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The European Green Deal (EGD) is the most ambitious decarbonisation strategy currently envisaged, with a complex mix of different instruments aiming at improving the sustainability of the development patterns of the European Union in the next 30 years. The intrinsic complexity brings key open questions on the cost and effectiveness of the strategy. In this paper we propose a novel methodological approach to soft-linking two modelling tools, a systems thinking (ST) and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, in order to provide a broader ex-ante policy evaluation process. We use ST to highlight the main economic feedback loops the EGD strategy might trigger. We then quantify these loops with a scenario analysis developed in a dynamic CGE framework. Our main finding is that such a soft-linking approach allows discovery of multiple channels and spillover effects across policy instruments that might help improve the policy mix design. Specifically, positive spillovers arise from the adoption of a revenue recycling mechanism that ensures strong support for the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies. Such spillover effects benefit not only the European Union (EU) market but also non-EU countries via trade-based technology transfer, with a net positive effect in terms of global emissions reduction.
Andrea Bassi; Valeria Costantini; Elena Paglialunga. Modelling the European Union Sustainability Transition: A Soft-Linking Approach. Sustainability 2021, 13, 6303 .
AMA StyleAndrea Bassi, Valeria Costantini, Elena Paglialunga. Modelling the European Union Sustainability Transition: A Soft-Linking Approach. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (11):6303.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndrea Bassi; Valeria Costantini; Elena Paglialunga. 2021. "Modelling the European Union Sustainability Transition: A Soft-Linking Approach." Sustainability 13, no. 11: 6303.
We propose an analysis of the multiple linkages between violent conflicts, weather-related variables and socio-economic conditions based on an original geo-referenced database covering the entire African continent with a grid resolution of 1° × 1° for the period 1990–2016. We implement a dynamic spatial panel Durbin model that allows us: (1) confirming well-known mechanisms in violent conflicts analysis; (2) assessing the relevance of persistency of violence over time; (3) adding new insights related to the role of spatial relations associated to contagion. In particular, the spatial specification allows us quantifying the contagious effect across space, that persists in a radius of more than 300 km. Weather-related variables seem to play a prominent role in shaping contagion with different strength depending on the temporal horizon adopted. The main implications we derive are twofold: (1) adaptation policies designed for reducing vulnerability of local communities to climate change must be integrated with direct actions for peacekeeping in order to break the persistency of violence over time that is responsible for failures of the adaptation actions themselves; (2) synergies from simultaneous actions developed for different local communities must drive geographical coordination of integrated policies in order to capture the positive elements of cooperation associated to geographical spillovers while breaking violence contagion across neighbours.
Federica Cappelli; Caterina Conigliani; Valeria Costantini; Keti Lelo; Anil Markandya; Elena Paglialunga; Giorgia Sforna. Do spatial interactions fuel the climate-conflict vicious cycle? The case of the African continent. Journal of Spatial Econometrics 2020, 1, 1 -52.
AMA StyleFederica Cappelli, Caterina Conigliani, Valeria Costantini, Keti Lelo, Anil Markandya, Elena Paglialunga, Giorgia Sforna. Do spatial interactions fuel the climate-conflict vicious cycle? The case of the African continent. Journal of Spatial Econometrics. 2020; 1 (1):1-52.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFederica Cappelli; Caterina Conigliani; Valeria Costantini; Keti Lelo; Anil Markandya; Elena Paglialunga; Giorgia Sforna. 2020. "Do spatial interactions fuel the climate-conflict vicious cycle? The case of the African continent." Journal of Spatial Econometrics 1, no. 1: 1-52.
This paper aims to analyse the evolution of energy efficiency systems for the residential sector of EU countries over the past twenty years and the associated process of structural change occurred in EU economies. To this purpose, we develop a set of indicators to measure some significant characteristics of the energy efficiency systems focusing on the residential sector and map European countries in terms of four dimensions: energy system, innovation pattern, policy mix design and export competitiveness. Building on these indicators we develop a cluster analysis identifying non-arbitrary homogeneous country groups according to several characteristics in order to investigate the co-evolution of technological trajectories, energy use performance and export competitiveness in this specific domain. Results suggest the distinction of EU countries into four groups, that are individually and comparatively scrutinized shedding light on how the four dimensions here considered dynamically evolved and interacted within and across countries. Empirical findings suggest that the design of the domestic policy mix may influence technological trajectories and structural change processes. Such effect appears to be related to the quality and dimension of international relationships with main economic partners.
Valeria Costantini; Francesco Crespi; Elena Paglialunga; Giorgia Sforna. System transition and structural change processes in the energy efficiency of residential sector: Evidence from EU countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 2019, 53, 309 -329.
AMA StyleValeria Costantini, Francesco Crespi, Elena Paglialunga, Giorgia Sforna. System transition and structural change processes in the energy efficiency of residential sector: Evidence from EU countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. 2019; 53 ():309-329.
Chicago/Turabian StyleValeria Costantini; Francesco Crespi; Elena Paglialunga; Giorgia Sforna. 2019. "System transition and structural change processes in the energy efficiency of residential sector: Evidence from EU countries." Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 53, no. : 309-329.
Massimiliano Corradini; Valeria Costantini; Anil Markandya; Elena Paglialunga; Giorgia Sforna. A dynamic assessment of instrument interaction and timing alternatives in the EU low-carbon policy mix design. Energy Policy 2018, 120, 73 -84.
AMA StyleMassimiliano Corradini, Valeria Costantini, Anil Markandya, Elena Paglialunga, Giorgia Sforna. A dynamic assessment of instrument interaction and timing alternatives in the EU low-carbon policy mix design. Energy Policy. 2018; 120 ():73-84.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMassimiliano Corradini; Valeria Costantini; Anil Markandya; Elena Paglialunga; Giorgia Sforna. 2018. "A dynamic assessment of instrument interaction and timing alternatives in the EU low-carbon policy mix design." Energy Policy 120, no. : 73-84.
This paper aims to analyse the evolution of energy efficiency systems for the residential sector of EU countries over the past twenty years and the associated process of structural change occurred in EU economies. To this purpose, we develop a set of indicators to measure some significant characteristics of the energy efficiency systems and map European countries in terms of four dimensions: energy system, innovation system, policy mix design and export competitiveness. Building on these indicators we develop a cluster analysis identifying non-arbitrary homogeneous country groups according to several characteristics in order to investigate the co-evolution of technological trajectories, energy use performance and structural change in this specific domain. Results suggest the distinction of EU countries into four groups, that are individually and comparatively scrutinized shedding light on how the four dimensions here considered dynamically evolved and interacted within and across countries. Empirical findings reveal that the design of the domestic policy mix may play a key role in shaping technological trajectories and structural change processes that in turns allow an increase in external competitiveness performance. Such positive impact appears to be closely related to the quality and quantity of international relationships with main economic partners.
Valeria Mname Costantini; Francesco Mname Crespi; Elena Mname Paglialunga; Giorgia Mname Sforna. System Transition and Structural Change Processes in the Energy Efficiency of Residential Sector: Evidence from EU Countries. SSRN Electronic Journal 2018, 1 .
AMA StyleValeria Mname Costantini, Francesco Mname Crespi, Elena Mname Paglialunga, Giorgia Mname Sforna. System Transition and Structural Change Processes in the Energy Efficiency of Residential Sector: Evidence from EU Countries. SSRN Electronic Journal. 2018; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleValeria Mname Costantini; Francesco Mname Crespi; Elena Mname Paglialunga; Giorgia Mname Sforna. 2018. "System Transition and Structural Change Processes in the Energy Efficiency of Residential Sector: Evidence from EU Countries." SSRN Electronic Journal , no. : 1.
The Paris Agreement reached during the COP21 in December 2015 represents a timid step towards burden sharing in emission mitigation involving all countries. However, given the heterogeneity of countries and their relative differences in vulnerability to climate change damage and in mitigation costs, compensating schemes are required to reach an effective agreement. This paper investigates the role of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) as a potential compensating measure for both adaptation and mitigation actions under a global climate regime. A dynamic climate-economy computable general equilibrium model (GDynEP) is developed by including both a monetary valuation of climate change damage costs and two alternative methods to determine the allocation of GCF resources among receiving countries and between adaptation and mitigation contributions. Results show that, despite the high costs associated with the implementation of mitigation actions, most developing countries would face even higher costs in case of inaction. Furthermore, the preference of a country for an allocation method is strongly influenced by its characteristics and needs. Consequently, a main policy conclusion is to design country-specific sharing rules for GCF in order to maximize country participation in a global agreement
Alessandro Antimiani; Valeria Costantini; Anil Markandya; Elena Paglialunga; Giorgia Sforna. The Green Climate Fund as an effective compensatory mechanism in global climate negotiations. Environmental Science & Policy 2017, 77, 49 -68.
AMA StyleAlessandro Antimiani, Valeria Costantini, Anil Markandya, Elena Paglialunga, Giorgia Sforna. The Green Climate Fund as an effective compensatory mechanism in global climate negotiations. Environmental Science & Policy. 2017; 77 ():49-68.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlessandro Antimiani; Valeria Costantini; Anil Markandya; Elena Paglialunga; Giorgia Sforna. 2017. "The Green Climate Fund as an effective compensatory mechanism in global climate negotiations." Environmental Science & Policy 77, no. : 49-68.
Valeria Costantini; Francesco Crespi; Giovanni Marin; Elena Paglialunga. Eco-innovation, sustainable supply chains and environmental performance in European industries 1 1We gratefully acknowledge the support by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 649186 – ISIGrowth. The comments and suggestions by three anonymous referees are also acknowledged. The usual disclaimers apply. Journal of Cleaner Production 2017, 155, 141 -154.
AMA StyleValeria Costantini, Francesco Crespi, Giovanni Marin, Elena Paglialunga. Eco-innovation, sustainable supply chains and environmental performance in European industries 1 1We gratefully acknowledge the support by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 649186 – ISIGrowth. The comments and suggestions by three anonymous referees are also acknowledged. The usual disclaimers apply. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2017; 155 ():141-154.
Chicago/Turabian StyleValeria Costantini; Francesco Crespi; Giovanni Marin; Elena Paglialunga. 2017. "Eco-innovation, sustainable supply chains and environmental performance in European industries 1 1We gratefully acknowledge the support by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 649186 – ISIGrowth. The comments and suggestions by three anonymous referees are also acknowledged. The usual disclaimers apply." Journal of Cleaner Production 155, no. : 141-154.
Economic damage from climate change includes several aspects that need to be considered at the global and regional levels to achieve an equitable common solution to global warming. The economic literature reviewed here analyzes this issue under three general perspectives. First, the analytical estimation of the linkages between damages in monetary terms and climate variables, as projections of temperature, precipitation, and frequency of extreme events, is rapidly evolving. Damage functions are included in complex economic models in order to calculate the economic impact of the climate change on economic output and growth, thus informing the debate on the amount of resources that should be devoted to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and limiting climate damages. The choice of the geographical aggregation in this respect is a crucial aspect to be considered if policy advice is to be formulated on the basis of model results. The higher the level of regional detail, the more reliable the results are in terms of geographical distribution of economic damages. Second, the precise estimation of the costs associated with different damages caused by climate change is attracting growing interest. Climate costs present a wide range of heterogeneity for several reasons, such as the different formulation of the damage function adopted, the modeling design of the economic impact, the temporal horizon considered, and the differentiation across sectors. Two broad categories of analysis are relevant. The first refers to the choice of the sectoral dimension under investigation, where some studies cover multiple sectors and their interactions, while others analyze specific sectors in depth. The second classification criterion refers to the choice of the economic aspects estimated, where a strand of literature analyzes only market-based costs, while other analyses also include non-market (or intangible) damages. The most common sectors investigated are agriculture, forestry, health, energy, coastal zones and sea level rise, extreme events, tourism, ecosystem, industry, air quality, and catastrophic damages. Most studies consider market-based costs, while non-market impacts need to be better detailed in economic models. Third, the computation of a single number through the analytical framework of the social costs of carbon (SCC) represents a key aspect of the process of adapting complex results in order to properly inform the political debate. SCC represents the marginal global damage cost of carbon emissions and can also be interpreted as the economic value of damages avoided for unitary GHG emission reduction. Several uncertainties still influence the robustness of the SCC analytical framework, such as the choice of the discount rate, which strongly influences the role of SCC in supporting or not mitigation action in the short term. Although the debate on the economic damages arising from climate change is flourishing, several aspects still need to be...
Anil Markandya; Elena Paglialunga; Valeria Costantini; Giorgia Sforna. Global and Regional Economic Damages from Climate Change. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Environmental Science 2017, 1 .
AMA StyleAnil Markandya, Elena Paglialunga, Valeria Costantini, Giorgia Sforna. Global and Regional Economic Damages from Climate Change. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Environmental Science. 2017; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnil Markandya; Elena Paglialunga; Valeria Costantini; Giorgia Sforna. 2017. "Global and Regional Economic Damages from Climate Change." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Environmental Science , no. : 1.
The European Union (EU) has developed a strategy to mitigate climate change by cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fostering low carbon technologies. However, the risk of implementing unilateral policies is that distortive effects are generated at the global scale affecting world energy prices, international competitiveness and the geographical allocation of carbon intensive production processes. Using a dynamic CGE model, we assess the rate of carbon leakage and adverse impacts on competitiveness in a number of scenarios over the period 2010–2050. According to the model results, we highlight two major issues. First, in the case of a unilateral EU climate policy, carbon leakage and negative effects on competitiveness are quite serious. Anti-leakage measures can only mitigate leakage and adverse economic impacts on competitiveness in a limited way. On the contrary, an optimality analysis addressing the environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and political feasibility of alternative policy solutions reveals that the EU long term decarbonisation strategy by investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy might ensure protection of vulnerable manufacturing activities while enhancing the competitiveness of technologically-advanced industries.
Alessandro Antimiani; Valeria Costantini; Onno Kuik; Elena Paglialunga. Mitigation of adverse effects on competitiveness and leakage of unilateral EU climate policy: An assessment of policy instruments. Ecological Economics 2016, 128, 246 -259.
AMA StyleAlessandro Antimiani, Valeria Costantini, Onno Kuik, Elena Paglialunga. Mitigation of adverse effects on competitiveness and leakage of unilateral EU climate policy: An assessment of policy instruments. Ecological Economics. 2016; 128 ():246-259.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlessandro Antimiani; Valeria Costantini; Onno Kuik; Elena Paglialunga. 2016. "Mitigation of adverse effects on competitiveness and leakage of unilateral EU climate policy: An assessment of policy instruments." Ecological Economics 128, no. : 246-259.
Alessandro Antimiani; Valeria Costantini; Elena Paglialunga. The sensitivity of climate-economy CGE models to energy-related elasticity parameters: Implications for climate policy design. Economic Modelling 2015, 51, 38 -52.
AMA StyleAlessandro Antimiani, Valeria Costantini, Elena Paglialunga. The sensitivity of climate-economy CGE models to energy-related elasticity parameters: Implications for climate policy design. Economic Modelling. 2015; 51 ():38-52.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlessandro Antimiani; Valeria Costantini; Elena Paglialunga. 2015. "The sensitivity of climate-economy CGE models to energy-related elasticity parameters: Implications for climate policy design." Economic Modelling 51, no. : 38-52.