José Francisco León-Cruz

Dr. José Francisco León-Cruz

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

10Years (2017-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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5 May 2023 in International Journal of Climatology
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
JLJosé Francisco León-Cruz
José Francisco León-Cruz
ECErnesto Caetano
Ernesto Caetano
Jorge Cortés-RamosJorge Cortés-Ramos
Jorge Cortés-Ramos
Christian DominguezChristian Dominguez
Christian Dominguez
JMJuan Matias Méndez‐Pérez
Juan Matias Méndez‐Pérez
Thunderstorm and hailstorm environments from 1981 to 2018 are analysed using the proximity soundings approach based on the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Given the nature of the severe weather dataset, four proximity soundings 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 local time were retrieved per day with hail activity or thunderstorms. After quality control, a total of 30,760 vertical profiles were used and grouped seasonally and spatially to consider the local variation of the convective environments. Diverse instability, kinematic, and composite parameters were calculated to characterize the environments for these two convective hazards. The results indicate differences mainly modulated by orographic features, continentality, regional climate, and general synoptic characteristics. Higher instability environments of thunderstorms and hailstorms are observed in the subregions near moisture sources such as oceans, principally during summer and autumn when tropical activity occurs. High wind shear environments are concentrated during winter and spring, mainly in central and northern regions of the country, associated with the passage of frontal systems. The covariates are reasonably accurate at predicting severe weather, but their prediction skill decreases during the warm season when severe weather is more common in Mexico. Increased knowledge of severe weather and associated convective hazards will improve weather forecasting and may be helpful in disaster risk reduction due to meteorological hazards in Mexico.

23 March 2021 in Remote Sensing
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
JLJosé Francisco León-Cruz
José Francisco León-Cruz
CHCintia Carbajal Carbajal Henken
Cintia Carbajal Carbajal Henken
JCJosé Noel Carbajal-Pérez
José Noel Carbajal-Pérez
JFJürgen Fischer
Jürgen Fischer
Complex terrain features—in particular, environmental conditions, high population density and potential socio-economic damage—make the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) of particular interest regarding the study of deep convection and related severe weather. In this research, 10 years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud observations are combined with Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) rainfall data to characterize the spatio-temporal distribution of deep convective clouds (DCCs) and their relationship to extreme precipitation. From monthly distributions, wet and dry phases are identified for cloud fraction, deep convective cloud frequency and convective precipitation. For both DCC and extreme precipitation events, the highest frequencies align just over the higher elevations of the TMVB. A clear relationship between DCCs and terrain features, indicating the important role of orography in the development of convective systems, is noticed. For three sub-regions, the observed distributions of deep convective cloud and extreme precipitation events are assessed in more detail. Each sub-region exhibits different local conditions, including terrain features, and are known to be influenced differently by emerging moisture fluxes from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean. The observed distinct spatio-temporal variabilities provide the first insights into the physical processes that control the convective development in the study area. A signal of the midsummer drought in Mexico (i.e., “canícula”) is recognized using MODIS monthly mean cloud observations.

8 July 2025 in Natural Hazards
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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JLJosé Francisco León-Cruz
José Francisco León-Cruz
JFJosé F.
José F.
CNChristoph Neger
Christoph Neger
Stefan GösslingStefan Gössling
Stefan Gössling
With mounting evidence of extreme weather events, it is increasingly important to understand the risks that thunderstorms, extreme precipitation, and wildfires pose to tourism. This study investigates the past occurrence of these phenomena in Europe, analyses recent trends, and evaluates them in relation to the dependency on tourism. The Tourism Exposure Index is developed to assess these risks, comprising two sub-indices: the Hazard Index and the Tourism Dependency Index. Results reveal a spatial concentration of regions with high/very-high tourism exposure, particularly in southern Europe and around the Mediterranean Sea. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the spatial distribution of weather extremes with highly disruptive potential. It is concluded that at-risk regions should develop weather hazard adaptation plans for tourism.

31 March 2022 in Climate Research
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
JLJosé Francisco León-Cruz
José Francisco León-Cruz
LPLf Pineda-Martínez
Lf Pineda-Martínez
NCN Carbajal
N Carbajal
Tornadoes are extreme meteorological phenomena that can produce significant damage. The Mexican territory is prone to tornadogenesis; however, these phenomena are poorly studied in the country, and several characteristics of their behavior are unknown. We analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of tornadoes and waterspouts in Mexico (2000-2020) and compared them with potentially severe convective environments. The updated climatology consists of 378 tornado and 99 waterspout reports and is the product of previous research and recent documentation obtained from official and non-official sources. Given the significant influence of population density on the distribution of tornado reports and the lack of meteorological instrumentation for severe weather monitoring, we used the ERA5 dataset to complement the documentary data by computing potentially severe convective environments. The results show an increasing trend in tornado reports, from an annual average of 12 (2000-2012) to 44 (2015-2020). Tornadoes are mainly documented along the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt in central Mexico, while waterspouts are reported in the central and southern portions of the Pacific Ocean and the Yucatán Peninsula. The tornado season spans from May through August, while waterspouts are common during June. Tornadic activity is most frequent between 15:00 and 21:00 h local time (20:00-02:00 h UTC). The results obtained from the reanalysis data indicate favorable conditions for severe storm development in northeastern and northwestern Mexico during late spring and summer. These regions coincide with those where significant tornadoes and supercell storms have been previously documented. The computed covariates based on convective available potential energy and wind shear allowed the identification of regions vulnerable to the impact of diverse severe storm manifestations (e.g. tornadoes) and the coverage of areas without documentary information.

9 January 2019 in Advances in Meteorology
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
JCJosé Noel Carbajal-Pérez
José Noel Carbajal-Pérez
JLJosé Francisco León-Cruz
José Francisco León-Cruz
Luis F Pineda-MartinezLuis F Pineda-Martinez
Luis F Pineda-Martinez
JTjose tuxpan
jose tuxpan
JGJuan H. Gaviño-Rodríguez
Juan H. Gaviño-Rodríguez
Tornadoes are violent and destructive natural phenomena that occur on a local scale in most regions around the world. Severe storms occasionally lead to the formation of mesocyclones, whose direction or sense of rotation is often determined by the Coriolis force, among other factors. In the Northern Hemisphere, more than 99% of all tornadoes rotate anticlockwise. The present research shows that, in topographically complex regions, tornadoes have a different probability of rotating clockwise or anticlockwise. Our ongoing research programme on tornadoes in Mexico has shown that the number of tornadoes is significantly higher than previously thought. About 40% of all tornadoes occur in the complex topographic region of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Data collected (from Internet videos) on the rotation of tornadoes formed in this region showed that about 50% of them rotated in a clockwise direction, contradicting tornado statistics for most of North America. Time series of the helicity parameter showed that tornadoes formed in topographically complex areas exhibited different behaviours compared to those formed in plains that are related with supercell systems.

1 May 2019 in Natural Hazards
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
PDF file
JLJosé Francisco León-Cruz
José Francisco León-Cruz
JCJosé Noel Carbajal-Pérez
José Noel Carbajal-Pérez
Luis F Pineda-MartinezLuis F Pineda-Martinez
Luis F Pineda-Martinez