The clinical diagnosis of new-onset type 1 diabetes has, for many years, been considered relatively straightforward. Recently, however, there is increasing awareness that within this single clinical phenotype exists considerable heterogeneity: disease onset spans the complete age range; genetic susceptibility is complex; rates of progression differ markedly, as does insulin secretory capacity; and complication rates, glycemic control, and therapeutic intervention efficacy vary widely. Mechanistic and immunopathological studies typically show considerable patchiness across subjects, undermining conclusions regarding disease pathways. Without better understanding, type 1 diabetes heterogeneity represents a major barrier both to deciphering pathogenesis and to the translational effort of designing, conducting, and interpreting clinical trials of disease-modifying agents. This realization comes during a period of unprecedented change in clinical medicine, with increasing emphasis on greater individualization and precision. For complex disorders such as type 1 diabetes, the option of maintaining the “single disease” approach appears untenable, as does the notion of individualizing each single patient’s care, obliging us to conceptualize type 1 diabetes less in terms of phenotypes (observable characteristics) and more in terms of disease endotypes (underlying biological mechanisms). Here, we provide our view on an approach to dissect heterogeneity in type 1 diabetes. Using lessons from other diseases and the data gathered to date, we aim to delineate a roadmap through which the field can incorporate the endotype concept into laboratory and clinical practice. We predict that such an effort will accelerate the implementation of precision medicine and has the potential for impact on our approach to translational research, trial design, and clinical management.

Given the proven benefits of screening to reduce diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) likelihood at the time of stage 3 type 1 diabetes diagnosis, and emerging availability of therapy to delay disease progression, type 1 diabetes screening programs are being increasingly emphasized. Once broadly implemented, screening initiatives will identify significant numbers of islet autoantibody–positive (IAb+) children and adults who are at risk for (confirmed single IAb+) or living with (multiple IAb+) early-stage (stage 1 and stage 2) type 1 diabetes. These individuals will need monitoring for disease progression; much of this care will happen in nonspecialized settings. To inform this monitoring, JDRF, in conjunction with international experts and societies, developed consensus guidance. Broad advice from this guidance includes the following: 1) partnerships should be fostered between endocrinologists and primary care providers to care for people who are IAb+; 2) when people who are IAb+ are initially identified, there is a need for confirmation using a second sample; 3) single IAb+ individuals are at lower risk of progression than multiple IAb+ individuals; 4) individuals with early-stage type 1 diabetes should have periodic medical monitoring, including regular assessments of glucose levels, regular education about symptoms of diabetes and DKA, and psychosocial support; 5) interested people with stage 2 type 1 diabetes should be offered trial participation or approved therapies; and 6) all health professionals involved in monitoring and care of individuals with type 1 diabetes have a responsibility to provide education. The guidance also emphasizes significant unmet needs for further research on early-stage type 1 diabetes to increase the rigor of future recommendations and inform clinical care.

Introduction The POInT study, an investigator initiated, randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, multicentre primary prevention trial is conducted to determine whether daily administration of oral insulin, from age 4.0 months to 7.0 months until age 36.0 months to children with elevated genetic risk for type 1 diabetes, reduces the incidence of beta-cell autoantibodies and diabetes. Methods and analysis Infants aged 4.0 to 7.0 months from Germany, Poland, Belgium, UK and Sweden are eligible if they have a >10.0% expected risk for developing multiple beta-cell autoantibodies as determined by genetic risk score or family history and human leucocyte antigen genotype. Infants are randomised 1:1 to daily oral insulin (7.5 mg for 2 months, 22.5 mg for 2 months, 67.5 mg until age 36.0 months) or placebo, and followed for a maximum of 7 years. Treatment and follow-up is stopped if a child develops diabetes. The primary outcome is the development of persistent confirmed multiple beta-cell autoantibodies or diabetes. Other outcomes are: (1) Any persistent confirmed beta-cell autoantibody (glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA), IA-2A, autoantibodies to insulin (IAA) and zinc transporter 8 or tetraspanin 7), or diabetes, (2) Persistent confirmed IAA, (3) Persistent confirmed GADA and (4) Abnormal glucose tolerance or diabetes. Ethics and dissemination The study is approved by the ethical committees of all participating clinical sites. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations and will be openly shared after completion of the trial. Trial registration number NCT03364868.

Islet autoantibodies are key markers for the diagnosis of type 1 diabetes. Since their discovery, they have also been recognized for their potential to identify at-risk individuals prior to symptoms. To date, risk prediction using autoantibodies has been based on autoantibody number; it has been robustly shown that nearly all multiple-autoantibody-positive individuals will progress to clinical disease. However, longitudinal studies have demonstrated that the rate of progression among multiple-autoantibody-positive individuals is highly heterogenous. Accurate prediction of the most rapidly progressing individuals is crucial for efficient and informative clinical trials and for identification of candidates most likely to benefit from disease modification. This is increasingly relevant with the recent success in delaying clinical disease in presymptomatic subjects using immunotherapy, and as the field moves toward population-based screening. There have been many studies investigating islet autoantibody characteristics for their predictive potential, beyond a simple categorical count. Predictive features that have emerged include molecular specifics, such as epitope targets and affinity; longitudinal patterns, such as changes in titer and autoantibody reversion; and sequence-dependent risk profiles specific to the autoantibody and the subject’s age. These insights are the outworking of decades of prospective cohort studies and international assay standardization efforts and will contribute to the granularity needed for more sensitive and specific preclinical staging. The aim of this review is to identify the dynamic and nuanced manifestations of autoantibodies in type 1 diabetes, and to highlight how these autoantibody features have the potential to improve study design of trials aiming to predict and prevent disease.

Clinical researchers use disease progression models to understand patient status and characterize progression patterns from longitudinal health records. One approach for disease progression modeling is to describe patient status using a small number of states that represent distinctive distributions over a set of observed measures. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and its variants are a class of models that both discover these states and make inferences of health states for patients. Despite the advantages of using the algorithms for discovering interesting patterns, it still remains challenging for medical experts to interpret model outputs, understand complex modeling parameters, and clinically make sense of the patterns. To tackle these problems, we conducted a design study with clinical scientists, statisticians, and visualization experts, with the goal to investigate disease progression pathways of chronic diseases, namely type 1 diabetes (T1D), Huntington's disease, Parkinson's disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). As a result, we introduce DPVis which seamlessly integrates model parameters and outcomes of HMMs into interpretable and interactive visualizations. In this study, we demonstrate that DPVis is successful in evaluating disease progression models, visually summarizing disease states, interactively exploring disease progression patterns, and building, analyzing, and comparing clinically relevant patient subgroups.

Given the proven benefits of screening to reduce diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) likelihood at the time of stage 3 type 1 diabetes diagnosis, and emerging availability of therapy to delay disease progression, type 1 diabetes screening programmes are being increasingly emphasised. Once broadly implemented, screening initiatives will identify significant numbers of islet autoantibody-positive (IAb⁺) children and adults who are at risk of (confirmed single IAb⁺) or living with (multiple IAb⁺) early-stage (stage 1 and stage 2) type 1 diabetes. These individuals will need monitoring for disease progression; much of this care will happen in non-specialised settings. To inform this monitoring, JDRF in conjunction with international experts and societies developed consensus guidance. Broad advice from this guidance includes the following: (1) partnerships should be fostered between endocrinologists and primary-care providers to care for people who are IAb⁺; (2) when people who are IAb⁺ are initially identified there is a need for confirmation using a second sample; (3) single IAb⁺ individuals are at lower risk of progression than multiple IAb⁺ individuals; (4) individuals with early-stage type 1 diabetes should have periodic medical monitoring, including regular assessments of glucose levels, regular education about symptoms of diabetes and DKA, and psychosocial support; (5) interested people with stage 2 type 1 diabetes should be offered trial participation or approved therapies; and (6) all health professionals involved in monitoring and care of individuals with type 1 diabetes have a responsibility to provide education. The guidance also emphasises significant unmet needs for further research on early-stage type 1 diabetes to increase the rigour of future recommendations and inform clinical care. Graphical Abstract