One of the main characteristics of wind power is the inherent variability and unpredictability of the generation source, even in the short-term. To cope with this drawback, hydro pumped-storage units have been proposed in the literature as a good complement to wind generation due to their ability to manage positive and negative energy imbalances over time. This paper investigates the combined optimization of a wind farm and a pumped-storage facility from the point of view of a generation company in a market environment. The optimization model is formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming problem with two random parameters: market prices and wind generation. The optimal bids for the day-ahead spot market are the ldquohere and nowrdquo decisions while the optimal operation of the facilities are the recourse variables. A joint configuration is modeled and compared with an uncoordinated operation. A realistic example case is presented where the developed models are tested with satisfactory results.
1 April 2015 in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
In competitive electricity markets, in addition to the uncertainty of exogenous variables such as energy demand, water inflows, and availability of generation units and fuel costs, participants are faced with the uncertainty of their competitors' behavior. The analysis of electricity price time series reflects a switching nature, related to discrete changes in competitors' strategies, which can be represented by a set of dynamic models sequenced together by a Markov chain. An input-output hidden Markov model (IOHMM) is proposed for analyzing and forecasting electricity spot prices. The model provides both good predictions in terms of accuracy as well as dynamic information about the market. In this way, different market states are identified and characterized by their more relevant explanatory variables. Moreover, a conditional probability transition matrix governs the probabilities of remaining in the same state, or changing to another, whenever a new market session is opened. The model has been successfully applied to real clearing prices in the Spanish electricity market.
1 January 2017 in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews