We test the hypothesis that climate and environmental conditions are becoming favorable for dengue transmission in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Mean Sea Level (MSL), Wind, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Air Surface Temperature (AST), Rainfall, and confirmed dengue cases were analyzed. We evaluated the dengue incidence and environmental data with Principal Component Analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient, Mann-Kendall trend test and logistic regressions. Results indicated that dry days are increasing and wet days are decreasing. MSL is increasing, posing higher risk of dengue as the perimeter of the San Juan Bay estuary expands and shorelines move inland. Warming is evident with both SST and AST. Maximum and minimum air surface temperature extremes have increased. Between 1992 and 2011, dengue transmission increased by a factor of 3.4 (95% CI: 1.9–6.1) for each 1 °C increase in SST. For the period 2007–2011 alone, dengue incidence reached a factor of 5.2 (95% CI: 1.9–13.9) for each 1 °C increase in SST. Teenagers are consistently the age group that suffers the most infections in San Juan. Results help understand possible impacts of different climate change scenarios in planning for social adaptation and public health interventions.

The cross-shelf advection of coastal waters into the deep Gulf of Mexico is important for the transport of nutrients or potential pollutants. Twenty years of ocean color satellite imagery document such cross-shelf transport events via three export pathways in the Gulf of Mexico: from the Campeche Bank toward the central Gulf, from the Campeche Bank toward the Florida Straits, and from the Mississippi Delta to the Florida Straits. A catalog of these events was created based on the visual examination of 7280 daily satellite images. Water transport from the Campeche Bank to the central Gulf occurred frequently and with no seasonal pattern. Transport from Campeche Bank to the Florida Straits occurred episodically, when the Loop Current was retracted. Four such episodes were identified, between about December and June, in 2002, 2009, 2016, and 2017, each lasting ~3 months. Movement of Mississippi River water to the Florida Straits was more frequent and showed near seasonal occurrence, when the Loop Current was extended, while the Mississippi River discharge seems to play only a secondary role. Eight such episodes were identified—in 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2011, 2014, and 2015—each lasting ~3 months during summer. The 2015 episode lasted 5 months.

Enterococci concentration variability at Escambron Beach, San Juan, Puerto Rico, was examined in the context of environmental conditions observed during 2005–2015. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST), turbidity, direct normal irradiance, and dew point were combined with local precipitation, winds, and mean sea level (MSL) observations in a stepwise multiple regression analyses (Akaike Information Criteria model selection). Precipitation, MSL, irradiance, SST, and turbidity explained 20% of the variation in observed enterococci concentrations based upon these analyses. Changes in these parameters preceded increases in enterococci concentrations by 24 h up to 11 days, particularly during positive anomalies of turbidity, SST, and 480–960 mm of accumulated (4 days) precipitation, which relates to bacterial ecology. Weaker, yet still significant, increases in enterococci concentrations were also observed during positive dew point anomalies. Enterococci concentrations decreased with elevated irradiance and MSL anomalies. Unsafe enterococci concentrations per US EPA recreational water quality guidelines occurred when 4-day cumulative precipitation ranged 481–960 mm; irradiance < 667 W·m⁻²; daily average turbidity anomaly >0.005 sr⁻¹; SST anomaly >0.8 °C; and 3-day average MSL anomaly <−18.8 cm. This case study shows that satellite-derived environmental data can be used to inform future water quality studies and protect human health.

Coastal water-quality is both a primary driver and also a consequence of coastal ecosystem health. Turbidity, a measure of dissolved and particulate water-quality matter, is a proxy for water quality, and varies on daily to interannual periods. Turbidity is influenced by a variety of factors, including algal particles, colored dissolved organic matter, and suspended sediments. Identifying which factors drive trends and extreme events in turbidity in an estuary helps environmental managers and decision makers plan for and mitigate against water-quality issues. Efforts to do so on large spatial scales have been hampered due to limitations of turbidity data, including coarse and irregular temporal resolution and poor spatial coverage. We addressed these issues by deriving a proxy for turbidity using ocean color satellite products for 11 Gulf of Mexico estuaries from 2000 to 2014 on weekly, monthly, seasonal, and annual time-steps. Drivers were identified using Akaike’s Information Criterion and multiple regressions to model turbidity against precipitation, wind speed, U and V wind vectors, river discharge, water level, and El Nino Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation climate indices. Turbidity variability was best explained by wind speed across estuaries for both time-series and extreme turbidity events, although more dynamic patterns were found between estuaries over various time steps.