The complexity of coseismic slip distributions influences the tsunami hazard posed by local and, to a certain extent, distant tsunami sources. Large slip concentrated in shallow patches was observed in recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, possibly due to dynamic amplification near the free surface, variable frictional conditions or other factors. We propose a method for incorporating enhanced shallow slip for subduction earthquakes while preventing systematic slip excess at shallow depths over one or more seismic cycles. The method uses the classic k⁻² stochastic slip distributions, augmented by shallow slip amplification. It is necessary for deep events with lower slip to occur more often than shallow ones with amplified slip to balance the long-term cumulative slip. We evaluate the impact of this approach on tsunami hazard in the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea adopting a realistic 3D geometry for three subduction zones, by using it to model ~ 150,000 earthquakes with \(M_{w}\) from 6.0 to 9.0. We combine earthquake rates, depth-dependent slip distributions, tsunami modeling, and epistemic uncertainty through an ensemble modeling technique. We found that the mean hazard curves obtained with our method show enhanced probabilities for larger inundation heights as compared to the curves derived from depth-independent slip distributions. Our approach is completely general and can be applied to any subduction zone in the world.

Over a period of less than a decade, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has become a well-established technology in seismology. For historical and practical reasons, DAS manufacturers usually provide instruments that natively record strain (rate) as the principal measurement. While at first glance strain recordings seem related to ground motion waveforms (displacement, velocity and acceleration), not all the seismological tools developed over the past century (e.g. magnitude estimation, seismic beamforming, etc.) can be readily applied to strain data. Notably, the directional sensitivity of DAS is more limited than conventional particle motion sensors, and DAS experiences an increased sensitivity to slow waves, often highly scattered by the subsurface structure and challenging to analyse. To address these issues, several strategies have been already proposed to convert strain rate measurements to particle motion. In this study, we focus on strategies based on a quantity we refer to as ‘deformation’. Deformation is defined as the change in length of the cable and is closely related to displacement, yet both quantities differ from one another: deformation is a relative displacement measurement along a curvilinear path. We show that if the geometry of the DAS deployment is made of sufficiently long rectilinear sections, deformation can be used to recover the displacement without the need of additional instruments. We validate this theoretical result using full-waveform simulations and by comparing, on a real data set, the seismic velocity recovered from DAS with that recorded by collocated seismometers. The limitations of this approach are discussed, and two applications are shown: enhancing direct P-wave arrivals and simplifying the magnitude estimation of seismic events. Converted displacement provides better sensitivity to high velocity phases, improves broadside response and permits the direct application of conventional seismological tools that are less effective when applied to strain (rate) data.

Low-frequency earthquakes are a particular class of slow earthquakes that provide a unique source of information on the physical processes along a subduction zone during the preparation of large earthquakes. Despite increasing detection of these events in recent years, their source mechanisms are still poorly characterised, and the relation between their magnitude and size remains controversial. Here, we present the source characterisation of more than 10,000 low-frequency earthquakes that occurred during tremor sequences in 2012–2016 along the Nankai subduction zone in western Shikoku, Japan. We show that the scaling of seismic moment versus corner frequency for these events is compatible with an inverse of the cube law, as widely observed for regular earthquakes. Their radiation, however, appears depleted in high-frequency content when compared to regular earthquakes. The displacement spectrum decays beyond the corner frequency with an omega-cube power law. Our result is consistent with shear rupture as the source mechanism for low-frequency earthquakes, and suggests a self-similar rupture process and constant stress drop. When investigating the dependence of the stress drop value on the rupture speed, we found that low-frequency earthquakes might propagate at lower rupture velocity than regular earthquakes, releasing smaller stress drop.

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) are nowadays contributing to seismic risk mitigation actions, both in terms of losses and societal resilience, by issuing an alert promptly after the earthquake origin and before the ground‐shaking impacts the target to be protected. In this work, we analyze the performance of network‐based and stand‐alone (on‐site) early warning systems during the 2016–2017 central Italy sequence, characterized by events with magnitude as large as 6.5. For the largest magnitude event, both systems predict well the ground shaking nearby the event source, with a rate of success in the 85%–90% range, within the potential earthquake damage zone. However, the lead time, that is, the time available for security actions, is significantly larger for the network‐based system. For the regional system, it increases to more than 10 s at 40 km from the event epicenter. The stand‐alone system performs better in the near‐source region, still showing a positive albeit small lead time ($<2s$). Far away from the source ($>60km$), the performances slightly degrade, mostly owing to the large uncertainty in the attenuation relationships. This study opens up the possibility for making an operational EEWS in Italy, based on the available acceleration networks, provided that the delay due to data telemetry has to be reduced.

In the past two decades, the central portion of Campi Flegrei caldera has experienced ground uplift up to 15 mm/month, with an increase of rate, magnitude and extent of the seismicity. In this work, we perform multi‐scale precise earthquake relocation of the 2014–2024 seismicity, mapping in detail activated fault zones. We relate the geometry, extent, and depth of these zones with up‐to‐date structural reconstructions of the caldera. The current seismicity is mainly driven by ground‐uplift‐induced stress concentration on pre‐existing, weaker fault zones, some of which identified for the first time. These structures are not only related to the inner caldera and dome resurgence but also to volcano‐tectonic events of the last 10 ka. The extent of imaged fault segments suggests they can accommodate ruptures up to a moment magnitude 5.1, significantly increasing seismic hazard in the area.

Campi Flegrei is a densely populated volcanic area in Italy. Its inner caldera periodically experiences uplift and subsidence, known as bradyseism, also accompanied by seismic activity. In the last decade, with uplift rates up to 2 cm/month, about nine-thousand earthquakes were recorded. Upon request of the local administration, the most updated data were collected and analyzed to evaluate the risk management strategy consisting of structural retrofitting according to the building code. Here it is shown that the reference moment magnitude is in the range \(\left({{\mathrm{4.4,5.1}}}\right)\), based on fault mapping, geomorphological inference, earthquake relocation, stress-drop analysis, and ground motion modelling. Earthquake forecasting enabled computing the exceedance probabilities of these magnitudes. Earthquake engineering showed that the minimum magnitudes expected to cause exceedance of design ground motion, are larger than the reference magnitudes. Finally, the risk reduction implied by the safety levels of new constructions was assessed for reinforced concrete buildings.