Due to climate change and human activities over the last fifty years, the spring flow volume of karst groundwater has sharply diminished in China. Climate change is one of the critical factors that initiates a series of karst hydrogeologic and water ecological environmental problems, because the precipitation shows a decreasing trend while the temperature shows an increasing trend. The Jinci Spring is one of the largest, most famous springs in northern China. This study employed data from the Taiyuan Meteorological Station and ten precipitation stations in and around the Jinci Spring region as well as the runoff data gathered from two hydrological monitoring stations during 1960–2012. The sliding average method and the Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the variation tendency of precipitation, temperature, and land evaporation in this area. Finally, the following were calculated: the varying pattern of the karst groundwater recharge amount and the response of the recharge amount to precipitation, land evaporation, and river runoff by quantitative analysis. The results indicated that the precipitation and land evaporation amount decreased at first and then subsequently increased. Likewise, the variation trend of the karst groundwater recharge amount in the spring region was roughly consistent with the precipitation variation pattern. In contrast, the temperature displayed an increasing trend. The climate change resulted in a reduction of the karst groundwater recharge amount, and it had the greatest influence in the 1990s, which caused the karst groundwater recharge amount to decrease 26.75 mm as compared to that of the 1960s (about 39.68% lower than that of the 1960s). The Jinci Spring had zero flow during this period. The reduction in precipitation was one of main factors that caused the cutoff of the Jinci Spring.

Investigating the cycling characteristics of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in karst groundwater within arid and semi-arid regions is crucial for understanding its role in the global carbon cycle and its contribution to atmospheric carbon sinks. This study is centered on the Liulin Spring area of North China, based on sampling data from April 2019. We employed hydrogeochemical analysis and environmental isotopic tracing methods to (1) characterize the spatial distribution of DIC along the groundwater flow path; (2) elucidate the sources of HCO₃⁻; (3) calibrate groundwater ¹⁴C ages. Results indicate that the HCO₃⁻ concentration initially increases and then decreases along the flow path, peaking in the spring discharge zone. Conversely, δ¹³C values initially decrease and then increase, reaching a minimum in the discharge zone, exhibiting a negative correlation with the HCO₃⁻ concentration. The contribution of soil/biogenic CO₂ dissolution to HCO₃⁻ ranges from 26% to 62%, with the highest values (56–62%) observed in recharge, runoff, and discharge zones and lower values (26–49%) observed in stagnant zones; this contribution generally decreases towards the western boundary. Calibrated ¹⁴C ages are significantly reduced and align better with expected groundwater dynamics.

Karst springs are vital water sources in arid and semi-arid regions, with discharge governed by natural recharge conditions and increasingly influenced by human activities. This study investigates Liulin Spring on the eastern margin of the Ordos Basin using hydro-meteorological data (1956–2024), groundwater extraction records (1974–2024), and a restored discharge series that removes the direct effect of abstraction. Evolutionary patterns, drivers, and lagged responses were analysed using the trend-free pre-whitening Mann–Kendall test, Pettitt and moving t-tests, double-mass curve analysis, and detrended and prewhitened cross-correlation, and a parsimonious multiple linear regression (MLR) model with a persistence benchmark and independent temporal validation was constructed for prediction. The results reveal a significant seven-decade decline in four stages—stability, sharp decline, gradual attenuation, and rebound—with a historic minimum of 1.17 m³/s in 2021. Double-mass analysis showed the precipitation–response slope falling to 18.2% of the natural baseline (1956–1973), indicating that the precipitation–discharge relationship has been severely weakened under sustained anthropogenic disturbance; the contrast between the observed and restored double-mass curves identifies groundwater abstraction as the principal stressor, while the individual contributions of coal mine dewatering, land-use change, and other factors cannot be separated by this analysis alone. The restored discharge is strongly persistent (lag-1 ACF = 0.9392); after linear detrending and AR prewhitening, the robust lagged response to precipitation and river runoff concentrates at approximately 2 years, whereas the previously reported multi-decadal correlation peaks are artefacts of the common trend and autocorrelation. The MLR model (training R² = 0.925) is outperformed by a persistence baseline for one-step-ahead prediction but provides skilful multi-step scenario forecasts; hindcast errors for 2023–2024 are below 0.24 m³/s. Scenario forecasts for 2025–2027 under dry, normal, and wet precipitation conditions (1.33–1.63 m³/s) suggest a stable-to-weak stage rather than a sustained recovery. This study provides a methodological reference for attribution and lag analysis of analogous karst springs, for which the model parameters require site-specific recalibration.