The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of climate change on water resources management and groundwater quantity and quality in the coastal agricultural Almyros Basin, in Greece. Intensive groundwater abstractions for irrigation and nitrogen fertilization for crop production maximization, have caused a large water deficit, nitrate pollution, as well as seawater intrusion in the Almyros aquifer system. Multi-model climate projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) from the Med-CORDEX database for precipitation and temperature have been used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the study area. The multi-model climate projections have been bias-corrected with Delta, Delta change of Mean and Variance, Quantile Delta Change, Quantile Empirical Mapping, and Quantile Gamma Mapping methods, and statistically tested to find the best GCM/RCM multi-model ensemble. Simulation of coastal water resources has been performed using an Integrated Modelling System (IMS) that contains connected models of surface hydrology (UTHBAL), groundwater hydrology (MODFLOW), nitrate leaching/crop growth (REPIC), nitrate pollution (MT3DMS), and seawater intrusion (SEAWAT). The results indicate that the best climate multi-model ensemble consists of three (3) climate models for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using the Quantile Empirical Mapping bias-correction method. The IMS was applied for historical and future periods with observed and simulated meteorological inputs (e.g. precipitation and temperature) and various irrigation and agronomic scenarios and water storage works development (i.e. reservoirs). The results indicate that at least deficit irrigation and deficit irrigation along with rain-fed cultivation schemes, combined with or without the development and operation of reservoirs, should be applied to overcome the degradation of groundwater quality and quantity in the study basin. Based on the findings of this work, the water resources management should be adaptive to tackle the water resources problems of the Almyros Basin.

This study presents an integrated modeling system for the evaluation of the quantity and quality of water resources of coastal agricultural watersheds. The modeling system consists of coupled and interrelated models, including (i) a surface hydrology model (UTHBAL), (ii) a groundwater hydrology model (MODFLOW), (iii) a crop growth/nitrate leaching model (REPIC, an R-ArcGIS-based EPIC model), (iv) a groundwater contaminant transport model (MT3DMS), and (v) a groundwater seawater intrusion model (SEAWAT). The efficacy of the modeling system to simulate the quantity and quality of water resources has been applied to the Almyros basin in Thessaly, Greece. It is a coastal agricultural basin with irrigated and intensified agriculture facing serious groundwater problems, such as groundwater depletion, nitrate pollution, and seawater intrusion. Irrigation demands were estimated for the main crops cultivated in the area, based on precipitation and temperature from regional weather stations. The models have been calibrated and validated against time-series of observed crop yields, groundwater table observations, and observed concentrations of nitrates and chlorides. The results indicate that the modeling system simulates the water resources quantity and quality with increased accuracy. The proposed modeling system could be used as a tool for the simulation of water resources management and climate change scenarios.

The study examines the impacts of climate change and sea level rise on coastal aquifers, focusing on the influence of the components of the water cycle on seawater intrusion, and the evolution of the phenomenon in the future. The simulation of coastal water resources was performed using an integrated modeling system (IMS), designed for agricultural coastal watersheds, which consists of inter-connected models of surface hydrology (UTHBAL), groundwater hydrology (MODFLOW), and seawater intrusion (SEAWAT). Climatic models for the adverse impact scenario (RCP8.5) and the medium impact scenario (RCP4.5) of climate change were used. Transient boundary head conditions were set to the coastal boundary, to dynamically represent the rise in sea level due to climate change. The response of groundwater in the coastal Almyros Basin, located in central Greece, was simulated from 1991 to 2100. The findings indicate that seawater intrusion will be advanced in the future, in both climate change scenarios. The models show varying patterns in groundwater recharge, with varying uncertainty projected into the future, and sensitivity to time in the fluctuation of the components of the water cycle.

Irrigation and nitrate fertilization scenarios were combined and simulated for crop water irrigation demands and nitrogen applications based on experiments on crop cultivation practices. Two irrigation practices (deficit irrigation and rainfed conditions) were applied to the main crop types of the Almyros Basin, a coastal basin located in Thessaly, Greece. The Almyros groundwater system suffers from progressive water balance deficit, nitrate contamination and seawater intrusion due to groundwater abstractions for agricultural irrigation to cover crop water demands in the dry season. The impacts of the irrigation and nitrate fertilization scenarios on groundwater resources quantity and quality were simulated using an Integrated Modelling System consisting of models of surface hydrology (UTHBAL), groundwater hydrology (MODFLOW), crop growth/nitrate leaching (REPIC), contaminant transport (MT3DMS), and seawater intrusion (SEAWAT), for the historical period of 1991–2018. The results of the scenarios were evaluated with the indicators of Crop Water Productivity (CWP) for crop yields and irrigation water, Partial Factor Productivity (PFP) for Nitrogen Use Efficiency, and Economic Water Productivity (EWP) for the gross profits of the irrigation water.

The scope of this study is to assess the effects of agronomic and water resources management scenarios on groundwater balance, seawater intrusion, and nitrate pollution and the comparison of the developed scenarios relative to the current crop production and water management regime in the coastal agricultural Almyros basin in the Thessaly region, Greece. Agronomic and water resources scenarios have been simulated and analyzed for a period of 28 years, from 1991 to 2018. The analysis has been conducted with the use of an Integrated Modeling System for agricultural coastal watersheds, which consists of coupled and interlinked simulation models of surface water hydrology (UTHBAL), reservoir operation (UTHRL), agronomic/nitrate leaching model (REPIC), and groundwater models for the simulation of groundwater flow (MODFLOW) and contaminant transport of nitrates (MT3DMS) and chlorides (SEAWAT). The pressure on water resources has been estimated with the Water Exploitation Index (WEI+) and the reservoirs’ operation with the Reliability index to cover the water demands. The indices of Crop Water Productivity, Nitrogen Use Efficiency, and Economic Water Productivity have been used to quantify the benefits and the feasibility of the alternative scenarios. The best results for the sustainability of water resources are achieved under the deficit irrigation and rain-fed scenario, while the best results for water resources and the local economy are achieved under deficit irrigation and reduced fertilization scenario.

Groundwater depletion poses a major threat to global groundwater resources with increasing trends due to natural and anthropogenic activities. This study presents a surface-groundwater framework for water resources modelling of ill-posed problems in hydrogeologically data-scarce areas. The proposed framework is based on the application of a conceptual water balance model and composed of surface hydrological (UTHBAL) and groundwater flow simulation with the integration of a Newton formulation of the MODFLOW-2005 code (MODFLOW-NWT) and PEST suite modules. The groundwater simulation includes a preprocessor tool for automated calibration and a post-processor tool for automated validation. The methodology was applied to a rural region of Central Greece, Lake Karla Basin, which is degraded due to groundwater resources overexploitation to cover irrigation water demands. The aquifer is modelled focusing on a precise simulation–validation procedure of the conceptual model. The groundwater model was calibrated with the calibration preprocessor tool for spatially distributed hydraulic conductivity with the pilot points method. The calibration process achieved satisfactory results as validated by the post-process analysis of observed and simulated water levels. The findings for the groundwater budget indicate that the groundwater system is still under intense pressure even though farming activity in recent years has turned to less water-intensive crops. HIGHLIGHT My research deals with the pilot points method on groundwater modelling in an area with scarce hydrogeologic data.