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Dr. Darren Shannon
Department of Accounting and Finance, Kemmy Business School, University of Limerick, Limerick V94 T9PX, Ireland

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0 Autonomous Vehicles
0 Insurance
0 Risk Modelling
0 Emerging risks
0 Motor vehicle collision econometrics

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Insurance
Autonomous Vehicles
Emerging risks
Motor vehicle collision econometrics

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Journal article
Published: 13 July 2021 in Technology in Society
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On the path to high-level vehicle automation, the degree of surveillance both inside and outside the car increases significantly. Consequently, ethical considerations are becoming central to questions around surveillance regimes and data privacy implicit in level 3 and 4 vehicle automation. In this paper, we focus on outputs from the EU Horizon 2020 project Vision Inspired Driver Assistance Systems (VI-DAS). In particular, we assess the VI-DAS 720-degree observation technology, critical to ensuring a safe Human Machine Interaction (HMI), from multiple theoretical perspectives to contribute to a better understanding of the phenomena of privacy. As a synonym for surveillance, we started our evaluation with Bentham's ideation of the panopticon. From there, it is a relatively short step to radical Foucauldian critiques that offered more dystopian technologies of power. However, both theorems demonstrate a limited understanding of the issue of data privacy in the context of safe transportation along the evolution of highly automated vehicles. Thus, to allow the debate to move beyond more binary discussions on privacy versus control/power and to a certain degree escape the shadow of the panopticon, we applied the Nissenbaum four theses framework of Contextual Integrity (CI). Her decision heuristic allowed us to introduce structure and a degree of precision in our thinking on the matter of privacy that represents a step forward to phenomena of privacy in a specific context. Our approach concludes that the VI-DAS 720-degree observation technology can respect the user's privacy through an appropriate flow of personal information. However, the flows of personal data must be strongly regulated to ensure that data is seen as a value in terms of a commodity to protect human life and not seen as an asset that needs to be turned into value in terms of capital or the facilitation of asymmetric power-relations.

ACS Style

Tim Jannusch; Florian David-Spickermann; Darren Shannon; Juliane Ressel; Michaele Völler; Finbarr Murphy; Irini Furxhi; Martin Cunneen; Martin Mullins. Surveillance and privacy – Beyond the panopticon. An exploration of 720-degree observation in level 3 and 4 vehicle automation. Technology in Society 2021, 66, 101667 .

AMA Style

Tim Jannusch, Florian David-Spickermann, Darren Shannon, Juliane Ressel, Michaele Völler, Finbarr Murphy, Irini Furxhi, Martin Cunneen, Martin Mullins. Surveillance and privacy – Beyond the panopticon. An exploration of 720-degree observation in level 3 and 4 vehicle automation. Technology in Society. 2021; 66 ():101667.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tim Jannusch; Florian David-Spickermann; Darren Shannon; Juliane Ressel; Michaele Völler; Finbarr Murphy; Irini Furxhi; Martin Cunneen; Martin Mullins. 2021. "Surveillance and privacy – Beyond the panopticon. An exploration of 720-degree observation in level 3 and 4 vehicle automation." Technology in Society 66, no. : 101667.

Journal article
Published: 07 July 2021 in Array
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From February 2020, both urban and rural Ireland witnessed the rapid proliferation of the COVID-19 disease throughout its counties. During this period, the national COVID-19 responses included stay-at-home directives issued by the state, subject to varying levels of enforcement. In this paper, we present a new method to assess and rank the causes of Ireland COVID-19 deaths as it relates to mobility activities within each county provided by Google while taking into consideration the epidemiological confirmed positive cases reported per county. We used a network structure and rank propagation modelling approach using Personalised PageRank to reveal the importance of each mobility category linked to cases and deaths. Then a novel feature-selection method using relative prominent factors finds important features related to each county's death. Finally, we clustered the counties based on features selected with the network results using a customised network clustering algorithm for the research problem. Our analysis reveals that the most important mobility trend categories that exhibit the strongest association to COVID-19 cases and deaths include retail and recreation and workplaces. This is the first time a network structure and rank propagation modelling approach has been used to link COVID-19 data to mobility patterns. The infection determinants landscape illustrated by the network results aligns soundly with county socio-economic and demographic features. The novel feature selection and clustering method presented clusters useful to policymakers, managers of the health sector, politicians and even sociologists. Finally, each county has a different impact on the national total.

ACS Style

Furxhi Irini; Arash Negahdari Kia; Darren Shannon; Tim Jannusch; Finbarr Murphy; Barry Sheehan. Associations between mobility patterns and COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic: A network structure and rank propagation modelling approach. Array 2021, 11, 100075 .

AMA Style

Furxhi Irini, Arash Negahdari Kia, Darren Shannon, Tim Jannusch, Finbarr Murphy, Barry Sheehan. Associations between mobility patterns and COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic: A network structure and rank propagation modelling approach. Array. 2021; 11 ():100075.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Furxhi Irini; Arash Negahdari Kia; Darren Shannon; Tim Jannusch; Finbarr Murphy; Barry Sheehan. 2021. "Associations between mobility patterns and COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic: A network structure and rank propagation modelling approach." Array 11, no. : 100075.

Journal article
Published: 06 July 2021 in Technology in Society
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We are facing an increase in the emergence of distracting activities while driving. This is especially the case for young people who, more than other age groups, employ their cars as a place of personal fulfilment. This study proposes an interdisciplinary safe-by-design (SbD) heuristic to address this emerging risk. It harnesses a German version of the Behaviour of Young Novice Driver Scale (BYNDS) to gather representative information about young people's distracting activities. This information is then used to address to limitations of Driver Monitoring Systems (DMS) and posit safety measures in the context of young driver distraction. Our novel approach reveals three recommendations that should guide the employment of DMS in future generations of cars. We argue that the sole use of DMS Type 1 (i.e. vehicle motion data) is not sufficient to cope with the complex range of distracting activities that occur inside the car. We suggest designers and technologists employ DMS Type 2 (i.e. cameras and acoustic sensors) as this makes it possible to capture rich information about humans, objects and their interaction. In light of concerns about data privacy, policymakers must act to regulate the ethical use of data from the inside of the car and to find the necessary trade-off between data privacy and the unnecessary attrition of young human lives. This research provides a reasonable foundation for this discussion.

ACS Style

Tim Jannusch; Darren Shannon; Michaele Völler; Finbarr Murphy; Martin Mullins. Cars and distraction: How to address the limits of Driver Monitoring Systems and improve safety benefits using evidence from German young drivers. Technology in Society 2021, 66, 101628 .

AMA Style

Tim Jannusch, Darren Shannon, Michaele Völler, Finbarr Murphy, Martin Mullins. Cars and distraction: How to address the limits of Driver Monitoring Systems and improve safety benefits using evidence from German young drivers. Technology in Society. 2021; 66 ():101628.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tim Jannusch; Darren Shannon; Michaele Völler; Finbarr Murphy; Martin Mullins. 2021. "Cars and distraction: How to address the limits of Driver Monitoring Systems and improve safety benefits using evidence from German young drivers." Technology in Society 66, no. : 101628.

Journal article
Published: 17 June 2021 in Accident Analysis & Prevention
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We present an alternative approach to the forecasting of motor vehicle collision rates. We adopt an oft-used tool in mathematical finance, the Heston Stochastic Volatility model, to forecast the short-term and long-term evolution of motor vehicle collision rates. We incorporate a number of extensions to the Heston model to make it fit for modelling motor vehicle collision rates. We incorporate the temporally-unstable and non-deterministic nature of collision rate fluctuations, and introduce a parameter to account for periods of accelerated safety. We also adjust estimates to account for the seasonality of collision patterns. Using these parameters, we perform a short-term forecast of collision rates and explore a number of plausible scenarios using long-term forecasts. The short-term forecast shows a close affinity with realised rates (over 95% accuracy), and outperforms forecasting models currently used in road safety research (Vasicek, SARIMA, SARIMA-GARCH). The long-term scenarios suggest that modest targets to reduce collision rates (1.83% annually) and targets to reduce the fluctuations of month-to-month collision rates (by half) could have significant benefits for road safety. The median forecast in this scenario suggests a 50% fall in collision rates, with 75% of simulations suggesting that an effective change in collision rates is observed before 2044. The main benefit the model provides is eschewing the necessity for setting unreasonable safety targets that are often missed. Instead, the model presents the effects that modest and achievable targets can have on road safety over the long run, while incorporating random variability. Examining the parameters that underlie expected collision rates will aid policymakers in determining the effectiveness of implemented policies.

ACS Style

Darren Shannon; Grigorios Fountas. Extending the Heston model to forecast motor vehicle collision rates. Accident Analysis & Prevention 2021, 159, 106250 .

AMA Style

Darren Shannon, Grigorios Fountas. Extending the Heston model to forecast motor vehicle collision rates. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2021; 159 ():106250.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Darren Shannon; Grigorios Fountas. 2021. "Extending the Heston model to forecast motor vehicle collision rates." Accident Analysis & Prevention 159, no. : 106250.

Feature article
Published: 09 March 2021 in Risk Management and Insurance Review
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The introduction of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) to the road transport ecosystem will change the manner of collisions. CAVs are expected to optimize the safety of road users and the wider environment, while alleviating traffic congestion and maximizing occupant comfort. The net result is a reduction in the frequency of motor vehicle collisions, and a reduction in the number of injuries currently seen as “preventable.” A changing risk ecosystem will introduce new challenges and opportunities for primary insurers. Prior studies have highlighted the economic benefit provided by reductions in the frequency of hazardous events. This economic benefit, however, will be offset by the economic detriment incurred by emerging risks and the increased scrutiny placed on existing risks. We posit four plausible scenarios detailing how an introduction of these technologies could result in a larger relative rate of injury claims currently characterized as tail‐risk events. In such a scenario, the culmination of these losses will present as a second “hump” in actuarial loss models. We discuss how CAV risk factors and traffic dynamics may combine to make a second “hump” a plausible reality, and discuss a number of opportunities that may arise for primary insurers from a changing road environment.

ACS Style

Darren Shannon; Tim Jannusch; Florian David‐Spickermann; Martin Mullins; Martin Cunneen; Finbarr Murphy. Connected and autonomous vehicle injury loss events: Potential risk and actuarial considerations for primary insurers. Risk Management and Insurance Review 2021, 24, 5 -35.

AMA Style

Darren Shannon, Tim Jannusch, Florian David‐Spickermann, Martin Mullins, Martin Cunneen, Finbarr Murphy. Connected and autonomous vehicle injury loss events: Potential risk and actuarial considerations for primary insurers. Risk Management and Insurance Review. 2021; 24 (1):5-35.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Darren Shannon; Tim Jannusch; Florian David‐Spickermann; Martin Mullins; Martin Cunneen; Finbarr Murphy. 2021. "Connected and autonomous vehicle injury loss events: Potential risk and actuarial considerations for primary insurers." Risk Management and Insurance Review 24, no. 1: 5-35.

Journal article
Published: 18 February 2021 in Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
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The closure of borders and traditional commerce due to the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have a lasting financial impact. We determine whether the growth in COVID-19 affected index prices by examining equity markets in five regional epicentres, along with a ‘global’ index. We also investigate the impact of COVID-19 after controlling for investor sentiment, credit risk, liquidity risk, safe-haven asset demand and the price of oil. Despite controlling for these traditional market drivers, the daily totals of COVID-19 cases nevertheless explained index price changes in Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States. Similar results were not observed in China, the origin of the virus, nor in the ‘global’ index (MSCI World). Our results suggest that early interventions (China) and the spatiotemporal nature of pandemic epicentres (World) should be considered by governments, regulators and relevant stakeholders in the event of future COVID-19 ‘waves’ or further extreme societal disruptions.

ACS Style

Niall O’Donnell; Darren Shannon; Barry Sheehan. Immune or at-risk? Stock markets and the significance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance 2021, 30, 100477 -100477.

AMA Style

Niall O’Donnell, Darren Shannon, Barry Sheehan. Immune or at-risk? Stock markets and the significance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance. 2021; 30 ():100477-100477.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Niall O’Donnell; Darren Shannon; Barry Sheehan. 2021. "Immune or at-risk? Stock markets and the significance of the COVID-19 pandemic." Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance 30, no. : 100477-100477.

Journal article
Published: 06 February 2021 in Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour
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Road traffic collisions are the leading cause of death for those between the ages of 15–29, according to the World Health Organisation. This study investigates one of the primary reasons for the high fatality rate amongst Young Novice Drivers (YNDs) – their use of smartphones while driving. We gathered responses from a representative sample of YNDs on their behaviour while driving using an updated version of the ‘Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale’. Survey responses totalled 700 YNDs situated throughout Germany. From these responses, we examined the prevalence of certain driving behaviours that are described as ‘distracting’ and compared these driving behaviours to the respondents’ use of specific smartphone features. The responses report that music-related activities (e.g. changing music on a smartphone) are most common amongst YNDs. Speaking on the phone is seldom-reported, although more males than females indicated engagement in this behaviour. We further carried out a correlation analysis and correspondence analysis. On that basis we found that those who report speaking on a smartphone are significantly more likely to engage in driving behaviours with potentially fatal consequences, such as speeding and driving while impaired by prohibited substances (drugs, alcohol). We propose that the results could be used by policymakers for public information implications and to tailor financial penalties for those engaging in smartphone behaviours that are linked to harmful driving behaviours. In addition, our findings can also be used in a Usage-based Insurance (UBI) context to financially incentivise safer driving.

ACS Style

Tim Jannusch; Darren Shannon; Michaele Völler; Finbarr Murphy; Martin Mullins. Smartphone Use While Driving: An Investigation of Young Novice Driver (YND) Behaviour. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour 2021, 77, 209 -220.

AMA Style

Tim Jannusch, Darren Shannon, Michaele Völler, Finbarr Murphy, Martin Mullins. Smartphone Use While Driving: An Investigation of Young Novice Driver (YND) Behaviour. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. 2021; 77 ():209-220.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tim Jannusch; Darren Shannon; Michaele Völler; Finbarr Murphy; Martin Mullins. 2021. "Smartphone Use While Driving: An Investigation of Young Novice Driver (YND) Behaviour." Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour 77, no. : 209-220.

Journal article
Published: 12 May 2020 in Accident Analysis & Prevention
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This study investigates the impact that delta-V, the relative change in vehicle velocity pre- and post-crash, has on the severity of motor vehicle collisions (MVCs). We study injury severity using two metrics for each occupant – the number of injuries suffered, and the probability of suffering a serious or worse (MAIS 3+) injury. We use a cross-sectional set of generally-representative MVC data between 2010 and 2015 as a basis for our research. Collision factors that influence the crash environment are combined with the injuries that were suffered in MVCs. The influence of delta-V is captured using a mediation analysis, whereby delta-V acts as the focal point between crash factors and injury outcome. The mediation approach adds to existing research by presenting a detailed view of the relationship between injury severity, delta-V and other collision factors. We find evidence of competitive mediation, wherein a collision factor’s positive association with injury severity is offset by a negative association with delta-V. Neglecting to include delta-V in our study would have let the factor’s association with injury severity go undiscovered. In addition, certain collision factors are found to be related to injury severity solely because of delta-V, while others are found to have a significant impact regardless of delta-V. Our results support the multitude of policy recommendations that promote seatbelt use and warn against alcohol-impaired driving, and support the proliferation of safety-enabled vehicles whose technology can mitigate the bodily damage associated with detrimental crash types.

ACS Style

Darren Shannon; Finbarr Murphy; Martin Mullins; Luis Rizzi. Exploring the role of delta-V in influencing occupant injury severities – A mediation analysis approach to motor vehicle collisions. Accident Analysis & Prevention 2020, 142, 105577 .

AMA Style

Darren Shannon, Finbarr Murphy, Martin Mullins, Luis Rizzi. Exploring the role of delta-V in influencing occupant injury severities – A mediation analysis approach to motor vehicle collisions. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2020; 142 ():105577.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Darren Shannon; Finbarr Murphy; Martin Mullins; Luis Rizzi. 2020. "Exploring the role of delta-V in influencing occupant injury severities – A mediation analysis approach to motor vehicle collisions." Accident Analysis & Prevention 142, no. : 105577.

Journal article
Published: 29 February 2020 in Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives
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Motor Vehicle Collisions (MVCs) accounted for an economic cost of $242 billion in the United States in 2010. A significant portion (42%) was associated with factors considered for compensation estimates – medical costs, lost earnings and reduced household productivity. This study proposes a methodology that accounts for these costs by using expected compensation costs (ECCs). Our approach differs from prior studies as we consider all injuries suffered by an individual in the MVC, rather than only the ‘most severe’ injury. We estimate ECCs for each injured occupant by linking the injuries suffered with guidelines on injury compensations, allowing for ECCs to be linked directly with collision factors. To demonstrate the ECC system, we conduct a cross-sectional mediation analysis to study the relationships between collisions and compensation. delta-V (the change in a vehicle's speed pre- and post-crash) remains a primary factor in the severity of MVCs and so it serves as a focal point in our study. We find that some collision factors influence compensation estimates because of the effects of delta-V, while others influence ECCs regardless of delta-V. The ECC system we introduce can mitigate litigation risk and highlight future approaches to road safety, as it bridges the gap between crash characteristics, injuries suffered, and economic damage. Our results support policy recommendations that promote seatbelt use and warn against alcohol-impaired driving, and support the proliferation of safety-enabled vehicles whose technology can mitigate the economic damage associated with detrimental crash types.

ACS Style

Darren Shannon; Luis Rizzi; Finbarr Murphy; Martin Mullins. Exploring the price of motor vehicle collisions – A compensation cost approach. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 2020, 4, 100097 .

AMA Style

Darren Shannon, Luis Rizzi, Finbarr Murphy, Martin Mullins. Exploring the price of motor vehicle collisions – A compensation cost approach. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives. 2020; 4 ():100097.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Darren Shannon; Luis Rizzi; Finbarr Murphy; Martin Mullins. 2020. "Exploring the price of motor vehicle collisions – A compensation cost approach." Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 4, no. : 100097.

Articles
Published: 17 September 2019 in Cybernetics and Systems
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This article aims to introduce a degree of technological and ethical realism to the framing of autonomous vehicle perception and decisionality. The objective is to move the socioethical dialog surrounding autonomous vehicle decisionality from the dominance of “trolley framings” to more pressing ethical issues. The article argues that more realistic ethical framings of autonomous vehicle technologies should focus on the matters of HMI, machine perception, classification, and data privacy, which are some distance from the decisionality framing premise of the MIT Moral Machine experiment. To support this claim the article appeals to state-of-the-art technologies and emerging technologies concerning autonomous vehicle perception and decisionality, as a means to inform and frame ethical contexts. This is further supported by considering a context specific ethical framing for each time phase we anticipate regarding emerging autonomous vehicle technology.

ACS Style

Martin Cunneen; Martin Mullins; Finbarr Murphy; Darren Shannon; Irini Furxhi; Cian Ryan. Autonomous Vehicles and Avoiding the Trolley (Dilemma): Vehicle Perception, Classification, and the Challenges of Framing Decision Ethics. Cybernetics and Systems 2019, 51, 59 -80.

AMA Style

Martin Cunneen, Martin Mullins, Finbarr Murphy, Darren Shannon, Irini Furxhi, Cian Ryan. Autonomous Vehicles and Avoiding the Trolley (Dilemma): Vehicle Perception, Classification, and the Challenges of Framing Decision Ethics. Cybernetics and Systems. 2019; 51 (1):59-80.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Martin Cunneen; Martin Mullins; Finbarr Murphy; Darren Shannon; Irini Furxhi; Cian Ryan. 2019. "Autonomous Vehicles and Avoiding the Trolley (Dilemma): Vehicle Perception, Classification, and the Challenges of Framing Decision Ethics." Cybernetics and Systems 51, no. 1: 59-80.

Journal article
Published: 01 April 2018 in Accident Analysis & Prevention
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An extensive number of research studies have attempted to capture the factors that influence the severity of vehicle impacts. The high number of risks facing all traffic participants has led to a gradual increase in sophisticated data collection schemes linking crash characteristics to subsequent severity measures. This study serves as a departure from previous research by relating injuries suffered in road traffic accidents to expected trauma compensation payouts and deriving a quantitative cost function. Data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) Crash Injury Research (CIREN) database for the years 2005–2014 is combined with the Book of Quantum, an Irish governmental document that offers guidelines on the appropriate compensation to be awarded for injuries sustained in accidents. A multiple linear regression is carried out to identify the crash factors that significantly influence expected compensation costs and compared to ordered and multinomial logit models. The model offers encouraging results given the inherent variation expected in vehicular incidents and the subjectivity influencing compensation payout judgments, attaining an adjusted-R2R2 fit of 20.6% when uninfluential factors are removed. It is found that relative speed at time of impact and dark conditions increase the expected costs, while rear-end incidents, incident sustained in van-based trucks and incidents sustained while turning result in lower expected compensations. The number of airbags available in the vehicle is also a significant factor. The scalar-outcome approach used in this research offers an alternative methodology to the discrete-outcome models that dominate traffic safety analyses. The results also raise queries on the future development of claims reserving (capital allocations earmarked for future expected claims payments) as advanced driver assistant systems (ADASs) seek to eradicate the most frequent types of crash factors upon which insurance mathematics base their assumptions.

ACS Style

Darren Shannon; Finbarr Murphy; Martin Mullins; Julian Eggert. Applying crash data to injury claims - an investigation of determinant factors in severe motor vehicle accidents. Accident Analysis & Prevention 2018, 113, 244 -256.

AMA Style

Darren Shannon, Finbarr Murphy, Martin Mullins, Julian Eggert. Applying crash data to injury claims - an investigation of determinant factors in severe motor vehicle accidents. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2018; 113 ():244-256.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Darren Shannon; Finbarr Murphy; Martin Mullins; Julian Eggert. 2018. "Applying crash data to injury claims - an investigation of determinant factors in severe motor vehicle accidents." Accident Analysis & Prevention 113, no. : 244-256.

Chapter
Published: 01 January 2018 in Development and Implementation of Health Technology Assessment
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The third and final pillar of Solvency II deals with reporting requirements. As explained briefly in the introduction section, insurance undertakings are required to submit information covered under Pillar Three to the authorities in order to qualify for supervision. This information is comprised of either qualitative and quantitative elements or any appropriate combination thereof (Directive 2009/138/EC, art. 35).

ACS Style

Maria Heep-Altiner; Martin Mullins; Torsten Rohlfs; Marius Eberle; Manuel Falk; Vanessa Haeusler; Raphael Kuhn; Nicolas Limberg; Konrad Schultheiß; Fabienne Sebralla; Darren Shannon. Application of the Data Model: Pillar Three. Development and Implementation of Health Technology Assessment 2018, 141 -199.

AMA Style

Maria Heep-Altiner, Martin Mullins, Torsten Rohlfs, Marius Eberle, Manuel Falk, Vanessa Haeusler, Raphael Kuhn, Nicolas Limberg, Konrad Schultheiß, Fabienne Sebralla, Darren Shannon. Application of the Data Model: Pillar Three. Development and Implementation of Health Technology Assessment. 2018; ():141-199.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maria Heep-Altiner; Martin Mullins; Torsten Rohlfs; Marius Eberle; Manuel Falk; Vanessa Haeusler; Raphael Kuhn; Nicolas Limberg; Konrad Schultheiß; Fabienne Sebralla; Darren Shannon. 2018. "Application of the Data Model: Pillar Three." Development and Implementation of Health Technology Assessment , no. : 141-199.