pumps to compare five regression and two artificial neural network (ANN) models. The models’ performance was compared to determine which model was suitable during the design and operation stage by calibrating them using data provided by the manufacturer and the measured data. A method to refine the ANN model was also presented. The results indicate that simple regression models are more suitable when only manufacturers’ data are available, while ANN models are more suited to utilize a large amount of measured data. The method to refine the ANN model is effective at increasing the accuracy of the model. The refined models have a relative root mean square error (RMSE) of less than 5%.

Optimizing the operation of ground source heat pumps requires simulation of both short-term and long-term response of the borehole heat exchanger. However, the current physical and neural network based models are not suited to handle the large range of time scales, especially for large borehole fields. In this study, we present a hybrid model for long-term simulation of BHE with high resolution in time. The model uses an analytical model with low time resolution to guide an artificial neural network model with high time resolution. We trained, tuned, and tested the hybrid model using measured data from a ground source heat pump in real operation. The performance of the hybrid model is compared with an analytical model, a calibrated analytical model, and three different types of neural network models. The hybrid model has a relative RMSE of 6% for the testing period compared to 22%, 14%, and 12% respectively for the analytical model, the calibrated analytical model, and the best of the three investigated neural network models. The hybrid model also has a reasonable computational time and was also found to be robust with regard to the model parameters used by the analytical model.

Planning the operation of large ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems requires accurate models of borehole heat exchangers (BHEs) that are not computationally intensive. In this paper, we propose parameter estimation using measured data as a method to improve the analytical models of BHE. The method was applied to a GSHP system operating for over 3 years. The deviation between modelled and measured load of the BHE reduced from 22% to 14%. Influence of the calibration data set was tested by changing time resolution and season of the calibration data. We concluded that the time resolution must be high enough to differentiate among the effects of different parameters and that different model parameters must be used for injection and extraction (seasons). The method was also applied to a GSHP that has been monitored for 10 years, which showed that accuracy of the model can be improved by annual updates of parameters.